Cao Renchao: This adjustment is estimated to be longer than last August. The reason is that the central government has tightened credit to the real estate market. In the past few trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.9% to 2,980 points, while the mainland real estate index fell by 9.5%. Since 16 began trading in the mainland futures index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (3 190.003,-1.54, -0.36%) futures index has fallen by 6.8%, which is greater than the spot index.
China securities journal reporter: How do you judge the market outlook?
Cao Renchao: The 50-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index is 3057, and the 250 antenna is 30 10, which is very close. Under the sensitive triangle formed since August last year, the support has been declared lost, and short-term A shares may be greatly adjusted. The "policy market" that I was worried about when I was interviewed in March this year has now appeared. In the first stage of the bear market, if the 50 antenna falls below the 250 antenna, it is a death cross. On the contrary, in the second stage of the bull market, if the 50-antenna falls below the 250-antenna, it can only show that the volatile market continues, not that the bull market dies. This point must be made clear first, and it cannot be fixed. As analyzed last month, the A-share market will only extend the adjustment period to the second or third quarter of this year. The most optimistic estimate is that the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized at 2890 points to form a small double bottom rebound, and the most pessimistic estimate is that it fell to 2639 points to form a big double bottom and then rebounded.
Stock index futures only increased the range of shocks and shortened the time. You won't see how many times a day it goes up and how many times it goes down. Because this stock index futures can't make money, no matter whether it goes up or down, it takes more points to make money. Yesterday and today I was confirming the small double bottom of 2890, and so on. In a few days, the goods can be put in. Because the second stage of the bull market is coming. .