The Federal Reserve announced a rate hike of 75 basis points, which is the fifth rate hike this year, the third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points and the largest intensive rate hike since 198 1. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out how the Fed's interest rate hike will affect the global market. Let's have a look!
What impact will the Fed's interest rate hike have on the global market?
"Since the current market has been fully priced, the meeting will raise interest rates by 75BP and the meeting will raise interest rates by 75BP, then the market will rebound and repair the market after the risks land." Zhu Jintao, a researcher at Everbright Futures National Debt, said.
"If the interest rate is raised by 75 basis points, the market reaction will not be too great, because this is already expected." Zhou Zhiyun, a senior macro researcher at Zhong Da Futures, said that the focus of this meeting is whether the Fed's next interest rate hike path will change. On Wednesday 165438+ 10, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has reached 6 1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points has dropped to 28%. Compared with a week ago, the market's expectation of raising interest rates in 165438+ 10 has improved. It can be seen that US stocks have continued to fall in recent days, and the US dollar index hit a new high (65,438.
Since June, the process of balance sheet contraction has been very slow. By the end of September, the size of the Fed's balance sheet was still 8.8 trillion, which was only less than 6543.8+050 billion compared with the peak of 8.96 trillion in April. Among them, the actual shrinkage from June to August was 29.4 billion yuan per month, only 62% of the upper limit figure (47.5 billion US dollars). If the table shrinking process is accelerated in the future, the potential negative impact on commodities will also appear.
What impact will the Fed's interest rate hike have on A shares? Zhu Jintao believes that the Fed continues to raise interest rates rapidly, and the pace of raising interest rates is faster than that of non-American countries. The relative strength of the US dollar will continue in the short term, which will bring some passive depreciation pressure to the RMB. However, with the gradual effect of China's steady growth policy, the stabilization of the domestic economy, and the pressure of the US economic recession brought by the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate increase, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has no incentive to continue to depreciate. For the domestic stock market, looking back at history, we can find that the absolute value of exchange rate has little influence on A shares, but the short-term rapid depreciation of exchange rate will cause A shares to be under pressure. At present, with the positive signal that the central bank lowered the release of foreign exchange reserves, the slope of exchange rate depreciation has slowed down, which has little impact on A shares. At present, there is no obvious outflow of foreign capital in A shares, so the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on A shares is limited.
In fact, the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China is to increase the pressure of RMB depreciation. Second, the spread between Chinese and American government bonds is upside down, and the pressure of capital outflow is increasing. In the first seven months of this year, bonds held abroad decreased by 492.4 billion yuan; As of last Friday, September 16, the proportion of foreign-owned A shares in the market value of circulating A shares decreased from 4.04% at the beginning of the year to 3.75%. Third, the overseas "expected difference" impacted the domestic capital market sentiment, and the risk appetite declined.
Zhou Zhiyun told reporters that the logic of the impact on the A-share market is that the Fed raises interest rates aggressively → the yield of US bonds rises. With the further interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in May and June, most prices of non-ferrous metals began to decline rapidly. Especially in June, China's CPI reached a record high of 9. 1%, and the prices of non-ferrous varieties entered a downward trend. As of the beginning of July, the varieties of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel have fallen by about 30%, and the main contract of Shanghai and Tin has fallen by nearly 50% compared with the historical high point, basically digesting the Fed's interest rate hike in July ahead of schedule. Therefore, after the interest rate hike in July did not exceed expectations, the price of non-ferrous metals began to rebound in stages and continued until the arrival of the peak season in September. "Hou Yahui said.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Hou Yahui believes that in the short term, the traditional peak season in September is less than expected, which puts pressure on the price of non-ferrous metals and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. In the medium and long term, the trend of non-ferrous metals depends on the fundamental strength of each variety. Weak fundamentals such as lead and tin will still drag down prices. Copper, nickel and other varieties with relatively supported fundamentals may be further explored in the future, and the rebound of aluminum may depend on the degree of interference from the supply side. Whether the downstream terminal demand of nonferrous metals can actually improve in June 5438+ 10 is still the decisive factor for the price rebound in the second half of the year. On the whole, we are cautiously optimistic during the peak season, and colored prices may be under pressure after the peak season.
"From a fundamental point of view, copper is in a state of strong reality and weak expectations. At present, there is still the risk of disturbance at the copper mine end. The overall supply of crude copper is tight, and it is expected that the supply increment will be delayed. At the same time, the spot maintains a high premium state, and domestic and foreign inventories are at a historical low. This also supported the price of copper. However, in the fourth quarter, there are still pressures of liquidity tightening and risks of global economic recession at the macro level. The overall demand for non-ferrous metals is facing a weakening trend, which still puts pressure on copper prices, and copper prices are still likely to decline. " Pan Hu said that at present, the aluminum supply side is still disturbed by production reduction at home and abroad, and the supply pressure is greatly weakened compared with the first half of the year. The accumulated inventory in the year is expected to continue to decrease, which will interfere with or raise the bottom of the aluminum price, but the micro-demand and macro-sentiment have not produced a * * * shock. If there is no unexpected production reduction, with the gradual increase of supply and sluggish demand at the end of the fourth quarter, aluminum prices may move down again.
The main contract of Shanghai Nickel rose in the short-term at the end of the day, with an increase of more than 4% in the day. What caused the nickel price to hit a three-month high?
Hou Yahui believes that the main reason is the improvement in the peak season of nickel demand in September. With the opening of the downstream stainless steel warehouse, the apparent consumption of nickel has rebounded from the previous period. At the same time, the supply side's output in electrolytic nickel in August decreased by 3. 13% month-on-month, and the domestic pure nickel inventory was at a relatively low level, so the nickel price brought high resilience.
"The huge uncertainty risks faced by the short-term macro can not be ignored. The inversion of nickel sulfate and nickel beans means that the overall supply and demand are not extremely short at present. In addition, the continuous increase of wet intermediates in Indonesia in the fourth quarter will also put pressure on nickel prices, so nickel prices will still fluctuate widely, and we will pay attention to downside risks in the future. " Pan Hu said.
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