According to the National Development and Reform Commission's Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices 16 issued on June 3, 20/6: "When the crude oil price in the international market is lower than 40? When using USD (inclusive), the price of refined oil is calculated according to the crude oil price of USD 40 per barrel and the normal processing profit rate. " Forty dollars a barrel is the so-called "floor price". After three falls and eight stranded, domestic oil prices ushered in the first increase this year.
According to the data of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, after three months, the international oil price once again stood at $40 per barrel. Among them, in this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (June11-June 27th), the highest price of London Brent oil was USD 43.08 per barrel, with an average of USD 40.87 per barrel.
From June 5438 to April this year, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out all over the world, which led to a sharp drop in oil demand and an extreme shortage of storage capacity, and the international oil price fell sharply to a low level in the past two decades. Among them, new york WTI crude oil even fell to a negative value of -37.63 USD/barrel before the May contract was delivered on April 20th. Extremely low oil prices have brought heavy pressure to major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and prompted all parties to reach a new round of historic maximum production reduction agreement. With OPEC+officially promoting production reduction in May, the output of oil-producing countries such as the United States also declined at low oil prices, more overseas countries relaxed epidemic control, demand expectations improved, and international oil prices gradually picked up. At present, the oil prices of Brent in London and WTI in new york have risen to 4 1 and 39 USD per barrel respectively.
Will international oil prices continue to rise?
Citibank said that OPEC+still maintained its efforts to curb the supply of crude oil, and US shale oil production has recently declined. The average target of Brent crude oil futures in the fourth quarter of this year is $48/barrel, and the average target of 202 1 fourth quarter is $665,438/barrel. Relatively optimistic about the crude oil market in 2022, because OPEC+has done a good job in complying with the production reduction agreement, some crude oil production projects have been postponed, and global crude oil production has declined.
The bank believes that the average price target of Brent crude oil in 2022 is 59 US dollars/barrel, and the average price target of Brent crude oil in 2023 is 55 US dollars/barrel. With the relaxation of blockade measures in various countries, the global demand for crude oil will continue to grow. But before the second half of 20021,the global demand for crude oil will not reach the level of 20 19. In mid-July, crude oil inventories will show strong growth.
Regarding the future trend of international oil prices, haitong futures said that in the medium and long term, the logic of fundamentals pushing up prices is still valid, and there is a high probability that demand will exceed supply in the second half of the year. It is expected that if the demand side is not disappointing in the future, oil prices will return to the upward trend. Satellite data show that the traffic volume of the world's major economies rebounded strongly, indicating that the fuel demand has improved. According to the data provided by TomTom, a technology company, there have been more traffic jams in Shanghai in the past few weeks than in the same period last year, and the traffic situation in Moscow has also returned to last year's level.
China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia in May nearly doubled compared with the same period of last year, reaching the highest level in history. Saudi Arabia remains the largest supplier of China, the world's largest oil importer. According to the data of China General Administration of Customs, the crude oil imported from Saudi Arabia reached 9165,000 tons in May, that is, 2160,000 barrels per day, an increase of about 95% compared with 438+01000,000 barrels per day in May 1965 and an increase from April.
However, there are also concerns that the sharp increase of COVID-19 infection cases in several southern States of the United States may hinder the recovery of fuel demand, especially Florida and Texas, which consume the most gasoline.
Many economists say that in the past month, the global economic outlook has deteriorated, and the recession is expected to be deeper than previously expected. CMC？ Michael, chief market strategist of Markets? McCarthy believes: "The market really ignores the fundamentals of supply and demand and seems to be more affected by trading sentiment."
In addition, as the global epidemic continues to rebound, the IMF issued the latest warning that there has been a disconnect between the optimism of financial markets and the evolution of the global economy. If the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic expands again, the blockade measures are re-implemented or the trade tension intensifies again, the stock and other risky asset markets may suffer a second plunge. (Part of the source: Shenzhen Times E Company Guan Wei and Hangzhou Stock Exchange 918; Compile/car home? Graduation)