Learning is to make continuous progress, study, study and strive for advantages. You shouldn't be lazy, greedy or lustful.
Sensitivity means that you should keep track of different markets and seize opportunities with high odds and probability in time.
From a macro point of view, large-scale asset allocation, that is, long-term price fluctuations, which are big and which are small. Macroscopically, it is difficult to directly implement specific single asset allocation, such as which commodity to invest in and which stock to buy, which needs to move from macro to micro.
There are many macro indicators, such as growth indicators, inflation indicators, industrial inventory indicators and so on. From the monetary point of view, there are interest rate indicators. However, for a single product investment, you don't have such tools as interest rate. You can only infer the relationship between supply and demand from inventory, basis, profit, operating rate, etc. So macros always make you feel a little tired. You said the general direction of the whole product, I can only make one variety. You talk about the general direction of the whole stock market, and I want to be a stock.
Is this macro problem important? Macroscopically, it is very important to control the general direction. For large funds, I can use the light warehouse to match the combined profit system, and I can also switch the share ratio in time.
But for a petty bourgeoisie like me, the holding period is generally not more than 1 year, which is generally the life cycle of the main contract. Take 1905 contract as an example. Generally, after 190 1 month, the contract will be changed to one month, and it will become the main contract in May until 1909 contract becomes April.
As shown in the above figure, even if there is a big trend on the supply side, it will fluctuate for 2 -3 months, and then it will retreat for a few months, hitting 50-60%, while you only have a position cycle of 2-3 months and can only make short-term trends.
You will say, I can take it for a year or two, and then change positions constantly, but should I enlarge the positions when changing positions? If you zoom in, changing the position will amplify the risk. Did you lose money when you changed positions? If you lose money, you need to make up funds for the next position, which will take up new funds.
This is not the most important thing, the most important thing is the rise of more than three months. This macro expectation is too complicated to grasp. /kloc-who can see that industrial products can grow like this at the end of 0/5? I can't believe it. 15- 18. In three years, there will be as many bears as there are cows. Who knew I wouldn't get nothing for a year?
In addition, not doing macro long-term cycle is also considered from the perspective of profitability.
All our purposes are to make money. So, what should I do about the long-term stock market? Of course, it is to make a lot of money, because the increase of goods is limited, and doubling it is a huge market. Even with 10 times leverage, it is only 10 times, but there is no limit to the rise of stocks. Once the bull market starts, stocks are very powerful.
Long-term stocks are easy to shine, why? Because stocks rely on imagination, basically no one will limit your gains. As long as someone buys it at buy buy, it will go up and up.
What about futures? There are too many twists and turns and too many short-term rises. I'll photograph the delivery for you, but I can't photograph it downstream. After all, this is a commodity that will affect the whole body. Steel costs tens of thousands, and you still let the downstream live? What will ppi and cpi rise to? Will the government agree?
Therefore, there are several ways to do stocks;
1, the concept of short-term speculation.
2, the profit logic of the center line (with macro conditions)
3. Long-term macro logic.
In fact, the corresponding goods are exactly the same.
1, short-term capital logic, make up the basis difference.
2. The supply and demand logic of the midline.
3. Long-term macro logic and productivity logic.
The strongest logic this year, pork logic, has increased by nearly 10 times in three months, which is unimaginable in futures. Why? There is no limit to stocks, only imagination. Futures are up 1 times, and stocks are up 10 times, so stocks are safer.
Shop around, even if it's super big, it's 1 times. No matter how long it takes, it will go where it came from. Even if the macro market of rebar is less than 3 times in the middle, it is extremely difficult and dangerous. Unless you can hold a position for a long time, you can't choose a position to change positions, and the position can't be fixed. If only 0. 1 is used, it is equivalent to 1 times of the principal. What about the fluctuations in the middle? Withdraw 10% of the principal, which is irresistible. What should I do if I meet a delivery person? Cut it and open a position for a long time? What if it falls again? Re-establish Can't you get through so much principal? This time cost and opportunity cost are too high. If you use 0.0 1, that is, 10% position, 30% for three years, what is the yield? It's terrible.
Therefore, commodities are not suitable for large position cycles unless there is obvious contradiction. It is ok for small funds to hold positions for one year, such as sugar, and keep positions in the middle.
Stocks are different. What if I take him for five years as long as you have a clear direction and as long as it is a valuable ticket? He will give me rich profits.
Similarly, 15-19, four years, nearly 10 times. What rate of return can reach 10 times? This is the charm of stocks. It has no restrictions, so it is most suitable for long-term work, and as long as the company is good, you basically have no risks.
Shougang shares, too, has tripled from 15 to 17, which is simply relaxing.
1, the advantage of futures is in the short and medium term. If you give up short-term, you must make good use of the mid-line opportunity of 1-3 months, accumulate the principal with a lively attitude, increase your position as much as possible, and make good use of compound interest, otherwise you will fall short.
2, the long-term trend of futures can not be met, if you encounter certain opportunities, you can still do it, mainly to save your time and cost, but mainly in the medium term.
3. The medium-term trend of stocks is better than that of commodities. In particular, there is an opportunity to determine profit expectations.
(1) When there is a big contradiction in commodities, we must pay attention to stocks, stocks and stocks, and create an opportunity for this contradiction to break out and turn over once.
(2) When there is a big problem with the currency, we must pay attention to stocks, stocks and stocks. For example, 14 speculation, for example, this year's speculation, the short-term increase is definitely greater than futures.
4. Be sure to pay attention to the long-term opportunities of stocks. It is not a dream for a good company to make a macro transfer and hold 10 times 100 times.
Other investments, such as bonds, are low-yield transactions. Foreign exchange, be short. As far as macro hedging is concerned, it is a model and a local opportunity in the short and medium term. Compound interest is the same as futures.
1, securities: look at the big investment banks. After the B wave, if you hold the faucet for a long time, it will basically not thunder.
2. Mid-term: pork, the inventory will be lower in the third quarter.
1, polyolefin: long-term overcapacity, full inventory in the medium term, only one drop.
2. Apples and red dates: the increase in production and overlapping consumption are insufficient, only one drop.
3. Oil-to-meal ratio: The decline of pig stocks is certain, the consumption of soybean meal is reduced, the crushing is reduced, the stock of soybean oil is reduced, and the oil-to-meal ratio is flying.