To do futures trading, we must have a big picture;
When doing futures, sometimes it is required that the mind is not too complicated. A simple mentality at a certain stage is very helpful for you to do a good job in futures. I quite agree with Mr. Zhang Dongsheng's point of view: You should have a big picture, that is, don't deduct too many details, because the details are a very complicated problem, and you will never know. Grasping the overall situation and judging the general trend is something you can do through hard work.
Maybe some friends will say: I often don't do well or even make money on the premise of judging the general trend correctly. This is because you have given yourself many problems in practice. For example, at the beginning of a wave of gains, you followed, whether you were blindfolded or followed up in time according to your own judgment. Anyway, after a while, the trend of the market will tell you more and more clearly: now it is a wave of gains. At this time,
The first kind of people are the smartest people, that is, those who have a big picture, as Zhang Dongsheng said. They are futures players. They will be more and more confident that they will continue to hold multiple orders with the continuous development of the market, and appropriately add positions at the end of each new round of adjustment until the end of this wave of market. There are many signs that they have turned the tide and will find the right time to close all their multiple orders in the process of falling. This is easy to say.
The second kind of people are also smart people. They also have a big picture in mind. With the development of the market, they feel that there is a wave of gains, but they can't control themselves. Especially if they have lost some money before this wave of gains, their floating profits will grow bigger and bigger with the development of the market. They can't stand the temptation of floating profit, and they are eager to turn floating profit into reality in order to seek psychological comfort, which leads to liquidation at an inappropriate time. All the problems behind are the sequela of this improper liquidation.
The third kind of person is more common. They don't have the big picture. They may accidentally make a short-term profit and then immediately close their positions. They completely ignore the general trend and take it one step at a time. But they move faster and won't get into deep trouble.
The most terrible thing is the fourth kind of person, who keeps making short-term empty orders during the consolidation period before the start of the market, and the effect is very good. Every time an empty sheet is quilted, there is a chance to make more profits. This time, they thought they had a chance to make a profit, so they got deeper and deeper, causing huge losses.
The first kind of people is the goal that each of us who do futures will pursue all our lives. If a person can achieve this level of futures, then he will certainly become a quite successful futures trader. But this goal may never be achieved for some people. The reason is that you have to have some outstanding people to reach that level. I have been in the futures circle for many years and have been in contact with various futures people. I have come to the conclusion that the future is related to personality. I forgot where I read this sentence: "Making money in futures is a reward for your excellent character, and losing money is a punishment for your bad character". I didn't understand this sentence at first, but now I think back. That's great.
To be the first person, you must do the following:
First of all, we must have a correct judgment on the market and firmly establish the overall situation concept. It's hard to do this on your own.
Secondly, you must have strong determination. Once the development of the market proves that your judgment is correct, you must stick to it and don't be tempted by petty profits. Even if you make a correct judgment on the market, you can't do it without determination.
The third point is difficult for most people to do, that is, don't make adjustments. Because you can't guarantee to close your position near the adjustment high point and re-enter the market near the adjustment low point. It is not easy to properly add positions after the adjustment. Once you close your position and the market goes up, it's hard for you to deal with it. Either admit to losing points or be dumped by the market.
The fourth point is: we must be psychologically prepared, and we must close our positions in the process of falling after the rally is completely over. Don't force yourself to close your position at the highest point. If you can do these four things, you can become the first person mentioned above. Hai Xiong means to find his own trading method and wait for the opportunity. . . . .
Simplify thinking, recognize the trend, and then follow suit. It takes patience to be long, courage to be short, and no contrarian orders. The use of funds is very important. You should have the courage to seize the opportunity when it appears, correct your mistakes in time, and don't procrastinate. In fact, it is as simple as futures.
The ability to judge the market needs you to improve slowly through your own trading experience.
When you judge the market in advance, but the market actually fluctuates within a range, it is easy to make money and lose money. This will be analyzed according to different markets.
Judging the long-term market is the embodiment of comprehensive ability, and you also need to consider all factors. You can't just use one method, and there is no direct method. The recommended practice is to combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis. For example, a friend pointed to the chart of corn in May this morning and said: Is it possible to form a head and shoulders? I said to him: if we can form a head and shoulders, we must have fundamental cooperation. If we think about the current corn according to the head and shoulders, its target price will be much lower than the spot, which can rule out the possibility of forming the head and shoulders. I think technical analysis itself is a method, and there are many possible analysis methods, so it must be supported by basic analysis. If the conclusions of technical analysis contradict the fundamentals, don't believe them. If the conclusion of technical analysis is consistent with the fundamentals, you should pay attention. My understanding is that the main function of technical analysis is to explain the process and details of the completion of the trend, and the judgment of the trend should be based on fundamentals. Technical analysis can help you choose the right time to enter the market.
