The egg production rate will drop or fluctuate slightly in summer, so the egg market supply will decrease steadily. In terms of consumption, affected by the stimulus policies implemented in various places, egg consumption will also be effectively boosted, and it is expected that egg prices may continue to rise after autumn. Judging from the regional distribution of egg production, most of the egg production in China is concentrated in the north of the Yangtze River, and the egg production in Shandong, Henan and Hebei provinces exceeds one-third of the national total. In 20 18, Shandong's egg production has reached 4.47 million tons, ranking first in the country; The output of poultry eggs in Henan also reached 4 136 10000 tons, and that in Hebei reached 3.78 million tons, ranking second and third respectively in the country.
It is predicted that in the next few years, China will still rank first in the world, showing a steady growth trend, with a growth rate of 0.5- 1.0%. If calculated by 0.8%, by 2024, the production scale of poultry eggs in China will reach 328 1 10,000 tons. COFCO Futures feels that the supply of eggs has bottomed out due to the recent decrease in the number of newly added layers and the peak of phased elimination. Subsequently, the third-party organizations Boya and Zhuochuang's June laying hen inventory reports all gave data guidance for the month-on-month decline. With the expected dominance and the reduction of laying rate in summer, the contract of eggs in recent months has bottomed out in the past two weeks, and the price structure has also shown a seesaw market that is stronger in recent months than in distant months.
The future egg price trend still depends on the effect of reducing the production capacity of laying hens, while paying attention to the recovery of consumption in the second half of the year, including the holiday effects of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. It is expected that the price of eggs may continue to rise after autumn.