It stands to reason that the obvious slowdown of +IPO is definitely good, but last week, when the market was unanimously bullish, the market actually staged a market that opened higher and went lower. The new reduction was originally intended to prevent the outflow of market funds, but it accelerated the flight of arbitrage funds. Therefore, many people are still worried that no consensus was reached at the end of the day, and the views of all parties are very different. But Master Xing believes that there are differences before there is a chance. If consensus leads to a large opening of the collective, it is mostly a trap.
But then again, no matter how many new shares are issued, it only affects market sentiment. The slowdown will boost investor confidence, but the fundamental reason for the continued downturn in the stock market is the shortage of funds. The emergence of money shortage is a sign of artificial tightening. As we all know, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June is extremely high. In order to avoid the outflow of domestic funds after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the RMB has recently reduced the money supply, leading to the continuous appreciation of the RMB. A few days ago, the Hibor interest rate of RMB in Hong Kong exceeded 40%, indicating that funds are extremely tight.
Fortunately, the newly announced number of non-agricultural workers in the United States in May was far lower than expected, making the interest rate hike in June, which is close to certainty, full of variables again. Goldman Sachs even said that the Fed would not raise interest rates until September. If the Fed fails to raise interest rates in June, the money shortage of A shares is expected to be alleviated.
Xingye predicts that this IPO slowdown will not be like the phenomenon of a large number of daily limit and large opening after the Dragon Boat Festival, but will be a relatively mild counterattack. However, if the market outlook wants to stabilize and start to rebound, it must be matched by the enlargement of the volume, otherwise it is hooliganism without the enlargement of the volume.
Judging from Friday's disk, Xiong 'an, which represents the hot plate, and the second highest delivery, which represents the oversold plate, led the gains. Xingye continues to advise investors to pay attention to Xiong 'an and Jixin. As far as the sub-new shares are concerned, it is less likely that the sub-new shares that are oversold will continue to fall, and the rebound will be much stronger. For example, Hong Qiang's shares, which have fallen twice in a row, and the newly superimposed Xiong 'an concept can also be paid due attention.
As for Xiong 'an's hype, we should try our best to tap low-level logic stocks and have strong stocks. For example, the share price of maiden voyage energy saving is at a low level, which is obviously positive, but it is difficult to get up if the stock is not good. Xingye suggested focusing on the branches of Xiong 'an New, focusing on low-level stocks, such as Nanguo Real Estate, Du Nan Environment, Donghua Technology, etc., and never chasing stocks that rose more than 30% or entered the downtrend channel.
Author: Rob Western Wall
Introduction: I have worked in securities companies, futures companies and private equity funds, and now I am a invited author of Oriental Fortune and a well-known blogger of Fortune Online. Sina Finance Stock Reviewer; Proficient in: A shares, futures and foreign exchange.
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