The upstream raw materials rose sharply, but the middle reaches wanted to raise prices but could do nothing, and the prices could not be transmitted, but CPI and PPI were deflationary. It is said that car companies are difficult, in fact, the upstream supply chain is even more difficult.

Text/Autobots Scroll

On February 22, 65438, iron ore futures plummeted rarely, and panic spread in the afternoon. Hujiao and thermal coal successively fell, and then they were transmitted to the stock market. Non-ferrous and coal sectors followed the cyclical stocks and dived one after another.

In recent years, with the price of iron ore and black household appliances hitting record highs, the regulatory authorities have intervened. On the evening of 65438+February 2 1, Dashang fully implemented the monthly trading quota of iron ore futures contracts, and the market supervision was upgraded again.

Since the end of 10, the cost of various raw materials has gone up. At the same time, the CPI and PPI of 5438+0 1 in June continued the "double deflation" of 5438+00. Where did the rising price go?

Since the fourth quarter, the prices of bulk commodities led by black series have risen, the prices of raw materials for new energy vehicles have risen, and the prices of major raw materials such as copper, aluminum, plastics, steel and glass have risen due to insufficient production capacity and material shortage in the chip industry. The recent "power cuts" in Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang may also lead to the price increase of industrial products. Because of the 20 10 power cut, cement increased by 40% in four months, and the retail price of diesel increased from 7300 yuan per ton to 8300 yuan per ton.

This time, the superimposed dollar index fell below the 90 mark, the dollar fell, and commodities rose. This inverse correlation has always existed. The falling dollar means that chemical, nonferrous and black varieties are facing further upward pressure.

The price of main iron ore contracts has doubled since April this year, especially from June 165438+ 10 to February 2 1. Since the end of 10, the cumulative increase of thermal coal has reached 50%, a record high. Due to the rapid rise in short-term prices, the regulatory authorities have to intervene. In addition to substantially increasing the futures margin, they also set a price limit red line for thermal coal and began to restrict the trading of iron ore on June 5438+February 2 1. In this way, the rally was temporarily suppressed.

Goldman Sachs said that Brent crude oil price will reach $65 per barrel, which will be the beginning of a structural bull market, not just oil, but the whole commodity market.

The upward trend of raw materials in the upstream of new energy vehicles continues, and some institutions believe that it will last at least until the first quarter of 2002/kloc-0. In June 5438+February, the price of industrial and battery-grade lithium carbonate continued to rise, and some manufacturers also slightly raised the price of lithium hydroxide. Low-priced electrolytes have been completely withdrawn from the market since this month, and the market price has risen to a new level.

According to statistics, among 50 kinds of important industrial products, the prices of 43 kinds have increased, which is close to the peak of 20 16 -20 17 years. The reason for the "rise" is that autobots believe that: First, the dollar has fallen; Second, oil prices have risen; Third, China's demand is at a high level in recent years; Fourth, enterprises have replenishment needs before the Spring Festival; Fifth, it's cold this winter, and the energy demand has surged; Sixth, excess capital poured into the upstream supply chain. So many factors are superimposed on each other, resulting in the present situation.

"Autobots" once analyzed when Tianqi lithium industry was insolvent, and thought that the current price of lithium mineral products soared and the industry was in a rare dividend period in history. Although the company is heavily in debt, it should bring in strategic investors to help it out of trouble. Sure enough, the company announced that some foreign strategic investors planned to contribute 654.38+0.4 billion dollars to help them out, and the company still had a controlling stake.

Strangely, although upstream prices are rising, the reality is deflation. Autobots interpret that the CPI and PPI in June of 5438+00 are "double deflation", while the CPI and PPI in June of 5438+0 10 decreased by 0.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, continuing the "double deflation", indicating that the price increase in the upstream has not been transmitted to the downstream.

65438+February every year is the last month of the year-end impulse of the automobile industry. In order to achieve the goal, enterprises will certainly not raise prices against the market. Due to the strong bargaining power of vehicle manufacturers in the industrial chain, the cost of upstream price increase is actually borne by suppliers.

In fact, it is not difficult to understand that the price cannot be passed. The essence is that the demand for terminals is not so strong. China demand spread by institutions is only the reason why they speculate on commodities. The demand in China is not strong, but it is not bad. Some institutions believe that the upstream price increase may end in the first half of 20021. After all, if it can't be transmitted all the time, the reason for the price increase will no longer exist.

In addition to rising, the automobile industry chain also has cases of falling costs. Tengxu Mingxin, a listed company, is a leading enterprise in automobile interior leather. As a long-term partner of FAW-Volkswagen, the company's core competitiveness is that its leather seats and interiors are basically odorless. The company's cowhide mainly comes from imports. A mid-to high-end car needs a whole cowhide, and some SUVs even need two cowhides. After the outbreak of foreign epidemic, the supply of beef did not decrease, but no one came to buy cowhide, which gave Mingxin Teng Xu the opportunity to buy cowhide in bulk at a low price, and this part of the cost was also considerable.

After the COVID-19 epidemic in China was brought under control, the sales volume of the automobile industry gradually picked up, but due to the rising prices of raw materials, the profits of the industrial chain were swallowed up by rising costs. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, from June 5438+0 to June 5438+00 in 2020, the operating income of key automobile enterprise groups increased by 3.4% year-on-year, increasing by 10793 billion yuan. This means that a considerable part of the increase in raw material costs is borne by the supply chain. Of course, a few suppliers with strong bargaining power will raise prices, especially the enterprises upstream of new energy vehicles have stronger bargaining power, but due to fierce competition in the automobile market, it has little impact on the terminal price of automobiles at present.

The upstream raw materials rose sharply, but the middle reaches wanted to raise prices but could do nothing, and the prices could not be transmitted, but CPI and PPI were deflationary. It is said that car companies are difficult, in fact, the upstream supply chain is even more difficult. (Text/"Autobots" scrolling) Copyright statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of Autobots, and the copyright belongs to Autobots.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.