The first "four-game losing streak" since 20 19.
After the new round of price adjustment, domestic refined oil prices will usher in the first "four-day losing streak" in the year. At the same time, this is the first "four-day losing streak" of domestic oil prices since 20 19.
In the new price adjustment cycle, the converted 92 # gasoline, 95 # gasoline and 0 # diesel oil are reduced by 0. 10 yuan, 0.1yuan and 0.1yuan respectively. Take an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example. After this price reduction, it will cost the owner less to fill a box of 92 # gasoline.
After the "four consecutive declines", the prices of gasoline and diesel oil decreased by 1.0 1.00 yuan and 1.070 yuan respectively compared with the middle and late June. After conversion, the prices of No.92 gasoline, No.95 gasoline and No.0 diesel oil decreased by 0.88, 0.93 and 0.92 yuan respectively. Compared with the middle and late June, ordinary private car owners with a fuel tank capacity of 50L will spend less 44 yuan when they fill up a box of No.92 gasoline.
The data shows that 14 rounds of price adjustment have been carried out this year, showing a situation of "ten ups and four downs". The previous three downward adjustments were in the seventh round of this year (at 24: 00 on April 15), and the price of gasoline and diesel was lowered by 545 yuan and 530 yuan per ton respectively; 12 (at 24: 00 on June 28th), the price of gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 320 yuan and 3 10 yuan per ton respectively; 13 round (at 24: 00 on July 12) price adjustment, and the prices of gasoline and diesel were lowered by 360 yuan and 345 yuan respectively; As well as the last round of price adjustment, the price of gasoline and diesel was lowered in 300 yuan and 290 yuan respectively per ton.
Domestic oil prices may "fall for five consecutive days"
The Price Monitoring Center of the Development and Reform Commission pointed out that during this price adjustment period (July 26th-August 8th), the pessimistic expectation of economic recession and the decline of crude oil demand dominated the downward trend of oil prices.
Oil prices in Brent, London and WTI, New York fell to their lowest levels since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February this year. Oil prices in the two cities decreased by 3.44% on average compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.
On August 8th, the international crude oil price rebounded slightly-the electronic price of US WTI9 crude oil futures in September closed up 1.75 USD, or 1.97%, to 90.76 USD/barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed up 1.73 USD in October, up 1.82% to 96.65 USD/barrel.
However, Zheng Mingya, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, pointed out that before there is a new driving force, such as the continuous decline in demand or the increase in supply side, the probability of crude oil price shocks is greater.
"Before the new round of price adjustment window is opened, the rate of change of crude oil may continue to run in the negative range, and the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products is more likely," Zheng predicted.
Guotai Junan research report also pointed out that in August, oil prices may still maintain a weak trend. But the logic of tight energy has not changed, that is, if it is not a serious economic recession, the price center of crude oil will remain above $90/barrel in 2023.
The reason for the long-term rise in oil prices is still good.
In a report released last Sunday, Goldman Sachs said that the recent decline in Brent crude oil prices was due to low liquidity and many concerns surrounding the economic recession, the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States and the resumption of production in Russia.
However, the report pointed out that "even assuming that all these negative factors are at work, the reason for the rise in oil prices is still very strong, because the degree of market supply shortage in recent months still exceeds our expectations."
AmritaSen, research director of EnergyAspects, an energy consultancy, also said that the current supply dilemma in the energy market is not over, and she insisted that the problem facing the international oil market is not demand, but supply.
Last week, OPEC+only agreed to slightly increase crude oil production. Since September, the daily output has increased by 654.38 million barrels, which is obviously lower than the market's generally expected increase of 300,000-400,000 barrels per day.
Recently, the Iranian nuclear talks will be restarted again, and Pan Xiang, a researcher in the Nenghua Group of Huatai Futures Research Institute, believes that it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of this situation.
"After the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made it clear that it would not significantly increase production, Europe and the United States had more frequent contacts with Iran. Iran is one of the few countries that can greatly increase production in a short time. If sanctions are lifted in the future, the impact on the oil market will be more significant. On the one hand, its export has the potential to increase by 65,438+0.5 to 2 million barrels per day. On the other hand, according to statistics of relevant institutions, Iran still has 50 million barrels of floating warehouses on land and at sea. Therefore, once Iranian oil enters the circulation basin, it will have a greater impact on the short-term spot market and can significantly alleviate the supply gap caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "
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