Can pig prices continue to rise? After entering the month of 10, the pig price soared, the market constantly hit a new high, and the increase of pig price also showed an intensified trend. The pig price has risen from "prefix 5" to "prefix 8". Can pig prices continue to rise?
Can pig prices continue to rise? 1 Recently, the domestic pig price has reached a new high, and the pig price has soared. In less than 20 days, 1 kg of live pigs has increased nearly to 3 yuan, which is really good for farmers, and farmers are finally loyal to their wives.
Pig prices rose sharply against the trend, and the market jumped to the "8 prefix". However, farmers are unwilling. How long can the price of pigs go up? It lingers in the hearts of many farmers!
Tomorrow, the price of pigs in many places in the country will continue to rise, and the local price will be adjusted!
101On October 26th, the national pig price showed an increase of 18, with three places flat and five places falling. Specifically:
The price of pigs in the north stopped rising in many places, and the local decline was adjusted, taking the lead in breaking the rising market and opening a downward model. The price difference between north and south is not obvious, and there is no motivation to transfer pigs from north to south.
Pig prices in the south continue to rise in an all-round way. The price of pigs in the south has generally risen to the "8 prefix", while in the Sichuan-Chongqing market in South China, the price of pigs has the enthusiasm of "rushing to 9"!
Pig prices have risen to a "new record", and farmers have not seen such a gas-lifting market for too long. With the sharp rise of this round of pig prices, for self-supporting farmers, now, the slaughter has gradually ushered in a "profit" cycle, and farmers' vision of expecting pig prices to rebound to the cost line has gradually come true. How long can the price of pigs go up?
I think the pig price may enter a period of shock adjustment, and the specific analysis is as follows:
1, consumer demand is weak. The price of live pigs has risen sharply, and so has the price of white pigs on the market. Downstream traders' sentiment of receiving goods has declined, ordinary consumers' resistance to rising prices has increased, and pork consumption in the market has become tired, which is undoubtedly bad news for the rising pig price!
The market output will increase. At the end of the month, there are many plans for large pig enterprises to slaughter. As the price of pigs rises to the "8 prefix", farmers' mood of going out on rallies may rebound.
In addition, pork stocks in slaughterhouses and distributors are still at a high level. If the frozen products accumulated in the previous period are out of the warehouse one after another, the rising trend of pig prices will be restrained to some extent.
Can pig prices continue to rise? After entering 10, the price of pigs soared, the market kept hitting new highs, and the increase of pig prices also showed a growing trend. As of June 25th 10, the average slaughter price of lean pigs in China rose to 16. 19 yuan/kg, up more than 50% from the beginning of the month. The price of pigs has risen from "prefix 5" to "prefix 8", which is just not enough.
It is understood that in June this year, the national pig price was 16.5 yuan/kg, down 22.6% from the previous month; In July, the national hog price was 16.43 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from the previous month. In August, the national hog price 15.9 yuan/kg decreased by 3.2% month-on-month and 57.3% year-on-year. The price of live pigs continued to fall below the integer mark, which seriously hit the confidence of farmers. Under the extremely pessimistic expectation, the fat pig began to speed up the slaughter to ease the financial and psychological pressure. With the expected rebound of live pig prices in Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the market sentiment is close to freezing point, the price of live pigs in Northeast China falls below 10 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in various regions of the country continues to approach 10 yuan/kg. As the saying goes, prosperity will decline, and extremes will be reversed. Under the background of deep losses in aquaculture, the market began to eliminate a large number of inefficient sows. As of July, 2002 1 year, the number of fertile sows in China ended the continuous growth of 21month, with a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month. In August, the number of fertile sows decreased to 0.9% from the previous month. According to the growth law of pigs, the number of fertile sows directly determines the number of pigs to be slaughtered after 10 months. Driven by the logic of accelerating the elimination of fertile sows, the pig futures contract LH2207 bottomed out in September 10, and the main contract LH220 1 started to rise steadily after hitting a new low 13365 yuan/ton on September 24.
"This wave of pig price increase was initially started mainly because the country started the second round of central reserve meat storage on June 5438+1October 10, and the storage price and transaction volume exceeded market expectations. At that time, futures prices rebounded sharply, and then spot prices rose sharply. Due to the serious losses in the aquaculture industry before, after the pig price rose, some farmers were reluctant to sell and raised prices again. In addition, before the National Day, aquaculture enterprises and family farms were worried about the spot price correction after the holiday. There was a centralized slaughter at that time, and it was overdrawn before the holiday 10 month. Therefore, the market supply at this stage has declined slightly in the short term. " Kong Lanhai, a pig analyst at Everbright Futures, told the Futures Daily reporter.
