Why is it wrong? There is a simple reason. There are too many factors that affect the economic operation. Compaq's cycle theory essentially comes from a large number of statistical data of western capitalist countries, and its foundation is market economy, which is based on the big pattern that Europe and the United States dominate the world. When China rose, things changed. China's economic model is completely different from that of the West. It's good to correctly explain 30% of China with western theory, and the correct rate is far lower than this figure? Flip a coin for prediction? . So, if you let economists who like to use western theories to predict China's economy and China's real estate market, why not let them? Paul the octopus? The prediction is more reliable.
In that case, the post-85 students should not be so nervous. For countless individuals, who knows when their cycle will peak? At the beginning, many cycles, including Zhou Jintao, predicted that commodities and the real economy would bottom out at the beginning of 20 16, which means that the inventory cycle at that time would start to turn from falling to rising. Similarly, we can also calculate that the real economy will return to the downward trend at the beginning of 20 18, and will bottom out again in the second half of 20 19. This is what Zhou Jintao predicted will happen in 20 19 years? Forever? And then what? Is there a big chance? General logic of.
But? The eternal year of Campo cycle? It obviously didn't happen. For example, the price trend of copper in London, but now the price is higher than when Zhou Jintao made the expectation, and it has not fallen below the lowest point of 20 16 in recent two years. If you had held cash at that time until now, it was obviously a loss. The price trend of crude oil futures also rose slightly, and there was no golden opportunity to bargain-hunting. At the same time, Zhou Jintao's prediction that house prices will plummet after 20 14 did not appear. In addition, Zhou Jintao also believes that the skyrocketing property market in China from 20 15 to 20 17 is just a rebound, not a bull market.