Last week, affected by the dollar oscillation and the expected recovery of consumer demand, copper prices rebounded, domestic copper prices rose sharply, and zinc prices also rebounded to a certain extent; However, due to the domestic adjustment of export tariff policy of aluminum alloy, the aluminum market has fallen sharply. Last Friday, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the dollar strengthened again, which made the price of basic metals fall again. Three-month copper rebounded to $7,889 to close at $7,660, up $350 from the previous week. In three months, aluminum rebounded to $2,867, closing at $2,780, unchanged from the previous week; The domestic Shanghai Copper main contract 8 1 1 rebounded to 60,690 yuan, closing at 60,680 yuan, up 4,240 yuan from the previous week; China Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd.' s main contract 8 1 1 contract fell to 17780 yuan, closing at 18205 yuan, down1/0 yuan from the previous week.
The dollar fluctuated last week, and it is more likely to remain strong in the medium term.
After rising for five weeks in a row, the dollar finally slowed down in the last week, showing a volatile trend. Last Tuesday, under the influence of the weak data of housing starts in July and the rebound of crude oil, the US dollar index fell from the high of 77.4438+0 in the year. Last Wednesday, the crude oil inventory data released by the US Department of Energy unexpectedly increased, crude oil prices showed a certain correction in intraday trading, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly. However, because the United States plans to deploy missiles at the base defense, the relationship between the United States and Russia is tense, and the oil price still closed higher that night; On Thursday, the US Conference Board reported that the index of leading economic indicators in the United States fell by 0.7% in July, indicating that the risk of economic downturn in the United States has remained high recently, and crude oil prices rebounded sharply due to the geopolitical crisis. 10 crude oil futures price rose by $5.62 that night, reaching a maximum of 12 1.73. The US dollar was greatly weakened by selling, and the US dollar index dropped to a minimum of 76. 10. However, the trend of the dollar and crude oil once again showed a dramatic reversal on Friday. Due to weak economic data, European currencies weakened again and the dollar rebounded strongly. The easing of supply problems led to a rebound in crude oil prices and another plunge. June crude oil futures 5438+00 fell by $6.59 on Friday, and the sharp drop in crude oil prices also pushed the dollar to strengthen again. As of last Friday, the euro closed at 1.4774 against the US dollar, up10/basis point from the previous week, and the US dollar index closed at 76.8 1, down 0.37 from the previous week, but it has rebounded sharply from the low of 76.02 this week.
The economic data released by the United States last week is still weak, and the inflationary pressure has not eased, but Bernanke's speech eased the market's concerns about inflation. Last Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce predicted that in July, American builders drastically reduced the number of new housing starts, and the number of building permits for single-family houses also fell to the lowest level in 26 years. In July, housing starts fell by 65,438+065,438+0% to 965,000, close to the 960,000 predicted by Wall Street economists, hitting a new low of 65,438+07. At the same time, the number of new housing starts in June was revised upwards to 6.5438+0.084 million. Last Thursday, the Conference Board reported that the index of leading economic indicators in the United States fell by 0.7% in July, and five of the top ten leading economic indicators fell, with building permits and stock prices leading the decline. Three indicators, led by spreads and consumer expectations, are all rising. On Tuesday, the US Department of Labor reported that the producer price index (PPI) rose by 1.2% in July, which exceeded market expectations. Earlier, Wall Street economists expected the PPI to increase by only 0.3% in July. Bernanke made a speech last Friday, pointing out that the dollar is stable, the prices of crude oil and other commodities are falling, which is encouraging, and the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. The Fed will strive to achieve medium-term price stability and will take necessary actions to achieve this goal. Bernanke also said that falling commodity prices, stable dollar and slowing economic growth should curb inflation. Investors' worries about inflation and the expectations of the Fed to raise interest rates have weakened.
The weak economic data in the euro zone boosted the rebound of the dollar. Although the initial purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the euro zone in August released last Thursday rose to 48.0 from 47.8 in July, it has been below 50 for the third consecutive month. However, industrial orders in the euro zone decreased by 7.4% compared with the same period of last year, the biggest decline since 200 1 and 65438+February. According to data released by the UK last Friday, the revised quarterly GDP rate of the UK in the second quarter was flat, 0. 1% lower than expected, and the previous value rose by 0.2%, which suppressed the GBP/USD from falling below the 1.8600 mark.
