Oil prices may rise sharply on Monday. Affected by the overall upward trend of international oil prices, the domestic crude oil change rate is firm and sustained, and the forecast increase is quite large. From this point of view, the decline in oil prices is basically hopeless, and the retail price of refined oil products will usher in the first round of increase at the beginning of the year. Oil prices may rise sharply on Monday.
Oil prices may rise by 1 on Monday, and domestic retail prices of refined oil products will usher in a new round of price adjustment.
Oil prices may rise sharply.
The international oil price rose by 1.75% on June 2, and the cumulative increase this week reached 4.5%.
And next Monday (10, 65438+ 17, 24: 00), the retail price of domestic refined oil will usher in a new round of price adjustment. Judging from the current trend, there is no suspense in this round of oil price rise. At present, the rate of change of crude oil is as high as 6.75%, and the cumulative increase is as high as that of 300 yuan, which is 2.5 gross after conversion.
On the 8th working day of 65438+1October 13, it is predicted that the cumulative oil price will be raised by 300 yuan/ton, which will be converted into 0.23-0.26 yuan/liter. Based on the calculation of 50 liters per box, it needs 1 1.5- 13 yuan, and the price adjustment time is 2022 13 yuan.
On Monday, oil prices may rise by 2. There are still 5 days before the opening of the domestic refined oil price adjustment window. Affected by the overall upward trend of international oil prices, the domestic crude oil change rate is firm and sustained, and the forecast increase is quite large. From this perspective, the decline in oil prices is basically hopeless. Next Monday, the retail price of refined oil will usher in the first round of increase in the new year.
# Today's latest oil price # Data show that by the seventh working day in China, the variety change rate of comprehensive crude oil is 6. 15%, and the oil price forecast is raised by about 290 yuan/ton, which is very close to the price increase of about 0.23 yuan per ton. Based on this calculation, it will cost the owner about 1 1.5 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of No.92 gasoline. The specific time of price adjustment is as follows.
The peak demand season in winter has promoted the consumption of crude oil. Although the oil exporting countries+increased production gradually released the growth rate of 400,000/barrel day, due to internal turmoil and budget constraints, the global supply-demand relationship became more tense and the bullish sentiment warmed up. At the end of the session, US crude oil and cloth oil rose by 3.82% and 3.52% respectively, which not only recovered the decline of the previous two days, but also set the highest price in two months.
International news: As of the closing of crude oil in June, 65438+ 10/1,US crude oil closed at 8 1.22 USD/barrel, up 2.99 USD, while Brent crude oil closed at 83.72 USD/barrel, up 2.85 USD, which is quite strong.
Domestic market: yesterday, the price of refined oil was quoted, and the average price continued to show a state of strong gasoline and weak diesel. Kenli Petrochemical Company, 92 # gasoline was 7630 yuan/ton, up by 30 yuan,-10 # diesel was 6770 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan, and started petrochemical company, 92 # gasoline was 7820 yuan/ton, up by 40 yuan, and 95 # gasoline was 7920 yuan/ton. HSBC Petrochemical, 92 # gasoline is 7830 yuan/ton, 95 # gasoline is 7960 yuan/ton, 0 # diesel is 6950 yuan/ton, and-10 # diesel is 7000 yuan/ton for reference.
The oil price may rise on Monday, and it will reach a new peak in this cycle within 3 or 2 days. The price statistics of 10 working day have been completed, and the final result will be awaited next week. At present, the oil price is expected to increase by 3 10 yuan/ton. In terms of liters, it is estimated that oil prices will rise by 0.24 yuan/liter -0.28 yuan/liter. The first oil price adjustment in 2022 will be carried out the next day. After the international oil price rose by more than 5% last week, it continued to rise this week. This makes the expected growth of this statistical cycle continue to rise. So far, the expected increase is close to 3 crude oil per liter. Now we are waiting for the final result. It can be said that oil prices will rise sharply next Monday night.
According to current expectations, oil prices will rise sharply next week, and by 2022, oil prices will rise by more than 300 yuan/ton, especially as the Spring Festival approaches. Oil prices will rise by more than 3 gross/liter. Tell their relatives and friends that oil prices will rise sharply in two days. The oil price will be completed at 24:00 on June 65438+1October 65438+July 7 two days later. 10 working day this round of oil price statistics has ended, and we will wait for the final result next week. At present, the oil price is expected to increase by 3 10 yuan/ton. In terms of liters, it is estimated that oil prices will rise by 0.24 yuan/liter -0.28 yuan/liter. There are a little more than two days before the oil price adjustment next Monday night. According to the current statistics, the sharp rise in oil prices is almost certain.
However, you should also note that the current international oil price continues to rise, which may make it more likely that it will eventually rise next week. In 2022, the oil price was adjusted for the first time, and the oil price rose sharply. Motorists who have no oil in these two days can prepare for refueling in advance. After all, the oil price has gone up a lot this time. In the current set of statistics, the oil price has risen steadily, but it has not fallen, and now it has reached a new high since the current set of statistics. It is estimated that the increase has exceeded 2 crude oil/liter. Last time the oil price was adjusted, the oil price only rose by 0. 1 1 yuan/liter -0. 14 yuan/liter. Coupled with the expectation of rising oil prices. Then, the oil price is expected to rise by 0.35 yuan/liter -0.42 yuan/liter years ago. It can be said that oil prices have risen sharply a few years ago. The international oil price and crude oil price of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have both increased. The New York Mercantile Exchange light sweet crude oil futures price in February 2022 rose by 0.76 USD to 82.88 USD per barrel, with an increase of 0.93%. Brent crude oil futures for delivery in March 2022 rose 0.86 USD, or 65,438+0.02%, and traded at 85.33 USD per barrel.
Oil is about to rise for the fourth consecutive week, and the outlook is still bullish due to limited supply and strong demand. But a hedge fund manager is even more optimistic. Last year, it achieved a record return, with an annual profit of 74% in 202 1 and broke the previous record of 59% in 20 14-another oil boom year before the Great Depression. But now, oil prices are expected to rise further, saying that it may even reach $200 a barrel in the next five years. I think that the structural supply-side commodity inflation that most people will not see is the highest level since the 1970s. In an interview, Jin said, "They keep a low profile every month only if they respond to the price index.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its OPEC+partners have been working hard to produce the agreed quantity according to the production control agreement, in order to cope with the damage caused by the epidemic in 2020 to the oil market. In this huge cartel, only a few members have the ability to increase production according to the quota, while others find it difficult, which makes people worry about the oil supply in the case of strong demand in the future.
It is reported that China's crude oil imports decreased by 5.4% at an annual rate last year, which is the first time in 20 years. The reason for the decline is to promote the reduction of fuel oversupply, but independent refiners have taken various measures to curb their oil demand. Although crude oil imports decreased overall last year, imports from sanctioned Venezuela and Iran actually increased. These exports increased by 53%, and the total crude oil of Venezuela and Iran reached 324 million barrels, the highest since 20 18. China's total oil import in 20021year was 512.98 million tons, about10.3 million barrels per day. This is down from the previous year's 542.39 million tons, when refineries in China were consuming as much cheap oil as possible.
Since 20 15 China began to allocate import quotas to private refiners, China has been the largest oil importer in the world for seven consecutive years. Since then, it has accounted for 44% of the global oil import growth and has become the main factor of oil price changes. In the same period, the average annual growth rate of China's import rate reached 10%. China's dominant position in the oil market makes it vulnerable to any influence from China. Now, the potential of this influence is considerable. The growing debt bubble and economic slowdown have brought double dangers to China's economy and will have a direct and potentially serious impact on the entire global oil market.