Money is the measure of commodity value. Commodity value increases, currency depreciates relatively, commodity value decreases, and currency appreciates relatively. As a global currency, the exchange rate of US dollar reflects the value of global commodity trade to some extent. At present, global commodity transactions are mainly denominated in US dollars, which accounts for about 65% of global foreign exchange reserves. The trend of US dollar exchange rate has an important influence on commodity trading market, futures market and the redistribution pattern of economic interests of various countries. Crude oil, gold, metals and other commodities are greatly affected by the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate.

1. dollar exchange rate and crude oil price

The relationship between crude oil and the dollar is different from that between gold and the dollar. The price of gold is influenced by the exchange rate of the US dollar. Crude oil price and dollar price are interactive. When the price of crude oil rises, the world economy will be affected, including the United States, the world's largest consumer of crude oil. Inflationary pressure brought by rising crude oil prices will bring depreciation pressure to the dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the dollar is that the price of crude oil denominated in dollars will also increase. Of course, on the other hand, falling oil prices are a good signal for the economy. People's confidence in the American economy will push up the exchange rate of the US dollar, which will lead to a further downward adjustment of oil prices. It is estimated that the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate is -0.7. In other words, high oil prices often appear at the same time as a weak dollar. So the trend of the dollar and the original oil price are also in the opposite direction.

2. Federal Reserve interest rate and crude oil

In order to explore the relationship between crude oil and the interest rate of the Federal Reserve, the IS-LM model links the product market with the money market (please understand the model separately, and omit 10,000 words here). The statistical data of crude oil price and interest rate (daily frequency) on August 6 to May120 14, 20 15, the correlation coefficient is -0.7 1, and they are negatively correlated. There is no interest income from investing in crude oil, and its return on investment depends entirely on the price increase. But if you hold cash in the bank, you can get interest income, so interest is the opportunity cost of investing in crude oil. In other words, the interest rate rises, the interest income increases, and the opportunity cost of investing in crude oil rises. People tend to hold cash at this time, so oil prices will be under pressure. On the contrary, oil prices will rise. Therefore, in the second half of the year, the Fed raised interest rates and oil prices were under pressure.