1.65438 on February 3, glass futures continued to fluctuate strongly, and the main contract closed up 1.09% to 1939 yuan/ton. According to the analysis of Guolian Futures, from the current situation of the industry, although the demand in the glass market is off-season, there is hope in despair. It can be predicted that it will be an inevitable choice for enterprises to reduce production and demand to pick up. Although the overall glass inventory is much higher than in previous years; However, winter and losses will prompt some enterprises to enter a state of cold repair. According to the seasonal law, production activities have dropped to a low level, but there is a habit of stocking in winter and spring, and the price of glass has risen seasonally, which will continue until February next year. It is speculated that the supply and demand of glass will evolve in a good direction in June 5438+February, so there is a possibility of rebound in spring. However, considering the macro background of the real estate industry and the "peak carbon dioxide emission", the fluctuation center of the glass market will move down. Donghai Futures said that the glass spot trading atmosphere is improving.

Second, the order volume in the terminal market has increased recently, and the price of the original film has risen. Some processing plants store the right amount of goods. The inventory of most manufacturers in Shahe area decreased compared with the previous period; Most manufacturers in Central China have balanced production and sales, and manufacturers still have upward expectations in the short term; The overall shipment in East China is better. The operating rate of enterprises in the float industry was 88.85%, and the capacity utilization rate was 89.69%, up from the previous month and up by about 6 percentage points year-on-year. Longzhong information data shows that the national average price is 2 104 yuan/ton, up 0.5 1% from the previous month. The mainstream price in North China is 2099 yuan/ton; The mainstream price in East China is 2225 yuan/ton; The mainstream price in Central China is 2048 yuan/ton; The mainstream price in South China is 2235 yuan/ton; The mainstream price in Northeast China is 2 1 16 yuan/ton; The mainstream price in southwest China 1972 yuan/ton; The mainstream price in northwest China is 2032 yuan/ton.

Third, under the background of real estate financing or marginal relaxation, the pessimistic demand expectation was revised before, and the futures price trend rebounded. With the weakening of real estate front-end data, stable policy price tone and high glass factory inventory, the glass futures price trend may be stable. Pay attention to whether there are unexpected cold repairs in the upstream when the profit in the market outlook is squeezed. For the market outlook, CITIC Jiantou Futures believes that the current epidemic risk has little impact on market sentiment, and the price has returned to the fundamentals. As of the week of165438+1October 26th, two glass production lines began to stop production. It is estimated that the average weekly output of glass will be reduced by 6,700 tons, and the margin of the supply side will decrease slightly. On the demand side, on the one hand, the marginal relaxation of mortgage and development loans is expected to pick up the market; On the other hand, with the start of downstream deep processing enterprises and the recovery of capacity utilization, the inventory of glass enterprises decreased slightly and the actual demand also improved slightly. There are favorable factors in the fundamentals of supply and demand, which drives the fluctuation of glass prices to strengthen.

4. Da Yue Futures said that fundamentally, the production costs of raw materials and fuels are still at a high level, the profit of glass production has fallen sharply, and the marginal production capacity in the medium and long term has shrunk; The shortage of terminal real estate funds has gradually eased, the demand for replenishment by downstream processing plants and traders has increased, and the rigid demand has picked up and released. Glass stocks melted for three weeks in a row, and the fundamentals continued to pick up. In the short term, it is expected that the glass will oscillate more and the operation will be the main one.