On May 13, USDA released the first annual report on global agricultural product supply and demand in 2022-2023.
The USDA issued a total of 65,438+05 reports a year. We also ranked the importance of these reports, and the report released in May ranked fifth.
Because in this report, the demand and output of new crops are estimated in detail, which provides a benchmark for subsequent market fluctuations.
In this report, a big change is that the global wheat production was lowered in 2022-23, and then the American wheat price rose by nearly 6%.
1, wheat fell for the first time.
The report adjusted the global wheat output to 774.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.5 million tons compared with the previous year, making it the first reduction of wheat output since 20 19-20 19.
Not only did the output decrease, but the ending inventory of wheat in 2022-2023 also fell to 267 million tons, the lowest level in the past six years.
At the same time, wheat consumption reached 787.5 million tons in the same period.
The total supply of wheat is 65.438+0.55 billion tons, a decrease of 65.438+0.596 million tons, and the global wheat pattern is even tighter.
Several major producing countries are expected to reduce production.
The total output of wheat has decreased, mainly because several major wheat producing countries are expected to reduce production one after another.
First of all, Ukraine, as a "granary in Eastern Europe", has been seriously affected by geopolitical conflicts. On the one hand, sowing has been seriously affected, on the other hand, the prices of fertilizers and fuels have risen, making planting more difficult.
Under this influence, it is estimated that the wheat yield in Ukraine is only 2 10.5 million tons, which is about 1/3, and the yield may hit a new low in10 years.
India, the world's second largest wheat producer, has experienced a sharp increase in wheat exports this year. However, since March, India has suffered a once-in-a-century high temperature, which has caused India to face not only a "coal shortage" and a "power shortage", but also a high probability of wheat production reduction.
High temperature weather may cause wheat to wither in the critical period of growth. The Indian Farmers Association and other organizations predict that the yield of wheat in India may drop to 10%.
The United States and France are also affected by weather factors.
Due to severe dry weather, more than 68% of winter wheat crops in the United States are facing a reduction in production, while spring wheat has been delayed due to excessive land moisture, and the current sowing progress has been significantly slower than in previous years.
As a major wheat producer in the European Union, France is also short of water due to drought, and it is expected that wheat production will be reduced by 30%-50%.
There are exceptions when many major producing countries are expected to reduce production one after another.
As the largest wheat exporter in the world, Russia has a very favorable weather. According to experts' prediction, Russian wheat production may reach a record 87 million tons, and wheat export is expected to increase to 4 1 10,000 tons.
However, due to the increasing sanctions, it is expected that Russian wheat exports will encounter resistance and may not be able to enter the global market smoothly.
The price of wheat may rise to 2023.
Previously, wheat prices continued to climb due to multiple factors such as rising commodity prices and market concerns caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of wheat has increased by 40%, and the market is generally pessimistic about the later period.
On the one hand, because wheat is a grain ration, under the tight global wheat supply and demand situation, many exporting countries have tightened their exports, while importing countries hope to increase their imports to reserve more food. At one time, the trend of food protectionism has risen, which will once again make the wheat market situation more severe.
On the other hand, the current price increase at the grain end has been transmitted to the downstream consumer market, and with the higher price of wheat, the price of flour products in the consumer terminal market remains high, which in turn will resonate with the price of wheat again.
Therefore, some analysts believe that this will raise the price of wheat to 2023.
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