Wang Jianhua, chief analyst of Shanghai Steel Union Steel Division, predicted that the price of 20 19 steel was likely to fall, mainly due to the following reasons:

1, the main price of snails hit below 4000, indicating that the long-short game is further intensified. 190 1 There is limited room for the contract price to be greatly suppressed, and there is a high probability of huge fluctuations in the future.

2. Fundamental pricing has gradually given way to futures pricing, and the continuous sharp decline in futures has shaken the confidence of the spot market. This influence has just begun, but how far and how deep it can go depends on how much space futures have to suppress in the short term. What may happen in the market is that 1 1 partially falls, and 1 partially falls again in February, while the real main force decline probability appears in 1.2.

3. Rising costs will first suppress high-cost enterprises. Therefore, futures will fall, and the 190 1 contract should be at least near the cost line of electric furnace steel (near 3950). Due to the strong pessimism, it is not excluded that the contract target of 1905 will be suppressed to the vicinity of the industry average cost line (the sample enterprise cost of 10 is 3567, and if alloy is added according to the new national standard, it will be around 3800). It is worth noting that the cost is dynamic.

4. The repair market of snail difference has already started. But the repair will not be so quick and thorough. There are some variables in this, depending on the fundamentals of both. It is difficult to correct the screw 200 whose volume is higher than that in previous years, but it is good to correct it to a flat value.

Note: The above prices are for reference only, subject to the actual quotation.