At present, the factors supporting the continued rise of the US dollar include: poor economic prospects in major OECD countries; The balance of payments in the United States has improved significantly; Interest rate cuts in high-interest currencies are expected to heat up; The price of crude oil fell. The factors that are not conducive to the rise of the dollar include: the global economic weakness leads to the reduction of demand, which is not conducive to the improvement of the US trade account; American consumers lack confidence and the economic outlook is not optimistic; Whether the subprime black hole of American financial institutions has bottomed out is still variable; The risk of crude oil price rising again still exists. Overall, it is more likely that the US dollar will continue its upward trend in the medium term. Because the strength of the dollar is not based on the strength of the American economy, but on the weakness of other developed countries such as Europe and Japan, the rise of the dollar in this context is obviously more harmful than beneficial to basic metals. On the one hand, the real economy will directly affect the change of the US dollar exchange rate, and for commodity futures investors, it will also affect the expectation of future demand for bulk commodities, which is the key to determine the long-term trend of basic metals.
Important economic data to be released this week include: on Monday, NAR existing home sales in the United States in July; On Tuesday, Germany's final GDP in the second quarter, Germany's IFO business climate/current situation/expectation index in August, the revised value of US construction permits in July, the sales of new homes in the United States in July, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index in August; On Wednesday, the US EIA crude oil inventories changed last week, and the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the interest rate meeting on August 5; On Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week, and the revised price index of personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter of the United States; On Friday, Germany's actual retail sales in July, the unemployment rate in the euro zone in July, the initial value of the consumer price index in the euro zone in August, the US personal consumption expenditure price index in July, and the US core personal consumption expenditure price index in July.
Copper: Imports are picking up, but consumption growth is just a dream.
In the last week, the copper price has been higher than that of Big bounce. The rebound of domestic imports and the expectation of the rebound of demand after the Olympic Games have promoted the price recovery, but the basis of the price increase is still quite unstable.
Last Friday, the customs released detailed import and export data of copper and other basic metals from June to July. According to the published data, in July, refined copper imports reached 8,865,438+million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year. From June to July, the cumulative import volume was 775 1 10,000 tons, down 2 1.77% year-on-year. If we look at the ring comparison data, we can find that the import volume in July increased by 1.24 million tons compared with that in June, and the chain comparison increased by 16.34%. Since the exchange rate between Shanghai and London has been rising continuously since mid-July, it is basically expected that imports will increase in July, and the import volume in July is actually lower than our expected level of 965,438+10,000 tons. However, due to the expected downward adjustment of foreign major copper concentrate production, the growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow down, while the price of scrap copper continues to rise, and the import volume is still expected to increase in August.
Last Wednesday, stimulated by Gong Fangxiong, managing director of JPMorgan Chase Securities (Asia) Co., Ltd.' s report on "1000 billion economic stimulus plan" and a series of related rumors, the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets soared, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.63%. With the expectation of increasing consumer demand, the basic metal market is also driven by buying. The report mentioned that "the leadership is considering an economic stimulus plan with a total amount of at least 200 billion to 400 billion yuan" and stressed that this plan is in addition to the 500 billion to 600 billion yuan spent on the recovery and reconstruction plan in Sichuan disaster areas, which will include tax reduction, stabilizing the domestic capital market and supporting the healthy development of the real estate market. However, this report has not been officially confirmed. The Economic Observer said that similar expansionary fiscal policy plans are indeed under consideration, but there is no conclusion yet.
In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory continued to grow, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory continued to decrease, and the total inventory of domestic exchanges was close to the lowest level in the year. The data shows that LME inventory has increased for seven consecutive weeks, and increased by 9,750 tons again last week. LME copper inventory has exceeded 1.6 million tons, and the total inventory has risen to a six-month high 1.6 million tons. The copper inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased for five consecutive weeks, with a further decrease of 3,029 tons in the latest week, and the total amount dropped to 210.8 million tons, while the lowest in the year was 6,543.8+0.82 million tons on10.25.
