Putin's presidential election triggered a voting storm

The presidential election on March 4th should have been a piece of cake for Vladimir Putin, who should be able to take charge of the Kremlin for another six years or even 12 years. However, the alleged fraud in the Russian Duma election on December 4 last year aroused public anger, which not only triggered the largest street protest in Russia since the early 199s, but also made Putin face the biggest threat since he took office 12 years ago.

Opposition leaders have vowed to run with Putin on the same stage, but there are few candidates on the listed ballot at present, because according to the election regulations, there is no time to register new presidential candidates after voting in the Duma election last December. Prokhorov, a Russian billionaire, decided to take part in the presidential election, but he denied the widespread suspicion that he was secretly colluding with the Kremlin. The opposition hopes that if Putin fails to win an absolute majority in the first round of voting in March this year, he will at least take part in another decisive election, which will be the first time in Putin's political career.

Afghanistan

The withdrawal of the United States urges Afghanistan to seek foreign aid

About one third of the 1, American troops in Afghanistan are scheduled to leave the country before September this year, and this year is expected to be a transitional year for the United States to gradually reduce its military presence in Afghanistan.

after seizing control of Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan, the U.S.-led troops began to shift their focus to the mountainous areas in eastern Afghanistan bordering Pakistan, where insurgents can still target the interests of Afghanistan and the United States. In addition, Afghan and American forces are currently accelerating the process of handing over security responsibilities to Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, negotiators from the United States and Afghanistan will work together to resume peace talks with the Taliban. The talks broke down last autumn when an alleged Taliban peace envoy killed Afghanistan's chief negotiator.

as the United States and its allies drastically reduce the aid funds that once supported Afghanistan's economy, Afghan leaders will strive to win long-term overseas support at the NATO summit in Chicago on May 2-21 this year and the international donor conference in Japan in July.

In addition, the second term of Afghan President Hamid Karzai will end in 214, and potential successors are preparing to run for the presidency, or preparing for the civil war that will split the country after the withdrawal of western troops, which will be the worst case.

Africa

Old leadership vs. Young people's demands

In Africa, old leaders rule a country made up of young people. The average age of the population in these countries is only 19 years old. For this continent, 212 may be a time of troubles.

in west Africa, after a year of rare protests caused by power shortage, 85-year-old Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade is seeking to run again in February. In East Africa, Yoweri Museveni, the 72-year-old President of Uganda, has still won a new term, although runaway inflation has brought the most severe challenge in his 25-year rule. In southern Africa, Robert Mugabe, the 87-year-old president of Zimbabwe, is calling for general elections this year to end the flawed temporary alliance. After the election riots in 28, the country's economy has hardly recovered, and hyperinflation has spawned Zimbabwe currency with a face value of 1 trillion.

In South Africa, the largest economy on the African continent, 69-year-old President Jacob Zuma intends to win support for winning the next term at an important political meeting held by the ruling African National Congress in December, but he still faces fierce opposition from young leaders. These leaders say they are the spokesmen of the unemployed army in this country.

All kinds of tensions in Africa point to the same reality: the demographic factors that once made the young and ambitious middle class rise are injecting new uncertainty into African politics.

In p>211, an uprising led by young people overthrew a series of dictatorships in North Africa. If we can't stimulate economic growth, control inflation and create jobs for the restless young people in the country now, the leaders of sub-Saharan Africa will face a similar outcome.

Mexico

No suitable presidential candidate can be found before the general election in July

Mexicans will vote on July 1 this year to choose the successor of the current Mexican President Felipe Calderon. During his six-year tenure, Calderon waged a tit-for-tat struggle with drug cartels in the country. By the time Calderon left office, the death toll in this war is expected to exceed 6,.

for many voters, this is a difficult choice. Will they follow a ruling party that looks less corrupt but inefficient, or will they please return to the former ruling party that looks more corrupt but more efficient? Or are they willing to bet on the left-wing Andres Manuel Manuel Lopez Obrador who believes that the social system will undergo radical changes? Obrador narrowly lost to Calderon six years ago, and it was he who triggered the protests that lasted for months.

many people may choose "none of the above"

So far, Enrique Pena Nieto, a 45-year-old candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party in Mexico, has a better chance of winning. Before 2, the party had ruled Mexico peacefully for 71 years. The photogenic former governor of Mexico's most populous state has made many mistakes recently: at the book fair, he couldn't name three books that had influenced him. In addition, in an interview, he couldn't answer the price of tortillas, the main food of millions of poor people in Mexico. But his party has powerful machines and the support of major Mexican television networks.

At this time, the National Action Party of Mexico, where Calderon belongs, has not yet elected a candidate, and it is currently at least 2 percentage points behind the Institutional Revolutionary Party.

whoever wins will face formidable challenges. This country with weak economic growth will face oil shortage in the next six years. In addition, the new president must effectively control the violent activities, the corrupt police force and the judicial system in Mexico.

Venezuela

Chavez fought for his life and political future

Hugo Chavez of Venezuela served in the army, and his most famous action was a coup in 1992, which failed. But this year, the former officer is faced with three difficult battles, and even the most military-minded talents will be tested in front of these battles.

Chavez must fight for his life first. The 57-year-old president is fighting cancer. Although he himself says that there is no cancer now, the accurate prognosis is a state secret of Venezuela. Reports from various intelligence agencies say that Chavez may not survive 212, while his supporters say that "El Comandante Presidente" will defeat cancer.

