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What challenges and opportunities will China's economy face under the economic crisis?
Recently, the global financial turmoil triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis is getting out of control. The word "crisis" makes our domestic stock market and futures investors deeply feel its true meaning. Present form: Everyone has seen the crisis, but where are the opportunities? In today's financial globalization, the economies of various countries have already had me in you and you in me. The financial crisis in the United States is not his own business, and the whole world has to follow. Although the current economic system centered on the US dollar is unreasonable, it is still the pillar supporting the development of the world economy. Before the new system is formed, it must be maintained and not allowed to collapse. This will make the world economy fluctuate and adjust, which is not good for anyone. Therefore, all countries, whether winners or losers, should help the United States through this crisis. Let it adjust slowly and give the world a buffer time. While we are going through the difficulties together, the cause of each country is also collapsing at the same time. Let's start with Europe. Although there is a problem with the hegemony of the dollar, it is a big plus for the euro. But it doesn't want the dollar economy system to collapse. On the one hand, Europe is also the beneficiary of this system. They just want to share the greater benefits of the reserve currency with the US dollar. On the other hand, Europe is the economy most closely linked with the American economy. If the world economy is in great turmoil because of the collapse of the US dollar, Europe will suffer the most besides the United States. It will also bring unbearable pressure to the euro and even disintegrate from now on. Therefore, the attitude of Europe is: there can be no collapse crisis. This situation must be stopped together, but we should not be too supportive of the United States, so that we can suppress it after he recovers. Therefore, Europe's attitude towards the United States should be both an enemy and a friend, helping people in need rather than helping them. For Japan, it is not only the victim but also the beneficiary of this system. As long as you don't bully the Lord, you can still benefit from this system. The problem is his sovereign state. The dollar really collapsed, no matter who will dominate the monetary system in China or Europe in the future. It is not a good thing for Japan, a country that focuses on foreign trade. In the future, if you are bound by the United States politically and another country economically, it is better to give yourself to a country to protect it. Therefore, it is the best choice to fully maintain this system and benefit from it. The impact of this crisis on China is not too great. At most, it is to lose some investment and some money. Secondly, the overall recession of the world economy brought about by the crisis has made it more difficult for China to export. It has affected many export-dependent enterprises. As we all know, China is the largest creditor in the United States, holding a large number of American creditor's rights. Some people say that China is the biggest loser of this crisis, but I don't think so. China invested a lot of foreign exchange in the United States, which became the national debt of the United States, reflecting the helplessness of China, a country with a population of 65.438+0.3 billion. Under this unfair system, we have experienced the process of Japan and the four little dragons in Asia. This process is also a process that must be experienced in the process of China's rise. China's strategy can only be to stabilize the status quo and adjust slowly. Its adjustment strategy is to gradually balance its dependence on the United States and the dollar on Europe and the euro. But unfortunately, the crisis happened before the adjustment was in place. Can't say that China is a big loser. Imagine why the development of Japan's four Asian dragons was looted by the United States, but we didn't have such an experience. The answer is precisely because the huge US debt in our hands has deeply trapped the United States. So that they can't force China to open its financial market as they please, just like playing the game of "big dollar depreciation" or "big dollar appreciation" or coercing the Japanese. As we all know, if we throw it away, China will be the boss, which will trigger a frenzy of selling dollars and accelerate the collapse of the dollar system. Everyone is finished together! Imagine that without such a beautiful debt, Paulson's attempt to come to China again and again to open up finance and accelerate appreciation would be in vain? In the worst case, the United States collapsed and China was wiped out. I think, 1. At the cost of 8 trillion yuan, it is not an exaggeration to end a world hegemon that has held China in check for many years and make room for its own development. At present, China naturally does not want the dollar to collapse. Let yourself suffer huge losses. I also hope to adjust gradually. In this way, the world's major economies do not want to see the dollar collapse, so they will unite as much as possible to jointly prevent this crisis. But in any case, the adjustment of the dollar system is inevitable after this campaign. In the future adjustment, the hegemony of the dollar is likely to be shared by the four major economies, and the world is likely to form a new pattern of world currencies: the dollar, the yen, the euro, the renminbi and the four major currencies. Of course, this adjustment process will take time, especially if the RMB wants to become one of the poles, there are still many ways to go. What kind of opportunities will it bring to China in the face of this major economic restructuring? First of all, the adjustment of economic structure has shortened the time for China to catch up with the world powers, which is relatively beneficial to China. Because this adjustment is mainly aimed at countries that benefited from the monetary system in the early stage, including the new and new economies represented by China, but it is only affected, not the main target of adjustment. Second: At present, the object of people's reflection and disgust on the American issue is precisely China's strong point. China and the United States are like two economies facing each other in a mirror. People don't like China's advantages now. For example, American savings are low-China's savings are high, and American bonds are too developed-China bonds have just started, and the United States is heavily in debt-China is a net creditor's right, and the United States has insufficient liquidity-China has excess liquidity, and American financial innovation is excessive-China has just started, and so on. An economy like China is undoubtedly a paradise that shocks international capital. Third, no country has a huge domestic demand market and huge development potential like China. In today's bleak world economy, it is particularly precious to have such a strong economic depth and inject strong vitality into the domestic demand market. Since the reform and opening up, the development space of China's domestic demand market has been greatly reduced, which is less than half the size of developed economies. At present, the domestic domestic demand market is sluggish. Under the circumstances that exports are greatly hindered by the economic crisis and domestic investment is in surplus for years, China can only take domestic demand as its sunshine avenue. If we want to stimulate domestic demand and solve the problems of rural areas, agriculture and farmers that were seriously lagging behind in the past, we should put it at the starting point of stimulating domestic demand. We must solve the long-standing unresolved social security problem. Dispel people's worries, let them dare to spend, let them have money in their pockets, and let the people benefit from the achievements of China's economic development in recent years. How much vitality these measures will inject into the economy! Therefore, in the foreseeable future, no economy in the world will be as dynamic as China. Only China will become the engine for the world to survive this crisis and grow steadily! ! ! 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