Crude oil lays the foundation of energy bull market
First of all, from the macro-economic point of view, the global economy will continue to maintain stable and healthy development in 2007. Economic development mainly comes from two parts: the "soft landing" of American economy and the rapid development of China economy. In 2006, the American economy experienced a period of growth decline, and the GDP growth rate slowed down to 2.2%. However, at the same time of economic growth decline, the high inflation rate in the United States has been significantly improved, especially under the premise that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for eight consecutive times, and inflation has basically been controlled. Therefore, in 2007, the United States can still maintain an economic growth rate of more than 2.5%. On the other hand, China's China economy performed well in 2006. China's GDP growth in the third quarter 10.7%. It is estimated that the annual GDP growth will be above 10%, and the economic growth rate in 2007 is expected to be less than that in 2006, but it will still be close to 10%. Economic development will inevitably increase the demand for crude oil. The data of the past six years prove that if the US economy grows by 2.5%, the price of crude oil will return to more than $70.
Secondly, although there will be an imbalance between supply and demand of international crude oil in the first quarter of 2007, the demand for crude oil will still increase at the rate of 1.7%, which is the fastest growth year since 2000. According to EIA report, the international demand for crude oil will rise to 86.5 million barrels per day in 2007. Among them, American demand increased by about 1.3%, while other OECD countries all experienced negative growth. China's crude oil demand growth rate ranks first among countries, reaching 5.6%. At the same time, the world crude oil supply capacity is 8,665,438+10,000 barrels per day. Among them, the supply capacity of OPEC countries is 34.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 500,000 barrels per day compared with 2006, while the daily supply of crude oil in non-OPEC countries is 565,438+700,000 barrels per day, an increase of only 900,000 barrels per day compared with 2006. From the perspective of the whole year, the tight supply situation in 2007 is difficult to change.
Finally, 2006 was the deepest year for the fund to participate in the futures market in 10 years. In the first half of this year alone, the amount of new funds for commodities exceeded $80 billion, while the funds for investing in crude oil futures increased by nearly 50% to about $24 billion. This situation will continue in 2007. Last year, the position of the crude oil futures general fund reached a new high after it broke through 654.38+0 million lots in May. For a long time, most investors in the market are optimistic about crude oil futures, because as the blood of the world industry, crude oil is not only important, but also a non-renewable resource. On the basis that alternative energy cannot replace crude oil for the time being, the long-term bull market of crude oil will be difficult to change.
However, before the peak demand for crude oil comes in April, it will be difficult for crude oil to get out of a decent rising market. This is mainly because the El Ni? o phenomenon makes most parts of North America in a warm winter, and the demand for crude oil is obviously insufficient, thus greatly increasing the inventory of crude oil and fuel oil. However, the second production reduction plan of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is also difficult to play a role in the short term, so crude oil will remain weak during the traditional off-season from February to April, which restricts the increase of the average price of crude oil throughout the year.
Spot support may make Shanghai Oil bulls step back.
From the perspective of domestic fuel oil, since the beginning of June 5438+ 10, the number of western arbitrage vessels flowing into the Asian fuel oil market is only 50% of that in February 65438+February, and the number has been greatly reduced. However, after four months' silence, China and other Asian countries began to buy large quantities of fuel in stock, resulting in a shortage of fuel in Asia. In addition, the reduction of Asian stocks has also triggered the buying enthusiasm of traders. According to Singapore's statistics, Singapore's inventory in June 5438+ 10 has dropped to about 10 billion barrels, while in June 2006 it once reached the historical level of10.5 billion barrels.
Driven by the strong spot demand for fuel in Asia, the trend of Shanghai fuel oil shows a relatively firm price trend. Although the price of fuel futures broke to around 2600 yuan twice, it soon returned to the shock range of 2700-2800 yuan. Supported by the spot price, once the crude oil stabilizes and pulls back, the fuel price will go out of the previous fluctuation range and re-emerge from a bull market.