At the same time, in the October 7th election, Chavez faced the toughest political battle since he took office. Venezuela's economy is recovering from recession, the crime rate is rising sharply, and the inflation rate is considered to be the highest in the world. The opposition parties are uniting to pick a single candidate to compete with Chavez in the primary election on February 12. Chavez responded by desperately increasing public spending.

his third campaign is to prevent Venezuela's finances from getting out of control. It is estimated that Venezuela's budget deficit will reach 15% of its annual economic output this year. As long as oil prices remain high, Chavez can keep printing money and accumulating debts. If oil prices fall, the Venezuelan authorities may follow in the footsteps of the Greek government.

the changes in two isolated countries, Myanmar/North Korea

have attracted attention

World leaders will pay close attention to whether Myanmar will expand its recent measures to reform the political system and open up its economy, and whether the death of dictator Kim Jong Il may bring about similar opening-up in North Korea, another secretive ally of China.

The United States and Europe have long imposed sanctions on these two countries to punish their leaders for human rights violations and suspected development of nuclear weapons.

In the past year, Myanmar officials relaxed media control, released some political prisoners, and promised to reform the economic system largely controlled by the government. Burmese officials have also said that they are not involved in nuclear proliferation with North Korea.

Myanmar's relations with the United States and Europe have improved, which makes people suspect that western leaders may relax sanctions in 212. In this way, with the influx of oil and gas companies, consumer goods companies and infrastructure giants, Myanmar with a population of 55 million and rich resources may become a hot investment theme.

At present, there are fewer signs that North Korea will reform than Myanmar. Since Kim Jong Il's death on December 17th, the official media in North Korea have always stressed that Kim Jong Eun, the son of Kim Jong Il and designated successor, will strive to realize his father's last wish-his greatest wish is to unify the Korean Peninsula under Pyongyang's rule. The issue of "agriculture, countryside and farmers" is the first major concern. If the "three rural issues" are not solved, it is impossible for China's economy to develop continuously and stably. Judging from the current situation, due to the high proportion of rural population in China, the income level of farmers has not only increased slowly, but the income difference between urban and rural areas has not narrowed.

the hundreds of millions of farmers who work outside the home every year are in the lowest class in the city, and their wages are extremely low. The low income level of farmers not only makes it difficult to raise the welfare level, but also leads to extremely low consumption power, which makes it easy for the domestic economy to reduce its dependence on foreign economy and expand domestic demand into a propaganda slogan.

To solve the problems of agriculture, countryside and farmers, we should create conditions for a large number of farmers to enter cities and reduce the proportion of rural population in the whole population; Second, it is necessary to protect farmers' land property rights and land income by law, so that farmers can have the most basic starting point of wealth when they enter the city; Third, we should establish farmers' civil rights so that they will not be discriminated against in the process of free migration, especially their children will receive fair and basic education; The fourth is to create the institutional environment and conditions for farmers to flood into cities on the above basis.

Secondly, there is a popular view in the market that the unlimited supply of surplus labor in China has changed. There are two reasons. First, after the liberation of China, the "baby boomer" population (35-5 years old) has basically reached its peak, and the growth of the labor force population will slow down; Second, judging from the situation in the southeast coast, the situation of oversupply of labor began to change into short supply.

I believe that in the next 2 years, the pattern of unlimited supply of labor in China will not be changed. First, China has a large population base. Although the labor force population in the "post-baby boom" period is relatively reduced, the absolute amount will not decline; Second, with the vigorous development of domestic basic education and higher education in recent years, the quality of domestic labor force population is getting higher and higher, and the growth of employment opportunities is far lower than the growth of labor force population training; Third, the rapid development of urbanization will definitely allow a large number of farmers to flood into cities; Fourth, as long as the wage income level of migrant workers has increased very little or even no in the past ten years, it can be seen that there is a serious surplus of domestic labor supply at present. In the coming period, creating more employment opportunities should still be the goal of macro-economy.

Third, with the rapid growth of domestic foreign exchange reserves and the doubling of domestic residents' personal savings, is there a pattern of excess funds in China? Judging from the monetary policy adopted by the central bank in recent months, curbing the rapid increase of liquidity has become the primary task of the central bank. Judging from the mainstream opinion in the current market, the excess liquidity in the domestic financial market is basically the result of the excessive growth of foreign exchange holdings and the excessive savings of residents. For the former, as long as the local and foreign currency markets are divided and the foreign exchange settlement and sale system remains unchanged, it is impossible to slow down the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in the expectation of RMB appreciation. For the latter, scholars at home and abroad have been saying that the savings rate of China people is too high and the consumption rate is too low. But in fact, under the current population structure, no matter how the government promotes consumption, no matter how low the savings rate is, the savings of domestic residents will not decline.

At present, the liquidity in the banking system in China is too high, and the most fundamental reason is the result of the low interest rate policy under government control. Under the low interest rate policy, no matter how many administrative measures the government takes to suppress this excessive liquidity, it can only be a gourd and a gourd. When a large amount of liquidity flows around the market, the prices of various assets will rise rapidly. Such as the real estate market and the stock market.

fourthly, the serious imbalance of institutional interests in economic life makes social wealth gather to a few people in a short time. For example, at present, the blue-chip stocks with serious market speculation are basically state-owned enterprises, state-owned monopoly enterprises or industries whose marketization is not sufficient through strict market access. The quality of these enterprises is not the result of market competition and enterprise efforts, but the easy profit through government monopoly policies. If this problem is not solved, it will not only seriously weaken the labor efforts of the vast majority of people, but also be the source of social instability in China.

All the above are important events in China's economic life. Without a basic understanding of these issues, China's economic life will face more difficulties and problems.