There is another suggestion: there is a process to improve the ability. Start with something simple. For example, you can try to judge a medium-term trend first, learn from it and find a method that suits you. In the process of trading, we should first be good at discovering our own weaknesses and consciously overcome them. Do it bit by bit, and your ability will improve. Learn to use news according to your own characteristics.
When you hear a news, first of all, you should seriously think about what kind of news it is, whether it can fundamentally change the trend, or whether it can only affect the development process of the trend without changing the direction. Is it news that can have an immediate effect on the market, or news that takes a while to work? Is it news that has been widely spread, or is it only known to you or others? Then, combined with their own trading style, formulate their own countermeasures.
Everyone has their own different trading styles and characteristics. Some people like to do short-term, while others are good at doing long-term. So the same news has different effects on different people. For a short-term trader, any news that can cause trouble is very important. For those long-term traders, they only pay attention to the news that plays a fundamental role in the trend. When you hear a news, you should first analyze whether its impact on the market is short-term or long-term, whether it can change the trend or only change the process. Then combine your own trading style to determine your own coping style. Other people's opinions may not apply to you. Because his trading style may be different from yours, he will draw different conclusions. For example, in an upward trend, there is a temporary bad news that long-term people may not pay attention to. A short-term person must pay attention. On the contrary, in a downward trend, there is a bullish news that plays a great role in the future. Short-term customers can be completely ignored for the time being, because such news will not play a role in the market in the near future. For a long-term person, he will start looking for opportunities. Once he finds that the function of this news is reflected in the market, he will choose the right time to enter the market.
In Dalian Commodity Exchange, people have a habit: whenever a news comes out, everyone should call each other to exchange views, so as to know how everyone understands the news and how much it affects the market price. At this time, different views will appear. Some people think it will play a great role, while others think it has no effect. The fundamental reason is that everyone has different trading styles.
Learn to use news according to your own characteristics. Naively believe the report and think you have news. Most of them will be fooled
The information has been digested by the market when it comes out, unless it is important news. Any information must be processed by your own brain. Look at the essence from the phenomenon and draw useful conclusions for you.
Think of a sentence that _ _ said at a news conference many years ago: China's agriculture has been bumper for many years, and now the country's grain reserve can guarantee that even if the agricultural harvest fails in the next five years, we will have enough food. At that time, the newspaper also published photos of the press conference, and that shot happened to be _ _ _ _ reaching out and making a gesture of "no problem in five years". At that time, the price of soybeans in Dalian was very high, and we all looked at the photos and joked, "Yes, soybeans in Dalian will drop by five white points." I have a colleague who is a spot dealer in Heilongjiang. He said at the time: "The conclusion is wrong. Now all grain depots falsely report their stocks in order to defraud the state's inventory subsidies, so there is no problem in five years, and it will be revealed in two years. " He did more than one thing. I told him this truth: it doesn't matter whether the conclusion is right or wrong, what matters is what kind of impact it will have on the market. Even if the conclusion to be verified is wrong, it will have to wait until two years later. But the current fact is: if the market falls for at least half a year from now, can you resist it? Later, Dalian soybeans really fell by more than 500 points.
This example is given to show that it doesn't matter whether the news itself is right or not, what matters is how the market will react to the news. This is the focus that we futures people should pay attention to.
According to your own characteristics, choose the trading method that suits you. You should start with simplicity, accumulate experience bit by bit, and gradually transition to grasp the general trend and do a long-term job. It is important to recognize your own characteristics. Sometimes you think other people's methods are good, but for some reason, other people's methods may not be suitable for you. I have experienced it. My characteristic is that I get in and out quickly and feel more sensitive to the disk. A friend of mine is good at grasping the one-sided market. His characteristics are different from mine. He is very calm and gives a wide range of stop losses every time he places an order. This is easier than me, and the effect is good. Around 2000, I tried to change my practice and learned to increase the range of stop loss and reduce the frequency of making orders, but I failed twice, because my own personality determined that I couldn't stand it.
My own characteristic is that I move faster. The advantage of this feature is that I can guarantee that there will be no deep quilt cover first, and I can follow up when the market has just started. Its disadvantage is that I often lose money when the market fluctuates repeatedly. So for me, I want to overcome my shortcomings in a targeted manner and do less or not do orders when the market fluctuates. This is a method that suits my characteristics.
However, some people are just very suitable for volatile market. In the past, a friend liked the volatile market very much. If the market fluctuates for a long time, he will be like a duck to water and seize the opportunity to sell high and suck low. However, his achievements are often swallowed up by the subsequent unilateral potential, because he is very insensitive to unilateral market. In his words, he is a little afraid of unilateral potential. When he rises, he feels high, and when he falls, he feels low and dares not do it.
Some people may say, wouldn't it be better to have both characteristics? It's really good, but it's quite difficult to do. No matter what your characteristics are, as long as you make good use of your strengths and avoid your shortcomings, the effect is quite good. Just like competitive sports, Yao only plays basketball. As for the 1 10 meter hurdle, it is Liu Xiang's strong point, and Yao He just watches the fun. ..
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