With the contraction of market supply, the elasticity of price to demand has greatly increased. The price cycle of this round of glyphosate is much stronger than 20 18, even stronger than 20 13. Based on this, we judge that it is a high probability event that the price of glyphosate rises to 50,000 yuan/ton and above. In addition, due to the limited expansion of glyphosate supply, we believe that the long-term price system of glyphosate will be reshaped, and it may be difficult to fall back to the price level below 30,000 yuan/ton. In the past five years (20 16-2020), the price center will be 23,000 yuan/ton, or it will become history.

The price of glyphosate broke through the high point of 20 13, and corporate profits improved rapidly. Since 20 10, the highest price of glyphosate has appeared at 20 13, which is 45,000 yuan/ton. By last week, the price had reached 46,500 yuan, up more than 1 10% compared with the same period of last year, and the profit per ton had reached12,500 yuan/ton, achieving a breakthrough. We believe that the main driving factors are: the impact of epidemic situation, tight overseas production, low inventory and spot shortage; Farmers' enthusiasm for planting has increased, and the market demand is strong; Upstream raw material prices have risen and costs have risen.