According to public data, the battery-grade lithium carbonate 65438+ 10 fell by 7,000 yuan/ton to 476,500 yuan/ton on October 6, hitting a new low of more than four months, and the price has fallen for 26 consecutive days. We should know that in the past 2022, the annual average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by more than 80%, and even some sporadic transactions reached a high price of 600,000 yuan/ton.

Today, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen below 500,000 yuan/ton, and it is likely to continue to fall. Guosen Securities predicts that the global lithium salt supply and demand fundamentals will reverse in 2023, from the mismatch between supply and demand in 2022 to oversupply. It is expected that supply and demand will remain tight and the price of lithium will fall, which is a slow decline as a whole.

The decline in the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate makes power battery companies and car companies in the middle and lower reaches of the new energy automobile industry chain very excited. "After the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate drops, the procurement cost of power batteries should also be reduced simultaneously, so that car companies have more independent (operational) space in product prices." A person in charge of an independent car company told the reporter of National Business Daily.

It has not been transmitted downstream.

Due to the long industrial chain of new energy vehicles, there are automobile manufacturers, power battery manufacturers, electrode material suppliers and lithium salt miners from downstream to upstream. This round of price adjustment of lithium battery materials such as battery-grade lithium carbonate will not be quickly transmitted to the downstream in a short time, and it will take about 2~3 months.

According to the reporter's understanding, after several rounds of raw material price increases, the upstream lithium battery enterprises and downstream enterprises have formed price negotiations, and when necessary, they have put forward mechanisms such as price adjustment guidelines and price burden, thus ensuring the stability of supply and terminal sales prices.

Tianqi Lithium Industry (SZ002466, share price 87.22 yuan, market value14310 million yuan) said: "The specific sales price of the company's domestic lithium products is determined according to the business needs and operating conditions of different customers, and the price is mostly signed once a month. Foreign customers are mainly long orders, and the contract time is generally about 3~5 years. At present, the long-term orders signed by the company and customers are usually the agreed quantity, there is no price lock, and the price is implemented according to the pricing mechanism agreed by both parties. "

The staff of power battery manufacturer Yiwei Lithium Energy (SZ3000 14, share price 83.33 yuan, market value170/KLOC-0 million yuan) also said: "According to the current price transmission mechanism, if the price of lithium carbonate goes down, it needs to negotiate with the downstream."

However, in the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, "due to factors such as the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the downward adjustment of market growth expectations, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen below 400,000/ton at the futures end, and the battery cost will inevitably drop sharply in the next few months."

It is worth noting that although the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been adjusted back, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday preparation or holiday state, which has affected the procurement demand. In addition, due to the expected continuous decline in market prices, the wait-and-see mood is heavier.

Some analysts believe that with the sharp drop in the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate and the decline in downstream inquiry orders, most manufacturers are temporarily reluctant to stock up. Under the influence of the mentality of "buying up and not buying down", the seasonal wait-and-see mood is strong, traders' panic selling mentality is enhanced, and spot trading is still deserted.

The performance of several upstream lithium battery stocks increased ahead of schedule.

The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to decline, and upstream lithium battery companies do not seem to be worried.

Recently, Tianqi Lithium intends to acquire EssentialMetalsLimited(ESS) through its holding subsidiary Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia Limited (TLEA) for more than 600 million yuan. It is reported that ESS has about 110.2 million tons of lithium ore resources, with an average lithium oxide content of 1. 16%, and the specific lithium oxide equivalent calculated exceeds110,000 tons.

"At present, the production and operation of the company's production bases are normal and orderly, all management work is carried out stably, and production is saturated." Tianqi Dong Limi said in response to investors.

In 2022, it can be seen that the fluctuating lithium price once made lithium resources "white oil" and the owners became the big winners of the power battery industry chain. The 2022 annual performance forecast disclosed by Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (SZ000792, share price 23.99 yuan, market value130.3 billion yuan) shows that it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother will be15 billion yuan ~ 156 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 234.94% ~ 248.33.

Dang Sheng Technology (SZ300073, stock price 62 18 yuan, market value 3 149 billion yuan), which is mainly engaged in cathode materials for lithium batteries, disclosed its 2022 annual performance forecast, showing that the company expects to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion yuan to 2.3 billion yuan during the reporting period, up by10/.65% year-on-year.

Although the main trend of battery-grade lithium carbonate price in the industry in 2023 is bearish, supported by downstream demand, the decline of lithium carbonate price seems limited.

Huaxi Securities predicts that with the production and operation of the new energy automobile industry chain gradually returning to normal in February this year, the downstream demand is expected to improve, and the price of lithium salt will gradually stabilize with a high probability. Tesla Model3 and ModelY recently announced sharp price cuts, which are also expected to stimulate market demand, thus raising expectations for lithium salt demand.

In addition, despite the current downward price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, the contradiction between the long development cycle of lithium mine and the demand of power battery expansion plan still exists, and lithium mine can still maintain its position as a "strategic resource" in the battery industry chain for a period of time.