This chapter introduces several long-term trend tracking systems, and selects 27 commodities in the American futures market to test the historical performance of these tracking systems in ten years.
These turtle trading systems are suitable for long-term trends. they are
I'm a little confused by the specious results of historical tests. I hope I can understand them in the next chapter.
In particular, Tang Qi 'an's timing trend system, although a simple and somewhat rude system, actually performed very well in the test.
In addition, there are two issues that need attention:
When we borrow computer calculus, we sometimes find a seemingly effective method, but when we use it in practice, it fails miserably. Why? It is because of "over-optimization". The author will talk about it in detail in the next chapter.
In most fields, there are very few real experts, and every real expert is submerged in a large number of fake experts.
These fake experts occupy a place in the industry and fool laymen with patchwork knowledge.
False experts have an obvious sign that their articles are obscure. They can't write clearly because they don't understand the mystery themselves. They just create some strict rules like experts.
Another common feature of counterfeiting experts is that they know how to use complex procedures and techniques and are well trained, but they don't know the limitations of these techniques.
A real expert, he can explain complex concepts easily, they are not static, they have answers, and there is no need for rigid rules.