-Lu You's work on April 1st.

Wheat conquered all mankind.

(History and Popularization of Wheat)

Yuval Harari, an Israeli historian, put forward a question in A Brief History of Mankind: "Did man tame wheat or did wheat tame mankind?" The author thinks that because of wheat, human beings have changed their settlement, and then a series of human development has taken place.

Wheat cultivation began in West Asia around 7000 BC. For China, "wheat" is an exotic product. Shuo Wen Jie Zi explains that the word "wheat" is "Lai Ye", which is the original name of wheat and an exotic crop, and was introduced to China through the early Silk Road. The word "wheat" appeared in Oracle Bone Inscriptions in Shang Dynasty, indicating that people in China began to grow wheat more than 3,000 years ago.

According to the data of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global wheat production in 20 16-20 17 was about 756.5 million tons, the global wheat consumption was about 740 million tons, and the trade volume was about 360 million tons. The main wheat producers are EU-, China, Indian, American, Russian, Canadian, Australian and Pakistani. The wheat output of these countries and regions accounts for about 85% of the world's total wheat output.

The demand for wheat is increasing. According to the data of USDA, from 20 16 to 20 17, the global domestic consumption of wheat reached 739.8 million tons. The 27 countries of the European Union, China, India, Russia and the United States are the main consumers, and the annual consumption of wheat is 65.438+0.28 billion tons, 65.438+0.9 billion tons, 97.65438+0.20 million tons, 78.65 million tons and 3.65438+0.86 million tons respectively. 20 17-20 18 and 20 18-20 19 global wheat consumption is expected to reach about 745 million tons (see the figure below).

The world's major wheat producers are also major consumers.

The supply and demand structure of about 40% of the world's population depends on wheat, which determines the characteristics of the world wheat trade: wide trading scope, large trading volume and many participating countries (see the figure below).

Global wheat trade: centralized export and decentralized import

Source: USDA (2016-2017)

In the evening, the south wind rises and the wheat turns yellow.

(Season and planting distribution of wheat)

According to different seasons, wheat can be divided into winter wheat and spring wheat. Winter wheat refers to wheat sown in autumn or winter, and spring wheat refers to wheat sown in spring or early summer. Wheat is one of the main food crops in China, and the planting area is basically maintained at 23-25 million hectares. The annual output and consumption for many years are 65.438+0 billion-65.438+0.2 billion tons. China's wheat yield per unit area has been increasing in recent years. The provinces with higher yields are Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and Jiangsu, accounting for 80% of the national wheat yield (see the figure below).

Distribution map of wheat yield in China

China is dominated by winter wheat. Planting is generally bounded by the Great Wall, with spring wheat in the north and winter wheat in the south. Because the temperature in the Northeast Plain is too low to grow winter wheat, it has become the main distribution area of spring wheat. North China Plain has become an important distribution area of winter wheat. In March and April, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are not suitable for planting spring wheat because the precipitation is above 450 mm (see the table below).

List of wheat producing areas and growth periods

Source: Public information.

A "wheat" comes down in one continuous line.

(Classification of Wheat)

Wheat is divided into 30 categories and further divided into more than 30 thousand varieties. Plant breeders cultivate new varieties through hybridization (two plants of the same species and different varieties are heterozygous). Breeding wheat will be selected according to its processing quality, good cold tolerance or disease resistance.

Common wheat cultivation are:

(1) can be divided into winter wheat and spring wheat according to sowing season.

(2) According to different skin colors, it can be divided into white wheat and red wheat.

(3) According to the number of horniness or farinaceous endosperm structure, it can be divided into hard wheat and soft wheat.

(4) Based on the above classification, China National Wheat Standard (GB1351-2008+0-2008) classifies wheat into five categories: hard white wheat, soft white wheat, hard red wheat, soft red wheat and mixed wheat.

Small bread, big energy

(Wheat consumption)

Wheat is the second largest grain crop in the world, second only to corn, and its sown area ranks first in the world. In 43 countries in the world, about 40% of the population lives on wheat. Wheat caryopsis is one of the staple foods of human beings. After grinding into flour, it can be made into bread, steamed bread, biscuits, cakes, noodles, fried dough sticks, fried cakes, scones, pancakes, jiaozi, fried dumplings, steamed bread, wonton, egg rolls, instant noodles, rice cakes, pasta and other foods. After fermentation, it can be made into beer, alcohol, vodka or biofuel.

Wheat is rich in starch, protein, fat, minerals, calcium, iron, thiamine, riboflavin, nicotinic acid and vitamin A, etc. Due to different varieties and environmental conditions, the nutritional components vary greatly. Judging from the content of protein, the wheat planted in continental arid climate area is hard and transparent, with protein content as high as 14%-20%, and the gluten is firm and elastic, which is suitable for baking bread. Wheat grains born under wet conditions contain 8%- 10% protein, which is soft and poor in gluten. It can be seen that the influence of geographical climate on the product formation process is very important.

The stronger the gluten of flour, the softer and more delicious the baked bread will be, but you can't make cakes and cookies with this flour, you should use weak gluten flour. At present, the bread production in China is 6.5438+0.6 million tons, which is 654.38+0.5 of the annual output of Germany, a big bread consuming country. In recent years, the diversification of people's dietary choices has increased the per capita bread consumption in China by 10%.

Wheat is made into flour for human consumption, but only a small amount is used to produce starch, alcohol, gluten and so on. The by-products after processing are all high-quality feed for livestock.

