Occupational annuities have made new progress in entering the market, exceeding 700 billion or flooding into A shares.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: African swine fever was diagnosed among pigs transferred from Heilongjiang to Zhengzhou, Henan Province.
Market review
Market comment: the adjustment of market shrinkage and the rebound of RMB exchange rate are expected to ease the pressure on A shares.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery: CPI rose more than expected in July, and the rapid rebound of pork prices had a great impact.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 263.675, down 0.45%; Copper 47830, up 0.25%; The oil distribution in London was 7 1.43, up by 0.95%; Rebar 4 17 1, up 0.77%; Aluminum 14450.0, up by 0.42%; Shanghai nickel 1 10620, up1.94%; Zheng Chun 3282, down1.38%; The PVC index was 74 15.0, up by 0.88%; Iron ore was 494.5, down 0.40%; Coking coal 1275.5, up1.23%; Coke 259 1, up 2.63%; Rubber 1 1890, down 0.29%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5838, up 0.14%; Corn 1883, down 0.48%; Palm oil was 4,878.0, up 0.33%; Cotton 16625, up by 0.67%; Zheng Mai 2635.0, down 0.42%; Sugar was 4959.0, up 0.59%.
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 1374, up by 0.25%; USD/RMB 6.8583, down1.27%; USD/HKD7.8495, up 0.00%.
New stock tips
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Main recommendations
1, occupational annuities have made new progress in entering the market, exceeding 700 billion or flooding into A shares.
According to china securities journal, new progress has been made in the investment and operation of occupational annuity, which has attracted much attention. According to sources, the selection of occupational annuity trustees of central state organs and institutions (hereinafter referred to as central units) is under way. The pension insurance management center of the central state organs, in conjunction with eight trustees, is currently inviting tenders for the occupational annuity trustees of the central units, and the process is already halfway through.
According to its disclosure, the custodian's tender has been issued, and the next step will be the custodian's on-site bid opening and bid evaluation. Organize the relevant bid evaluation work of the custodian in the middle and late of this month as soon as possible.
What is the scale of occupational annuity entering the A-share market? Some insiders predict that the occupational annuity will cover more than 40 million people in terms of stock, with an average annual payment of about 654.38+050 billion yuan. The system stipulates that payment shall be made from 2065.438+04, 654.38+00 and 654.38+0. If it is fully implemented in the first half of next year, the initial working capital will be nearly 700 billion yuan. Although the policy stipulates that the upper limit of occupational annuity fund's investment in equity assets is 30%, according to the past investment experience of enterprise annuity fund, it is expected that the investment manager will control the proportion at about 15% on average, which means that there will be a total of nearly 1000 billion yuan invested in the stock market in the initial stage of occupational annuity operation. Another insider's calculation is more conservative, thinking that the above ratio may be only 10% on average.
Comments: Although the calculated occupational annuity scale is 700 billion yuan, the actual funds that can be invested in A-shares are estimated to be only about 654.38+000 billion yuan, which can only be considered as far water at most, and it is difficult to solve the thirst of A-shares. This news has a greater psychological support for investors and is expected to stimulate the short-term rebound of the market.
(Investment Consultant Jin Cai Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S02606 1 1090020)
2. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The pigs transferred from Heilongjiang to Zhengzhou, Henan Province were diagnosed as African swine fever.
The Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released on August 16 that an African swine fever epidemic occurred in the slaughterhouse of a food company in Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone, Henan Province.
On August 14, a truck full of pigs died of unknown reasons in the slaughterhouse of a food company in Zhengzhou Economic Development Zone, Henan Province, with a total of 260 pigs, of which 30 were sick and 30 died. The quarantine certificate of origin shows that these pigs came from the trading market in Heli Town, Tangyuan County, Jiamusi City, Heilongjiang Province. In the early morning of August 16, it was diagnosed as African swine fever by the National Center for Exotic Animal Diseases of China Center for Animal Health and Epidemiology.
