Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the worldwide credit crunch, the price of non-ferrous metals, which has experienced a long-term historical high, has recently fallen sharply. The recent price rebound may be a flash in the pan, and the downward trend of prices is difficult to change in the short term, which will have an impact on corporate profits. However, although there is limited room for the price increase of non-ferrous metals in the short term, out of confidence in the stable growth of Asian economy represented by China, research institutions are still generally optimistic about the price trend next year, and the medium and long-term bull market of non-ferrous metals will continue. The price of non-ferrous metals has fallen sharply recently.
In recent years, driven by domestic and international demand, the price of non-ferrous metals has been high. However, since the third quarter, the situation has turned sharply, and the prices of various non-ferrous metals in the international market have plummeted collectively. Especially since 5438+ 10 in mid-June, the copper price of LME has been falling for more than 20%, and the zinc price has dropped for more than 40%. Domestic prices of various non-ferrous metals also fell. Statistics on the average domestic spot price in September showed that the copper price was 6628 1 yuan/ton, down 7.6% year-on-year; Aluminum price 19356 yuan/ton, down11.6% year-on-year; The price of zinc was 27,745 yuan/ton, down 9.4% year-on-year; Nickel price was 265,000 yuan/ton, down 10% year-on-year.
The decline in the price of non-ferrous metals has caused great losses to the profits of enterprises in the short term. Within one month from June 5438 to10, the domestic spot price of zinc dropped by 7,600 yuan, which made the production enterprises unprepared and suffered heavy losses.
The reasons for the price reversal of non-ferrous metals are as follows: on the one hand, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States led to a downturn in the European and American real estate markets, and the expectation of slowing global economic growth also led to a decline in the growth rate of demand in the non-ferrous metals market, resulting in oversupply of most metals; On the other hand, the implementation of domestic macro-control measures has slowed down the growth of fixed investment. At the same time, the tight monetary policy of the central government has also had a certain impact on market sentiment, and the increase in domestic non-ferrous metal production capacity has caused loose supply and contributed to the lower price.
Worried about the economic slowdown and demand prospects in Europe and America, traders expect that the market will find it difficult to get rid of the downward pressure, and the base metals will fall further before the end of the year. However, there are still variables in the later trend of copper prices. Market participants predict that copper prices will really strengthen before the arrival of the peak consumption season in Asia next spring. Affected by the international market, the recent domestic price trend of non-ferrous metals is not optimistic. China's demand may still lead to rising prices of non-ferrous metals.
The latest forecast shows that the global economic growth in 2008 will be reduced from 5.2% in 2007 to 4.8%. Various research institutions have basically formed a * * * knowledge, the risk of economic recession has increased, and the growth rate of metal consumption has slowed down. Although the decline of global economic growth has brought great pressure to the rise of metal prices, the market remains optimistic about the trend of non-ferrous metal prices next year, and the demand from China has become a bright spot.
Barclays Bank pointed out in a research report that the bull market of commodities is still in its infancy, and commodity prices will continue to rise in 2008. The report even predicts that the international copper price will hit a new high next year. This series of optimistic estimates is mainly based on the fact that global inflation risk, rising raw material costs, rising energy and labor costs will support metal prices.
According to the prediction of the International Copper Research Organization, the demand for metals in China will be strong this year and next. It is predicted that the consumption of copper in China will increase by 23% in 2007 and 6% ahead of schedule next year.
Barclays Bank said in the report that it is estimated that China's interest rate hike or further interest rate hike measures will not have a great impact on the copper demand of Asian countries and regions. On the other hand, the main purpose of raising interest rates in China is to avoid the economic growth from being too fast to being overheated. At the same time, the demand for copper in the eastern coastal areas of China and the infrastructure construction projects in the western region are in the process of modernization, which will support the demand for copper in China for a long time.
Domestic experts also hold the same view. They believe that the macro-control will be further strengthened next year, but the tight monetary policy is to prevent the economy from overheating, which does not mean that China's economy has deteriorated. It is expected that the monetary tightening next year will not exceed this year, and the prudent fiscal policy will remain unchanged. Next year, the domestic economy as a whole will maintain steady growth, and the situation of both production and demand of non-ferrous metals will continue. In this regard, market participants judge that the price of non-ferrous metals will maintain a high oscillation pattern next year, and the medium and long-term bull market pattern will not change.