Historically, the contracts in May each year are in a sensitive period of policy, with great uncertainty. Especially in the context of the widening gap between international corn production and demand this year, corn futures ushered in the largest delivery volume in the history of single-month contracts. Just a month ago, the price of corn in the international market continued to rise, hitting a new high in 10, with an increase of 39.7% during the year.
At present, with the gradual harvest of summer grain, domestic corn sales have come to an end. With the auction of rice by the State Reserve, the China-Pakistan corn import agreement is about to be reached, and the domestic corn market has experienced a high level of shock, but for the market outlook, the fundamental bullish factors are still valued by the market.
The biggest in history! The contract delivery volume of corn 2205 reached 12 1 10,000 tons.
Historically, contracts in May each year are "big delivery households", especially this year. The reporter recently learned that the just-concluded corn futures 2205 contract has a total delivery volume of 1.2 1. 1.46 million tons, which is the largest delivery in the history of corn single contract. At present, the contract has been delisted and the physical delivery is proceeding in an orderly manner.
According to the data of the Exchange, the corn 2205 contract delivered 1, 2 1, 460 tons, of which 1, 2 1, 000 tons were delivered in a rolling way and 1, 460 tons were delivered in one lump sum. There are 29 seller customers and 5 1 buyer customers participating in the delivery. According to the type of delivery warehouse, 2 1.800 tons were delivered through the group warehouse, 90,000 tons were delivered from the merchant factory warehouse and 909,200 tons were delivered from the single warehouse. From the warehouse distribution location, Liaoning Port Warehouse delivered 999,200 tons, Northeast Production Area Group delivered 6,543,800 tons, and Group outside Northeast China delivered 6,543,800 tons. Among them, Jilin Yuntianhua and other epidemic control areas delivered about177,200 tons (26 19-0.6 1%).
The monthly delivery volume of the last corn futures was 563,850 tons of the contract in 2005, and this delivery volume was 2. 15 times. The transportation process is smooth and all the work is orderly, especially in the case of epidemic situation. In order to ensure the smooth delivery, the big business office has formulated an emergency plan. For the delivery warehouses where 9 quality inspection institutions in the epidemic control area can't go to the site for quality inspection, the initial inspection of the warehouse and the video monitoring of the incoming corn quality by the Dashang Institute were carried out, and the registration process of 654.38+0.832 million tons of corn warehouse receipts was successfully completed. For customers who cannot register warehouse receipts because the banks in the prevention and control area cannot issue letters of guarantee, they should register with cash deposit first, and change the deposit after the letter of guarantee is issued. At the same time, the big business office also actively coordinates the warehouse capacity, assists in contacting the quality inspection, and ensures that there are warehouses to put and food to pay.
National corn sales are coming to an end, and the market is facing a change.
At present, with the gradual harvest of summer grain, the focus of traders' purchase and sale has shifted to wheat, and they have no time to take care of corn, so domestic corn sales are coming to an end. According to the statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products (6.49-0.6 1%, Diagnostic Unit), the sales progress of corn in Northeast China was 96% last week, and that in North China was 93%.
"The spot price of corn has been sideways for more than a month, and the port price has not improved much. Even so, we are still very optimistic about the later price. " A medium-sized corn trader in Yingkou Port, Liaoning Province, told China, a securities times-broker, that from the perspective of planting cost this year, the price of chemical fertilizer has reached a record high, which is bound to be transmitted to the price of corn through cost. In addition, high crude oil prices will also increase the transportation cost of corn trade.
Wang, an analyst of futures (16.05+0.88%), believes that domestic new wheat will be listed soon, and traders have begun to make preparations for purchasing and storing wheat. The staged supply of corn increased slightly, the auction of directional rice was restarted, and the delivery cost was lower than that of corn. If directional rice is continuously put in, it may suppress the demand for feed and push the price of corn sideways at a high level.
Previously, on April 20, the main contract of domestic corn futures broke through the 3000 yuan mark for the first time. On April 29th, the main contract of corn futures soared to 3046 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 3044 yuan/ton. Since then, corn prices have begun to fall. On the whole, since 2022, domestic corn futures have increased by 1 1.5%.
Compared with the seasonal price increase of corn futures in previous years, the special feature of this round of price increase is that it is significantly affected by the transmission factors in the international market. Since the beginning of this year, the price of corn in the international market has continued to rise. On May 25th, CBOT corn futures price reported 7.62 USD/bushel, up 27.3% from the beginning of this year. Previously, it broke through the high of 8.24 USD on April 29th, approaching the historical high of 8.49 USD per bushel of 20 12, with an increase of 39.7%.
Faced with the drastic fluctuation of domestic and international prices, since June 5438+ 10 this year, Dashang has paid close attention to the tightly balanced corn market in the new year. Based on the principle of nip in the bud, it has made a number of preparations for possible market risks and delivery risks, and has issued risk control measures six times successively to increase market transaction costs, control market transaction heat, and continuously release cooling signals to the market to ensure the smooth operation of the futures market.
At present, about 90% of the leading corn enterprises in China participate in the corn futures market, and some enterprises actively carry out basis trade through corn futures. The basis trading volume increased from 5% of 20 19 to 10%. Statistics show that there are 29 corn futures delivery warehouses with a total storage capacity of over150,000 tons, and the minimum guaranteed storage capacity and the maximum warehouse receipt amount total16.65 million tons, which can ensure the smooth operation of corn as a large variety of physical delivery.
Once upside down, corn import costs are still rising.
"The short-term pressure on corn has been released to the disk, but the fundamental bullish factors still exist." Tian, the futures research department of CITIC Jiantou (22. 10+2.50%), believes that if the market continues to decline, it will give the global supply chain a chance to enter.
On May 24th, the Ministry of Commerce of China indicated that the General Administration of Customs had signed the Protocol on Quarantine Requirements of Corn Plants Exported to China from Brazil (Revised Edition). This agreement will be approved by the Ministry of Agriculture of China, or it will promote the import of Brazilian corn. For a long time, Brazilian corn has not occupied the mainstream in China.
In fact, due to the international food shortage and rising food prices, the price of imported corn was once upside down. As of May 25th, the duty-paid price of corn in the United States in July was 3,244.52 yuan/ton, the spot price of corn in Liaoning Port was 2,945 yuan/ton, and the import profit was -299.52 yuan/ton.
Tian believes that Brazil's corn imports are insufficient on the one hand because of Brazil's genetically modified corn import review, and on the other hand, because Brazil's current quotation has risen with the upward price of corn in the United States, which has superimposed the disadvantages of transportation distance and made it difficult to produce advantages in import costs.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in May 19, China's corn import in April this year was 22 10000 tons, which was lower than that in March, but increased by 19.4% year-on-year. In the first four months of this year, corn imports were 93 1 10,000 tons, up 8.5% year-on-year. In addition to the increase in imported corn, the scale of imported soybeans is also increasing rapidly. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 6.3 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in April, up 1.20% from 2.87 million tons in March and up 24% from 5.08 million tons in the same period last year. In the first four months of this year, China imported 0/2.7 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, up 97.8% from 6.42 million tons in the same period last year.