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The truth about RMB settlement of iron ore

Because I like chess as an amateur, and it happened to be the Elephant Tournament, I downloaded Tik Tok to watch and learn, and then brushed up on the knowledge that Tik Tok hands are particularly easy to slip off.

So I followed a blogger named Dr. Sany and posted a short video on RMB settlement of convex and concave iron ore. You can search for the short content of the video, but I was not calm when he mentioned some specific content. He mentioned that Australia's iron ore has been settled in RMB, and "cash on delivery" should be settled at the CIF price. Then an analysis shows that China seems to have mastered the pricing power of iron ore through various games. Australia obeyed China's orders and was forced to settle in RMB, "cash on delivery".

I personally pay more attention to the iron ore trading market, and I have also thought about the impact of Weibo on China’s iron ore import market. This view can be said to be a refreshing one. Because when I searched for data last month, I also conducted a correlation analysis, which showed that the correlation between Dalian iron ore prices and Australian ore CIF prices has increased in the past year. My simple judgment at the time was that the transportation cost of Brazilian iron ore had increased due to the increase in sea freight. Moreover, I saw an obvious mistake in his video at that time. He confuses Australia's iron ore exports, which account for 40% of Australia's total exports, with China's iron ore imports, which account for about 67% of Australia's iron ore imports.

So I pointed out the error in a private message.

The original text is basically this: Hello, Dr. Trinity. I watched your short video about iron ore. The content is humorous, but still not that rigorous. The first point is that Australia's iron ore exports account for 40% of Australia's total exports to China, not 40% of China's iron ore imports. I have been engaged in iron ore related research. In the past three years, with the increase in sea freight, China's iron ore dependence on Australian mines has not decreased, but increased. Secondly, there is a difference between RMB spot price settlement and RMB settlement. The RMB spot price may refer to the China Iron Ore Price Index proposed by the China Iron and Steel Association, which was formerly the Platts Index or the MB Index. Third, Australia and Western countries have dug many holes for us in terms of overseas iron ore mining rights. For example, Anshan Iron and Steel Co.’s acquisition of the Carrara mine has robbed many small targets in Anshan. The Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea has been going back and forth for ten years, but it still has not achieved mass production, mainly because of Rio Tinto’s disruption.

Of course, my nearly three million fans must not have noticed my little bit of transparency, so I’m confused. I'm going to check the news in two days. Maybe it’s because I don’t have enough information and haven’t paid attention to domestic and international issues for a long time.

After two days, the doubts in my heart only increased. I went to Tik Tok to search for information on RMB settlement of Australian iron ore. I found that there are many such video bloggers, and the content is similar to what Dr. Trinity said, but the quality of the videos is slightly different. Everyone (Ye) Xue (Xu) and (Fan) Xue (Xiang) transmitted most of the content of a certain sound and made it into a video.

So I searched for relevant content on Zhihu and found a report on May 12, 2020. The reported question was: How do you think China Baowu and the world's three largest iron ore suppliers have all implemented RMB settlement?