_ Supply and demand factors
Supply and demand are the fundamental factors that determine the price of wheat. Generally speaking, wheat is mainly used for food, and its total demand is basically stable, and the influence of demand factors on wheat price is slow; Changes in supply will cause rapid changes in wheat prices.
Supply side. It mainly consists of three parts: pre-inventory, current production and commodity import.
1, pre-inventory
It is an important part of the total output. The amount of pre-inventory reflects the tension of supply, the price rising in short supply, and the price abundant in short supply.
2. Flow process
At present, the output is mainly affected by planting area and output per unit area. The main factors affecting the planting area are the comparison between farmers and other agricultural products, expected annualized income, national agricultural policies and other factors, and the main factors affecting the output per unit area are weather and scientific and technological level. We must analyze and study the changes of wheat planting area, climate and crop production conditions, production costs and government agricultural policies.
3. Commodity imports
The actual import volume of commodities often changes for political or economic reasons. Therefore, we should know and master the changes of international situation, price level, import policy and import volume as soon as possible.
Demand side. It is mainly composed of domestic consumption, export volume and excellent commodities.
_ Specific factors
1, weather, pests and diseases
Climate has a great influence on the price of wheat. Wheat needs a suitable growing environment during planting and growing period. If abnormal weather occurs, it will adversely affect the yield and quality of wheat, have a significant impact on the price of wheat, and often form a "weather market" in wheat trading.
Diseases and insect pests will also affect the normal growth and development of wheat, leading to wheat yield reduction and even no grain harvest.
2. Sowing area and yield
The sown area of wheat is the basic determinant of yield. It can be said that the planting area of wheat and the weather during planting directly determine the yield and quality of strong wheat, which has become an important theme of futures price speculation. Output per unit area will also affect output, thus affecting supply, and then affecting prices.
3. Wheat quality and warehouse receipt quantity
The quality of wheat, whether it can meet the delivery standard, the number of declared warehousing and the number of registered warehouse receipts near the delivery month have certain influence on the wheat futures market.
4. National policies
The wheat problem is related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The government often introduces macro-control policies for wheat to stabilize grain production, ensure grain supply and prevent inflation. Import and export and tax policies are also important factors affecting wheat prices.
5. International market linkage
Zhengzhou wheat futures price is published regularly by Reuters, and has been incorporated into the world wheat quotation system. The influence of world wheat production and stock on China wheat price can not be ignored, and the fluctuation of wheat price in China domestic market and international market gradually shows a linkage oscillation trend.
The price of strong wheat is more easily influenced by imported wheat and is more closely related to the international wheat price.
6. Periodicity and seasonality of wheat production
Agricultural production is cyclical, and the period from sowing to harvesting of wheat is as long as 8 months. This relatively fixed cycle limits the scalability of production scale.
The price of wheat shows obvious seasonal fluctuation law. Generally speaking, July is the peak season of wheat supply and the lowest price after the winter wheat is listed every year. Since September, wheat consumption has entered the peak season, and the spot price has risen steadily. Around the Spring Festival, wheat consumption reached its peak, and the price of wheat also reached its peak in the year.
7. Transportation
The spot prices of wheat in Canada, the United States and Australia are all formed by futures prices and basis. Therefore, for imported wheat, once the import contract is signed, the shipment time and freight are uncertain factors that affect the CIF price.
8. Market speculation and psychological factors.
The futures market is a capital market. With the development of the market, it shows stronger and stronger financial attributes. Since 2007, the influence of liquidity and market speculation on the price of strong wheat has become more and more obvious. For example, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States not only affects the stock market, but also has a great impact on the commodity futures market.
9. Other factors
The substitution of related products (such as wheat and corn), the expansion of other uses of wheat, the purchasing power of consumers, consumption preferences and demographic changes will all affect the demand for wheat; Planting habits, production input and popularization will also affect wheat supply.
Changes in the overall macroeconomic situation, inflation and other commodity prices (including changes in stocks and gold, etc.). ) and emergencies will have a certain impact on the trend of wheat prices.