After the outbreak, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs immediately sent supervision teams to Henan and Heilongjiang. Henan has started the emergency response mechanism as required, and adopted measures such as blockade, culling, harmless treatment and disinfection to prohibit all pigs and susceptible animals and products from being transported into or out of the blockade area. Investigation and epidemiological investigation have been carried out in Heilongjiang province. At present, the epidemic has been effectively controlled.
Comments: The African swine fever epidemic will have a negative psychological impact on pork stocks in the short term, but it is expected to accelerate the industry's de-capacity in the medium term, which is expected to promote the early arrival of the pig cycle; In addition, although there is no African swine fever vaccine at present, the animal vaccine unit is still expected to gain performance opportunities in the short term.
(Investment Consultant Jin Cai Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S02606 1 1090020)
Market review
1, Market Comment: The adjustment of market shrinkage and the rebound of RMB exchange rate are expected to ease the pressure on A shares.
On Thursday, due to the fluctuation of the external stock market and foreign exchange market, the market gapped sharply and opened lower. After falling out of 2672 points, which is also a two-and-a-half-year low, it gradually stopped falling and turned red. It fell again in late trading, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2705 points, down 0.63%. The GEM index closed at 1463, down 0.66%. The turnover between the two cities was 268.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.5 billion yuan from Wednesday. In terms of sector performance, telecom operations, 5G and communication equipment rose slightly, and the financial sector led by securities showed signs of main support, but the strength was weak. Other sector indexes all closed green, with wine making, pork, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, warehousing and logistics leading the decline.
What caused the market volatility on Thursday was basically the news of the turmoil in global stock markets and foreign exchange markets. In addition to the sharp drop in European and American stock markets, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority made three emergency purchases to rescue the Hong Kong dollar overnight on June 5438+05, and the offshore RMB fell below the 6.95 mark against the US dollar by more than 500 basis points. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was called a technical bear market, and the FTSE China A50 index in Singapore fell by 3.55%. Behind these, with the advancement of the Fed's interest rate hike, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, and global liquidity continued to return to the United States, which triggered everyone's concerns about triggering a global crisis. As far as the stock market is concerned, as long as the exchange rate does not stabilize, A shares will inevitably suffer, which has become an iron law. Judging from the market performance on Thursday, after the intraday plunge, the panic disk was once released, and the momentum of further market plunge may be weakened. However, considering that the United States may escalate its trade war at the end of August to tax China's 200 billion export commodities, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again in September, and the RMB exchange rate is unstable. Repeated fluctuations in the A-share market in the short term may be the main tone. Before the market stabilizes, the overall operation is mainly to wait and see. Those with lighter positions pay attention to technology growth stocks, and short-term funds pay attention to those with higher dips to avoid frequent operations.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
2. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery: CPI rose more than expected in July, and the rapid rebound of pork prices had a great impact.
In recent July, the CPI was 2. 1% year-on-year, expected to be 2%, and the previous value was 1.9%. In July, the CPI was 0.3% month-on-month, and the previous value was -0. 1%. Non-food rose over-seasonally, and CPI was slightly higher than expected, mainly in July. Non-food was +2.4% year-on-year and +0.3% quarter-on-quarter, slightly higher than seasonal. The sharp rise in pork prices led to a rebound in the year-on-year growth rate of food. In July, the food category rose by 0.5% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected, mainly because the food category rose by 0. 1% month-on-month. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the inflation level center may have a slow upward trend.
Investment Comments: CPI rose more than expected in July, mainly due to the rebound in the price of pork and other foods. Affected by Sino-US trade disputes, imported commodities such as soybeans and pork will face tax increases, which will bring upward pressure on domestic agricultural products. The low CPI in the first half of the year is mainly due to the unexpected drop in pork prices, and the pig prices will gradually return to normal in the second half of the year. At the same time, the prices of domestic agricultural products are supported by Sino-US trade friction, crude oil prices and grain destocking. There is a high probability that the inflation center will go up in the future, so investors are advised to pay attention to the agricultural sectors such as pork and animal husbandry.
(The investment consultant has registered the investment consultant certificate number: S02606 130900 15)
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