The oil exploration industry directly benefits.
As the most upstream of the petrochemical industry, the oil exploitation industry has become a direct beneficiary of the rise in oil prices. Enterprises with abundant oil reserves are enjoying the benefits of substantial increase in product demand and price. At the same time, high oil prices will also accelerate the development of oil, so the oil equipment industry related to oil development has also become one of the beneficiaries. We suggest that investors focus on crude oil mining enterprises, petroleum engineering contractors, petroleum machinery manufacturers, oil field repair, pipeline transportation and other enterprises, such as China Petroleum, Offshore Oil and Offshore Oil Engineering.
The rise in international oil prices will push up the overall energy price, and the coal industry is the most directly affected industry. As long as the impact of high oil prices on the macro-economy is within an appropriate range, the national economic growth will not regress, and the coal industry as an oil substitute will indirectly benefit.
The cost pressure brought by high oil prices to petrochemical industry is beneficial to coal chemical industry and calcium carbide chemical industry, and chemical enterprises with coal and calcium carbide as raw materials will benefit a lot. Coal chemical enterprises with coal as raw materials have greater cost advantages than chemical enterprises with oil and natural gas as raw materials, such as coal tar, synthetic ammonia and methanol. At the same time, products such as urea made from coal will also benefit relatively. It is suggested to pay attention to Sanjin Sanwei and Wei Yun.
The rise in oil prices will be directly transmitted to energy industries such as electricity, which will make the price of power products rise. However, unlike the direct benefit of the coal industry as a whole, the impact on the power industry cannot be generalized. The rising coal price leads to the rising cost of thermal power, while the costs of hydropower, wind power and nuclear power are basically unchanged, so the rising oil price will divide the power industry, and the advantages of power enterprises mainly adopting emerging power generation methods are highlighted.
Downstream industry is damaged
Generally speaking, the rise of crude oil price is beneficial to both upstream and downstream, but the degree of influence still needs to be considered from many aspects, which mainly depends on the industry's ability to absorb the rise of oil price, including: the proportion of crude oil and other costs caused by the rise of crude oil in the industry's production costs, the industry's ability to transmit prices to the downstream, and the potential to improve the technical level and improve the cost structure.
Different from the upsurge of oil exploitation, the oil refining industry is the most typical downstream industry of crude oil, so it is most dragged down by the rise of international oil prices. At present, the domestic oil refining industry is basically in a state of slight loss, and the international crude oil price has risen, but the domestic refined oil price has not been raised since it was lowered from 5438+ 10, which makes the pressure on oil refining enterprises increase again. At present, under the pressure of rising oil prices, PetroChina and Sinopec have submitted applications for price increase of refined oil products to the National Development and Reform Commission.
However, due to multiple factors, the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission is likely to be delayed, and the time lag of the policy makes it impossible for the refining industry to pass on the costs in time. China Petrochemical Company is a typical petrochemical company in this industry. Due to the sharp rise in international oil prices, the company's oil reserves are relatively limited and the cost pressure is increasing. In addition, due to the remarkable characteristics of government regulation of refined oil prices, it is difficult to transfer the rising cost to downstream industries and consumption fields. China Petroleum, which has benefited from the rising international oil price, is expected to return to A shares in the fourth quarter, further highlighting this contrast effect, so it is difficult to form an effective breakthrough in its share price in the short term.
The impact of rising oil prices on the chemical fiber industry is relatively direct. Synthetic fiber raw materials such as ethylene glycol, PTA, polyester chips, polyester polyester and nylon are directly affected by oil prices. The price of these raw materials is almost entirely driven by cost, and the price increase of synthetic fiber raw materials often exceeds the price increase of its downstream products, thus compressing the profit of synthetic fiber industry.
For the textile and garment industry, the rising trend of raw materials brought by the rising price of crude oil is obvious, and this trend will not change in the medium and long term, which is a great hidden danger for the industry. Because the profit margin of the textile and garment industry has been relatively low, only about 5%-6%, the rising cost may make some small enterprises and middle and low-grade product manufacturers unable to support bankruptcy because the cost rises too fast. But for high-tech, high-end brand clothing manufacturers, the impact is relatively small because of the high gross profit margin.
In the transportation industry, aviation fuel accounts for more than a quarter of the cost of civil aviation, and the rise in oil prices directly leads to a substantial increase in civil aviation costs, so the civil aviation industry is most affected by the rise in oil prices. At the same time, it should be noted that there is a time lag in the adjustment of refined oil. For the aviation industry, July-10 is the peak season for the aviation industry. If the oil price is not raised immediately, the impact on the aviation industry will not be too great. If the fuel surcharge is increased with the price of jet fuel, the cost pressure of airlines can be appropriately reduced, but the ability to reduce it is limited.
For the whole transportation industry, oil prices continue to rise, and transportation enterprises will eventually make up for the losses by raising transportation prices and pass on the cost of rising oil prices to consumers. In a short period of time, it has a certain inhibitory effect on transportation demand, and at the same time, the transportation mode has also changed to a certain extent. For example, the supply of highway and civil aviation transportation is diverted to other modes of transportation such as railway and water transportation.
The transmission effect of rising oil prices has also affected the downstream of petrochemical industry-building materials industry to some extent. Building and building materials, especially chemical building materials, glass, etc. , located in the downstream of the petrochemical industry, is relatively less affected by changes in crude oil prices. However, the rise in oil prices will directly lead to an increase in the production costs of the building materials industry, and the profits of the industry will also be compressed to a certain extent.
Considering the recent sharp rise in oil prices, it is expected that international oil prices will remain relatively high in the next 2-3 months. It is suggested to pay due attention to oil exploration enterprises and coal enterprises, as well as coal chemical industry and oil substitution industries, such as China Petroleum, Offshore Oil, Xishan Coal and Electricity, Yanzhou Coal Industry, Shanxi Sanwei, Yinglite and Zhongtai Chemical Industry.