In terms of price difference, the spot price of copper in London has rebounded relative to the three-month futures premium. The lowest price in the previous week fell to $30.5, while the highest price in July reached $2,465,438 +0. Last week, the price difference stabilized above $65,438+000. Domestically, after the delivery of the 808 contract, the price difference between spot and spot monthly futures contracts once expanded to nearly 1,000 yuan, but it declined in the last week, but spot copper still maintained a premium of several hundred yuan.
According to the position data released by CFTC, as of the latest week 19 in August, the number of long positions of the fund continued to decrease, and the number of multi-position positions of the fund decreased to 10400 lots, which was 2600 lots less than the previous week, while the number of short positions of the fund increased to 1 100 lots, and the net position of the fund increased to 9400 lots compared with the previous week. However, due to the continuous decrease of commercial short positions and the increase of commercial long positions, the net commercial positions increased to 1.560 lots. As of last Friday, the copper futures positions in COMEX market dropped to 88,800 lots, nearly 4,000 lots less than the previous week.
We still maintain the view that the trend of metal market is dominated by oscillation, and the medium-term trend depends on the change of economic fundamentals. At present, the consumption growth is only expected, and the policy has not changed much.
Aluminum: Inventory continues to grow, and the supply pressure is still relatively high.
Last week, due to the adjustment of domestic export tariffs on aluminum alloys, domestic aluminum prices fell sharply. The lowest contract of Shanghai Aluminum 8 1 1 fell to 17780 yuan, and rebounded in the second half of the week due to the rise of copper prices. Although the current aluminum price is supported by cost factors, due to the large production scale, relatively weak consumption and continuous growth of inventory, the price formation pressure is still relatively high.
On August 15, the State Council Customs Tariff Commission announced that with the approval of the State Council, the export tariffs of some commodities such as aluminum alloy, coke and coal will be adjusted from August 20, 2008. Among them, the provisional export tariff is levied on aluminum alloy exported under general trade, and the provisional tax rate is 15%. According to the data released by the customs, the export volume of aluminum alloy in July this year was 88,600 tons, up by 1.90 16% year-on-year, and the cumulative export volume from June to July was 484,600 tons, up by 1.39.92% year-on-year. By analyzing the export data of aluminum alloy since this year, it can be found that the export volume of aluminum alloy has increased rapidly since the second quarter, reaching 1 13900 tons in June. Although the export volume in July decreased by 25,300 tons compared with that in June, it was still at a high level. In July, 2007 and March, 2008, China adopted a restrictive export policy for aluminum profiles, non-standard aluminum tubes and other products, and the zero-tariff policy and aluminum alloy products with simple production technology gradually became an important part of the export structure. Because the export growth of aluminum products is too fast, the industry has long expected to impose export tariffs on aluminum alloys, so the export of aluminum alloys has increased substantially since the second quarter, and it is not difficult to understand the phenomenon of surprise export in June. From June to July this year, domestic * * * produced 7,735,300 tons of electrolytic aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. Compared with the output of electrolytic aluminum in the same period, the export volume of aluminum alloy only accounts for 6.26%, so tariff adjustment will increase the domestic supply pressure, but the impact will not be too great. The core of the problem lies in the output of electrolytic aluminum itself.
According to the data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) last Wednesday, the global aluminum output in July was 2 1.7 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons compared with 21.0 million tons in June. Compared with the output of 2 10.7 million tons in July 2007, it increased by 63,000 tons. In July 2007, the global average daily output of primary aluminum was 70,000 tons, in June it was 70,400 tons, and in July it was 68,000 tons.
According to the inventory data released by LME, the aluminum inventory of LME increased sharply again in the last week, and the total aluminum inventory of LME reached 1 165300 tons, an increase of 4 1900 tons compared with the previous week.
We believe that the continuous growth of inventory and the greater supply pressure are still the main contradictions in the market in the recent stage.