1975 Nobel Prize winners koopman and Leonid Kontorovich are a typical example. When their article The Optimal Theory of Asset Allocation won the Nobel Prize, they claimed that they would make a lot of money from their theoretical investment. A reporter asked the two men if they planned to invest in the Nobel Prize to prove their theory. The two men replied, "We are preparing for this." However, this theory did not succeed in their practice, but the bonus soon disappeared.
There are many similar examples, such as 1997 Nobel Prize winners Merton and Scholes, who founded the investment company after winning the Nobel Prize based on the option pricing theory, but were repeatedly frustrated in the futures market until the company closed down. Irving Fisher, the "father of monetary economics", also lost millions of dollars in the 1929 American stock market crash. Merton, who founded the capital asset pricing model, also lost his company due to bankruptcy in the Russian financial crisis in the 1990s. Even alan greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, whose term of office spanned six American presidents, finally suffered a fiasco in the stock market.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand this phenomenon if we know what the basic job of economists is. In short, the measure of an economist's level is not whether he can predict the trend of quasi-stock market and real estate market, but whether he can tell investors what has happened in a certain field through detailed data and logic. In addition, economic operation is a nonlinear dynamic system, which may suddenly change at any time, that is to say, economic operation is almost unpredictable. However, economists usually make static current forecasts under hypothetical conditions. Therefore, the predicted results are far from reality.