Supply and demand are the most fundamental factors affecting the futures price of natural rubber. At present, the main natural rubber producers in the world are Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Viet Nam and India. Due to the large amount of rubber used in China and India, the absolute output of Viet Nam cannot be compared with the above three. Therefore, the main exporters of natural rubber are Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. In 2002, the three countries established the Regional Sales Alliance of Natural Rubber (ITRCo) and implemented unified measures to limit production and protect prices (the reserve price is 80 cents/kg). However, since the second half of 2002, the price of natural rubber has shown a strong upward trend. There are signs that some countries in the regional sales alliance of natural rubber cannot effectively implement measures to reduce the output of natural rubber due to the rising price of natural rubber. Therefore, it is worth observing the implementation of natural rubber regional sales alliance's measures to limit production and protect price. If the price falls near the price limit, the three-nation alliance can only have a substantial impact on the supply of natural rubber in the world, thus affecting the price of natural rubber. The countries and regions with the largest consumption of natural rubber in the world are the United States, China, Western Europe and Japan. Among them, China's own natural rubber production can meet about one-third of domestic consumption, and the rest needs to be imported, while the United States, Western Europe and Japan rely entirely on imports. Obviously, the relationship between supply and demand of natural rubber among the above three major exporting countries and three semi-major importing countries and regions plays the most basic and key role in the price of natural rubber. While paying attention to the growth of major natural rubber producing countries in the world, we should also pay attention to the development trend of natural rubber planting and production in Vietnam, India, Sri Lanka and other countries. Especially in Vietnam, since the new century, the Vietnamese government has announced that it will expand the planting area of natural rubber and take measures such as encouraging exports to increase the sales of natural rubber. It is estimated that the planting area of natural rubber in Vietnam will increase to 500,000 hectares in 2005 and 700,000 hectares in 2065,438+00, and the output will increase to 500,000 tons and 6,543,800 tons respectively. Vietnam is becoming a new force that cannot be ignored in the world natural rubber market.

(2) Supply and demand of natural rubber in China and the influence of China's entry into WTO.

Natural rubber in China has been in short supply. Therefore, before the import of natural rubber is completely liberalized, the domestic supply of natural rubber has a certain impact on the price of natural rubber in China.

However, after China's entry into WTO, how the government fulfills its WTO commitments and adjusts its import and export policies has become an important factor affecting the import of natural rubber in China and even the fluctuation of natural rubber prices. China implements the management of "two certificates" for the import of natural rubber. The specific contents are as follows: Imported natural rubber includes processing part (zero tariff, 1999 10 10/0) and double-limit part (current limit and use limit, 1 998). The processing part and the double-limit part are called tax reduction and exemption parts. In these two ways, the customs tracked the imported natural rubber and supervised its flow direction and use. Only the general trade part can enter the circulation market and participate in the delivery of the futures market. From June 5438+1 October1in 2000, the state formally established the project of "tax rate within quota" for imported natural rubber, and this tax rate was paid in full. Since 2002, the tariff rate within the quota is 20%, the tariff rate outside the quota is 25%, and the general tariff rate within the license is 40%. Since 2004, the state has cancelled the quota management of natural rubber. With the gradual realization of China's WTO commitments, the state may adjust the above provisions.

Another factor that cannot be ignored is the influence of smuggling natural rubber. In recent years, the amount of natural rubber exported by Vietnam to China is on the rise, and the export amount announced by Vietnam to China is quite different from the import amount announced by China Customs. The reason is that some natural rubber enters the Chinese market through smuggling, which will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the market price of natural rubber in China.

(3) International and domestic economic environment

As an important industrial raw material, the price fluctuation of natural rubber is closely related to the international and domestic economic environment. When the economic environment is improving, the market needs to develop and the demand is sufficient, at this time, the demand for natural rubber will increase, thus pushing its price up; On the contrary, when the economic environment deteriorates, the market is pessimistic and the demand is insufficient, the demand for natural rubber will decrease at this time, leading to its decline. 1997 the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, which led to a sharp drop in rubber prices, is a proof. Therefore, the international and domestic economic environment will affect the long-term trend of natural rubber prices.

(IV) Development of main rubber industry

The largest consumption of natural rubber is the automobile industry (accounting for about 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber), and the development of the automobile industry has promoted the progress of tire manufacturing. Therefore, the development of automobile industry and related tire industry will affect the price of natural rubber. Especially the automobile industry, its development is directly related to the output of tires, thus affecting the global demand and price of natural rubber. After the automobile industry in Europe, America, Japan and other countries has entered a relatively stable development, the demand for natural rubber is also relatively stable. Comparatively speaking, China's automobile industry has just started, and there is a lot of room for future development. Therefore, the domestic natural rubber price will be affected by the development of automobile industry and tire industry.

(5) Production and application of synthetic rubber

With the continuous progress of technology, the selection of raw materials for rubber products has also changed, and many products have replaced natural rubber with synthetic rubber. With the continuous development of synthetic rubber industry, its price is more and more competitive. When the supply of natural rubber is tight or the price rises, many manufacturers will choose to use synthetic rubber, and their complementarity will become stronger and stronger.

At the same time, because synthetic rubber belongs to petrochemical products, its price is naturally affected by its upstream product-oil. In fact, oil prices have been fluctuating, so the fluctuation of oil prices will also affect the price of natural rubber by affecting the price of synthetic rubber.

(6) Natural factors

The growth of natural rubber trees needs certain geographical and climatic conditions. Rubber trees that are generally suitable for tapping are 5-7 years old. Therefore, the number of natural rubber trees that can be used for rubber tapping cannot be changed in a short time. The main factors affecting the output of natural rubber are: 1 and seasonal factors. Entering the cutting season, rubber prices fell; Entering the tapping season, the price of rubber rises. 2. Climate factors. Typhoon or tropical storm, continuous rainy days, drought and frost will reduce the output of natural rubber and increase the price of rubber. 3. Pests and diseases. Such as powdery mildew, red root disease and anthracnose. , will affect the growth of natural rubber trees, and even lead to death, which has a great impact on the output and price of natural rubber.

(VII) Factors of exchange rate changes

In recent years, due to global economic instability and frequent exchange rate changes, the price of natural rubber, especially the import and export business, has had a certain impact. Therefore, when paying attention to the natural rubber market in the international market, we must pay attention to the exchange rate changes of various countries, especially the exchange rate changes of the three major rubber producing countries and the Japanese yen against the US dollar. According to some data, through correlation analysis, there is a certain correlation between the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar and the price of TOCOM natural rubber. Therefore, the change of the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar will have a corresponding impact on the cost of imported natural rubber, thus causing changes in domestic rubber prices.

(viii) Political factors

Political factors include not only the policy influence of governments on the import and export of natural rubber, but also international emergencies and major events that have occurred and will occur, such as catastrophic events and possible war factors. Political factors often lead to sharp fluctuations in the price of natural rubber in a short period of time when relevant news comes out, and affect its price trend for a long time.

(9) the impact of international market transactions

Natural rubber has become a mature variety in the international futures market and occupies a certain market share in the futures exchanges of Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, the trading prices of the main places for natural rubber futures trading, such as TOCOM and OME in Japan, SHFE in China, SICOM in Singapore and KLCE in Malaysia, also have different degrees of interaction.

For domestic natural rubber futures investors, when engaging in SHFE natural rubber futures trading, they should not only pay attention to the trading situation of major foreign natural rubber futures markets, but also pay attention to the quotations of domestic spot markets such as Hainan, Yunnan and Qingdao.