As the third largest natural gas producer and the second largest oil producer in the world, Russia plays an important role in the global energy supply system. Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, stimulated by geopolitical risks and market concerns, world energy prices have risen sharply. With the continuation of the conflict and the escalation of western and Russian sanctions and anti-sanctions, the global energy market and energy pattern will undergo profound changes.
1. In the short term, global energy prices will remain at a high level.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe have stimulated the sharp rise in international energy prices and deepened the concerns of countries about energy security.
Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, oil prices had risen sharply. With the rebound of the global economy, oil demand has grown strongly. However, the lack of investment caused by the epidemic and the large-scale production reduction of OPEC+have made the world oil supply weak. The contradiction between supply and demand in the global oil market led to a rapid rise in oil prices last year. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravated the upward trend of oil prices. Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has announced a ban on the import of Russian oil, natural gas and other energy products; Due to its energy dependence on Russia, the EU has adopted a conservative attitude towards sanctions against Russia in the energy field. However, the EU's willingness to expand economic penalties is on the rise.
In order to curb the oil price, the member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) took collective actions twice in a row, releasing a total of 654.38+0.2 billion barrels of oil from their emergency reserves, and the oil price once fell back. However, the uncertainty of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will make oil prices climb again at any time. For European countries, China, Japan and other major oil importers in the world, rising oil prices will bring great pressure to their economies and drag down their growth.
Affected by conflicts and sanctions, the natural gas and coal markets are also in a state of continuous tension and fluctuation. The price of natural gas has been rising this year. Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, the price of natural gas in Europe and parts of Asia had risen sharply. After the conflict broke out, the European natural gas price vane-TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price soared to nearly 330 euros/megawatt.
Russia is a major supplier of natural gas in Europe. In order to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas, European countries are seeking to increase the procurement of liquefied natural gas from other regions. Due to the strong demand in Europe, the global LNG export volume has almost reached the limit. On April 19, the US LNG futures price reached a high of $7.82 per million British thermal units, the highest level since September 2008. Although the price of LNG in the American market is much lower than that in Europe and Asia, its discount rate relative to the European and Asian markets has been shrinking.
Secondly, Russia's energy supply and demand system will suffer a major impact.
Affected by conflicts and western sanctions, Russia's energy exports may face a situation of oversupply in the future. Many transportation companies refuse to transport Russian crude oil, which greatly increases the transportation cost of Russian oil. Geopolitical factors have also promoted the large-scale withdrawal of international capital from Russian energy industry. With the withdrawal of international energy giants such as Statoil, Shell, BP and ExxonMobil from the Russian market, the space for Russian energy trade will be further narrowed. At present, about 60% of Russian oil is exported to Europe and another 20% to China. Russia is also an important oil supplier to most former Soviet countries, including Ukraine. The International Energy Agency predicts that Russia's oil supply will further decline due to sanctions imposed by the United States and some of its allies. Since April, Russia has stopped production of about 700,000 barrels of crude oil every day; From May, nearly 3 million barrels of oil may be shut down every day.
Third, the EU will accelerate the diversification of energy import sources.
In 20021year, Russia provided about 45% of the total natural gas imports of the EU, and all the gas pipelines led to EU countries via Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in order to ensure the energy security in Europe, the EU has tried to find sources of energy supply outside Russia. The International Energy Agency issued the 10 plan for the EU to get rid of its dependence on Russian energy, including stopping signing new natural gas supply contracts with Russia, replacing Russian supply with natural gas from alternative sources, accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, and increasing the power generation of bioenergy and nuclear power plants. On March 8, 2022, the EU also submitted a report. According to the plan, the EU will gradually get rid of its dependence on Russian fossil fuels through "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure". First, increase the import of liquefied and pipeline natural gas from suppliers outside Russia, while increasing the import of biomethane and renewable hydrogen; The second is to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the development of renewable energy and electrification. In terms of natural gas imports, the EU has increased cooperation with partners such as the United States, Norway, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Egypt, South Korea, Japan, Nigeria, Turkey and Israel. Italy signed an agreement with Algeria to increase the supply of natural gas. It is estimated that between 2023 and 2024, Algeria's natural gas supply to Italy will reach 9 billion cubic meters per year, which is about 1/3 of Italy's imports from Russia. The EU also plans to actively carry out cross-border natural gas cooperation with Central Asian and Caspian countries, and has built trans-Anatolian pipeline projects and trans-Adriatic pipeline projects respectively to reduce the transit dependence on Russian pipeline natural gas.
Four, the United States is expected to become the world's leading supplier of liquefied natural gas.
If Europe reduces its imports of natural gas from Russia, one of the biggest beneficiaries will be the United States. European leaders promised to substantially increase the purchase of liquefied natural gas from the United States in the next decade or so. In 20021year, the United States and others supplied 22 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe. According to the recently signed natural gas supply agreement between the United States and the European Union, in 2022, the United States will cooperate with international partners to ensure that the EU market will obtain at least 654.38+05 billion cubic meters of LNG on the basis of 202 1. This means that US natural gas exports to Europe will increase by 2/3. The agreement also mentioned that the United States fully supports the REPowerEU plan of the European Union and realizes the EU's goal of importing 50 billion cubic meters of LNG every year by 2030. It can be predicted that in the future, the EU's dependence on American LNG will be greatly strengthened, and the competition between European buyers and buyers in Asia and other regions for the limited global LNG supply will also intensify.
The global deployment of renewable energy will accelerate.
In the medium and long term, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will accelerate the pace of energy substitution and energy transformation. The instability of the oil and gas market has made countries such as the European Union and Asia aware of the urgency of finding alternative energy sources, and the political will of countries to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources has been significantly enhanced. In the future, the policy design and funds of various countries may increase the inclination to renewable energy. First, the deployment of solar energy, wind energy and heat pumps is expected to increase. According to the EU "Fit for55" energy and climate package released in July 20021,the proportion of renewable energy in the EU will reach 40% by 2030. The European Commission predicts that if the annual power generation of rooftop solar photovoltaic system increases by 1.5 TWh in 2022, an additional 2.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas can be saved. Germany's Renewable Energy Act (EEG) stipulates that by 2030, Germany's renewable energy will account for 80% of electricity demand, and by 2035 it will reach 100%. Germany also plans to install 6 million heat pumps to heat buildings with electricity instead of natural gas. Second, the development of nuclear energy may accelerate. At the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) held at the end of 20021,most economies were optimistic about the development of nuclear energy, and all parties promised to enhance the role of nuclear energy in the transformation of clean energy. IEA predicts that by 2050, 90% of power generation will come from renewable energy, of which wind and light energy will account for nearly 70%, and most of the rest will be provided by nuclear energy. At present, there is a heated debate within the EU on whether nuclear energy should be classified as green energy. The energy crisis that broke out at the end of 20021and the energy security challenge brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this year may slow down the pace of eliminating nuclear energy in Germany. Third, global attention will be paid to low-carbon technologies such as battery energy storage system, offshore wind energy, low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. The role of energy storage in the policy framework of many countries will become clearer.