Wheat, big business

(Influencing factors of wheat price)

Grain trade is an ancient business. Although wheat is mainly consumed in China, and most countries regard it as an important strategic material, the annual global trade volume of wheat still reaches about 52 billion US dollars. Historically, the price of wheat has remained relatively stable, with only three violent fluctuations in the past 30 years, of which the most violent one occurred in 2007-2008. In September 2007, the persistent drought in eastern Australia led to a serious reduction in wheat production for the second consecutive year. The market forecast that the wheat yield in Australia in 2007 was only 6.5438+0.35 million tons, which was nearly half of the peak of 25 million tons in 2005. Australia is the fifth largest wheat exporter in the world, and its continuous reduction in production has strained the global wheat market. In September 2007, CBOT wheat futures price reached a record high, reaching 87 1 cent/bushel, which was 1 1.4% higher than the lowest point in April 2007. In that year, European wheat production was also reduced and the quality declined, and the market turned to buy American wheat, which led to strong American wheat exports, boosted the export expectations and inventory decline expectations of American wheat in 2007-2008, and pushed the CBOT wheat futures price to reach an incredible 1 349.5 cents/bushel in February 2008, which was 54.9 higher than the highs in September 2007 and 2000. However, with the high yield of wheat in the United States and Europe, and the gradual emergence of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which spread from the financial market to the commodity market, CBOT wheat prices reversed in February 2008. In May 2008, the price once fell below 800 cents/bushel. By June 5438+ 10 when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the CBOT wheat futures price had returned to above 500 cents/bushel. After 10 years, 500 cents/bushel is almost the bottom range of CBOT wheat futures (see the figure below).

Figure CBOT wheat futures closing price (continuous)

Source: wind

As an important food crop in the world, the price of wheat is affected by the cyclical fluctuation of global macro-economy, the change of supply and demand, the change of related commodity prices, the change of wheat purchase and sale policies and the global climate change. In addition, the periodicity and seasonality of wheat production, transportation factors, market speculation and psychological factors, consumers' purchasing power and preferences, and unexpected events will all have a certain impact on the trend of wheat prices.

The difference between two "sisters" (wheat)

(Wheat Futures Contract of Zhengshang Institute)

1993 On May 28th, Zhengshang Institute launched ordinary wheat futures trading, and on March 28th, 2003, it launched high-quality strong gluten wheat futures trading. What's the difference between common wheat and strong wheat?

First of all, these two kinds of wheat have different uses. The quality of flour depends on the raw materials. Ordinary wheat and strong gluten wheat are two different raw materials for producing wheat flour, which are irreplaceable. Pumai is suitable for manual workshops and families, such as making steamed bread, ordinary instant noodles and other foods; Strong wheat is suitable for making industrialized food, such as jiaozi, Lamian Noodles, bread and other foods. The two cannot replace each other.

Second, there is a price difference between ordinary wheat and strong wheat, which is extremely unstable. Judging from the historical price data, the price difference between ordinary wheat and strong wheat ranges from 40 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and once reached 600 yuan/ton. As the raw material of flour, such a large and unstable price difference does not allow investors to hedge with one wheat contract instead of another. The existence of two wheat contracts has brought more convenience to investors, especially to the participation of customers in the hedging industry, which can guide enterprises to use different futures contracts to avoid risks, give play to market functions and promote the stable development of the wheat industry.

Thirdly, from the perspective of production, there is a trade-off relationship between the two. General strong wheat producing areas are also suitable for planting common wheat. In the same producing area, when the price difference between the two increases, the enthusiasm of farmers to grow strong wheat will increase next year; When the price difference narrows, farmers' enthusiasm for planting wheat will increase next year. In the survey, some investors and industry experts also reflected that it is more beneficial to improve the wheat market system and promote the healthy development of the wheat industry to increase weak gluten wheat. At present, the output of weak gluten wheat in China is too small to be listed for the time being.

Fourth, the strong wheat in Pumai is greatly affected by the policy. National policies such as stock market acquisition and reserve are often aimed at Pumai. Although the price of wheat is relatively stable under the influence of national policies, wheat, as a bulk grain variety, has the distinct characteristics of low value and thin profit. The hedging demand of industrial chain enterprises exists objectively, and it is necessary to use futures to find prices and manage risks. However, the price of strong wheat fluctuates greatly, and the demand for business risks is strong, so it has good liquidity in the futures market.

Fifth, the risk-averse groups are different. Common wheat and strong gluten wheat have different main production, main sales areas and uses, which determines the different subjects in the industrial chain. In the case of price fluctuation, these different subjects need to use the futures market to avoid risks. Although cross-variety hedging is an option, empirical research shows that the hedging effect of futures contracts of the same variety is more obvious.

Sixth, from the experience of foreign mature markets, different qualities of wheat can be active at the same time. There are three exchanges in the United States that trade wheat futures contracts. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, Kansas Stock Exchange and Minneapolis Stock Exchange trade wheat, hard red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat respectively. At present, all three varieties are running well, with sufficient liquidity and remarkable functions. This shows that wheat, as a bulk grain variety, can exist as different futures trading varieties according to different end uses due to obvious differences in production and demand.

The common wheat futures and strong wheat futures contracts of Zhengshang Institute are shown in the table below.

Table Zheng Shang suo pu wheat futures and strong wheat futures contracts