Chen Wu, a researcher at Zhongronghuixin Futures, told the reporter that at present, under the situation that the supply of big pigs is in short supply, the price of pigs is rising, the psychology of raising prices at the breeding end is rising, and it is difficult for slaughterhouses to collect pigs, which further supports them. Judging from the profit of aquaculture, the whole industry still loses a lot. However, with the rebound of pig price, the loss has decreased, and the average profit in the self-rearing week is -208.44 yuan/head, which is 27 1.75 yuan/head higher than the previous week. Before June, the income of piglets purchased at the current pig price was-106 1.3 yuan/head, which was 36 1.75 yuan/head higher than the previous week.
Zhang Xiaojun, a live pig analyst at Green Dahua Futures, said that on the one hand, with the cold weather in the north, sausages were cured in advance in some areas, the terminal consumption picked up, and the slaughter volume continued to rise. According to Zhuo Chuang data, the operating rate of domestic key pig slaughtering enterprises showed a continuous upward trend last week, with an average operating rate of 32.88%, up 0.44% from the previous week. At present, pickling enema in some areas has basically ended ahead of schedule, large-scale pickling enema has not yet started, and short-term terminal consumption support has weakened. Pay attention to when the large-scale salt enema in South China will start. On the other hand, the central and local pork storage and storage will continue. Following the central purchasing and storage, Henan Provincial Pork Reserve Work Plan 202 1 was issued to carry out the purchasing and storage of provincial pork reserves. It is reported that the provincial pork reserve is 3,350 tons, and the storage period is 6 months (20211until May 2022).
"It is worth mentioning that the bar pressing, secondary fattening and partial pickling enema were advanced, some consumption was advanced, and the staged supply pressure moved back, overdrawing some of the increase in 65438+February. According to Zhuo Chuang's monitoring data, the national self-operated profit averaged -369.04 yuan/head last week, an increase of 3,065,438 yuan +0.97 yuan/head from the previous month. The average fattening profit of piglets was -538.44 yuan/head, an increase of 428.56 yuan/head from the previous month. The backward pressure on the breeding end and the supply pressure of secondary fattening will offset the recovery of the consumer end to some extent. " Zhang Xiaojun said.
"In addition, customs data show that from June to September, China imported 3,654.38+0.4 million tons of pork. Due to the high import cost of frozen products, the domestic pig price continues to fall, the loss of frozen products is serious, the funds of traders are under pressure, and the domestic frozen products inventory is still at a high level. It is understood that there are still nearly 4 million tons of frozen products waiting for consumption in China, and the continuous rebound of prices is also a favorable opportunity for frozen products to be shipped. As frozen products are sold one after another, it will put pressure on pig prices to a certain extent. " Zhang Xiaojun added.
Chen Wu said that the pig price is expected to continue to strengthen because the farms are optimistic about the price of big pigs in the fourth quarter, showing bias, reducing the amount of slaughter and adjusting the average weight of subsequent slaughter. Although the fourth quarter ushered in a rebound, the most optimistic situation of the cyclical reversal of pig prices is after May next year. The market is generally not optimistic about the pig price in the first half of next year. The key lies in whether piglets died in the fourth quarter of this year, which will directly affect the supply of live pigs in the first half of next year. Need continuous observation.
Yang Xiaoqing of Zhongzhou Futures Pig Division said that as the capital market bottomed out ahead of schedule, pig futures prices first started to stabilize, and the linkage of stock periods changed investors' mentality. The attenuation of short-selling power and the intensification of the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of live pigs have led to the simultaneous upward trend of spot prices of live pigs. At present, the stock of fertile sows in China is still close to 1 10% of the normal stock, and the optimization of the structure of fertile sows will improve the reproductive efficiency. In the future, the relative surplus of live pigs will continue for some time. It is suggested that farmers pay attention to the trend of pig futures prices, treat the market rationally, adjust the structure in time, and follow the trend as planned.
Zhang Xiaojun thinks that, from the perspective of futures, the basis logic of contract trading in recent months and the volume and energy trading logic of contract trading in far months. 2 1 1 1 The contract is close to the delivery month and the operation is close to the spot; 220 1 contract runs around the basis difference, seeing more and moving less, and the upper pressure 16700- 18000 yuan/ton; 2203 contract is short on rallies, and the upper pressure is 15700— 16000 yuan/ton; After 2205, the contract is mainly to wait and see, waiting for the trend to be clear.