Of course, I am not qualified to talk about the stock market, futures market and financial market here. In these huge markets, I am really an inexperienced and insignificant rookie. If we have a little experience, at most, it is just some failed and unsuccessful lessons, and these lessons have not been sorted into effective operational guiding rules for ourselves. Of course, it is even more impossible to say anything that can be instructive to others here.
However, even a novice has the right to express some immature views and experiences, which is a summary and learning method for himself and a reminder for others.
In fact, up to now, my only biggest experience is that the most important thing in the financial market is not the seemingly extremely important big money, inside information, strong team, or even a good tool that many people expect to have (such as a computer with very fast response). I think the most important thing is people's mentality, and the most important thing to adjust is people's psychological construction.
Yes, this is the real sun. Without a strong psychological construction and a big enough mind, it is difficult to make great achievements in the financial market, let alone make as much money as possible.
Recently, I have read several biographies of masters, and almost every master has repeatedly experienced big profits and big losses. When they earn huge wealth, they can spend money like water, open luxury cruise ships and enjoy luxury holidays. When they suffered huge losses, they even shouldered huge debts, causing hundreds of creditors to disturb their lives. They really felt bullied by dogs and felt that the plucked phoenix was not as good as a chicken.
However, these masters can always try their best to rise again after huge losses, and have more and greater wealth again, which makes those who are eager to step on one foot in trouble regret it, and at the same time makes those who always believe in themselves and support themselves get good returns. More importantly, they can usually get back to the top.
My feeling is that if these people don't have a strong heart and an invincible heart, they are likely to be devastated after the first huge loss.
Of course, the lives of these masters are far from those of us ordinary people. The ups and downs they experienced can only be amazing stories for us, which can only make us admire and even feel ashamed. But what they summarized about psychological construction is really worth chewing and pondering by ordinary people.
One is loss aversion, that is, there is a strong preference to avoid losses. In other words, not losing money is far more important than making money. To put it another way, losing money and earning 100 yuan have different psychological effects on people, and losing money is obviously more uncomfortable.
The second is the sunk cost effect, that is, paying more attention to the money already spent, rather than the money that may be spent in the future. I remember someone once cited a case. After spending money on movie tickets, even if the movie sucks, most people will still insist on watching it because they have already spent money. In fact, this is a typical sunk cost effect, and you lose time for the money you have already spent.
In the investment market, it corresponds to those who have seen that the market is poor or even started to lose money. They still stick to their original mission and still expect the market to pick up. Of course, there is both loss aversion and sunk cost effect.
Third, disposition effect, that is, cash in profits as soon as possible, but let the losses continue. In fact, many financial managers are just doing this kind of publicity. The main reason why many people don't make money in the fund investment market is that they don't make profits in time.
However, they seem to have only said half. What should those loss-making funds do? Continue to play dead, wait for the rise, or respond and expand into new areas?
The fourth is the result preference, that is, the quality of a decision will only be judged according to its result, and the quality of the decision itself will not be considered.
This influence has something to do with our social prejudice at present and all along. Since ancient times, we have emphasized that heroes should not be judged by success or failure. However, in most cases, we are just practicing the result orientation. Even many times, you will hear very irritating conversations. Even if you say a lot, the other person's "what's the result" will knock down all your arguments and immediately make you speechless.
Speaking of which, I suddenly remembered a scene in the series "Bright Sword". Li Yunlong is studying in National Defense University. I didn't expect the teacher in the class to be a national army officer captured by him, so these bosses began to make fun of the teacher mercilessly. Of course, I respect these bosses, but only from this point, they obviously made a result-oriented mistake. Although the final victory belongs to us, it does not mean that the decision of the national generals is wrong.
The fifth is the recent preference, that is, paying more attention to recent data or experience and ignoring early data or experience.
As the saying goes, "If something goes wrong at the beginning of the year, you will be busy for a year, and if something goes wrong at the end of the year, you will be busy for a year." This sentence is usually to emphasize the importance of safety. But in fact, the problems at the beginning of the year are really different from those at the end of the year. Once there is a problem at the beginning of the year, this unit usually expects other units to take a bubble, because the superior will immediately focus on the unit that has recently had a problem, and then forget the unit that has also made mistakes.
Well, it seems that we are all caught up in our recent preferences and don't know it.
The sixth is the anchoring effect, that is, relying too much on (or anchoring) the information that is easy to obtain in the near future.
In business, it is usually said that current commodities are always valued with reference to a high point or a low point. In the investment market, people are used to staring at a recent price and making decisions based on the relationship between the current price and this reference price.
Seventh, the trend effect, that is, just because many other people believe in one thing, they blindly believe it.
To put it another way, it may be more clear that it is the so-called herd effect, that is, following the crowd will not cause big problems.
Scientists have interpreted this effect, but although we already know it, many times this effect will really make our choices more correct. For example, at the railway station, if you don't know where the exit is, the easiest way is to follow the crowd and you won't make any mistakes.
So, when should we avoid this trend effect and when can we follow it?
Eight is the law of decimals, that is, drawing unfounded conclusions from too little information.
Statistically speaking, people all know that we need to find rules from a large number of data and then make more scientific decisions. But in the investment market, people can often draw the conclusion that which professional manager is better from several events.
For example, when we choose to buy a fund, we usually choose the fund with the best performance last year. At most, it looks a little farther, that is, three years, and few people look much. Of course, there are objective factors. If you can't find the same fund and manager for five years or even longer, I have to say it's quite embarrassing.
Whether living or investing, there is nothing new under the sun. If we can solve the above eight mistakes, we can at least lose less. In the investment market, the first thing to ensure is to lose as little as possible, or to put it more clearly, to lose more and earn more, no matter how many times, the most important thing is that the money lost is less than the money earned, so that the investment is valuable.