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Why are CSI futures stock indexes short?
For the upcoming stock index futures, most fund companies are cautious-stock index futures have obtained birth certificates, and most fund companies are cautious about participating in this business. However, for the market impact, all parties agree that stock index futures will become a catalyst to accelerate the transformation of hot spots in large and small markets. For fund products, index products and hybrid funds benefit more. ■ The enthusiasm for participating in the GEM is not as good as before the launch of the GEM. Before the launch of GEM, institutions beat gongs and drums and shouted. When stock index futures arrive, most fund companies are very cautious. In the prospectus of Baoying CSI 100 index fund being issued, it is clearly pointed out that it can properly participate in financial derivatives investment and can carry out margin financing and securities lending in accordance with relevant state regulations. However, when some companies declare products, after careful consideration, they have removed the investment chapter of stock index futures. At present, even if the fund participates in stock index futures, the function of hedging risks and preserving value will also play a leading role. There are different views on the impact of stock index futures on the market. Pan Haining, the fund manager of southern fund CSI 300, cited the data analysis of the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries and regions, and thought that it was a "high probability event" to make the relative performance of spot index (large-cap index) surpass that of small-cap index before and after the introduction of stock index futures. However, he also said that although the introduction of stock index futures and margin financing and securities lending will become catalysts for market style switching, they are not decisive factors. Whether the market style can be switched still needs to pay attention to the changes of funds, including IPO, refinancing frequency and credit data. Yuan Qing, the proposed fund manager of Dacheng CSI Dividend Index Fund, believes that the overall impact on the market is positive, and investors can pay attention to the big blue-chip sector. Because the introduction of stock index futures will not affect the valuation level itself, but it may become a catalyst for the change of market style. "At present, the valuation premium of small-cap stocks relative to heavyweights in the market is at a historical high. With the introduction of stock index futures, the value of small-cap stocks with poor performance will return, the relative income of large-cap stocks will be obvious, and the process of style conversion will be accelerated. " Yuan Qing will soon lead Dacheng CSI Dividend Index Fund, and the stocks tracked by this fund are mostly high-quality blue-chip stocks with good performance and strong dividend-paying ability, which is one of the reasons why Yuan Qing is optimistic about stock index futures. Relatively speaking, Huang Qinlai, the investment director of Minsheng Canada Bank and the proposed fund manager of Minsheng Select Fund, has a neutral view. He believes that stock index futures, as a price discovery mechanism, its function is to improve market efficiency, and its impact on the market as a whole is neutral in the long run; On the other hand, stock index futures may change the relative valuation of different sectors and eventually lead to the return of the value of low-valued sectors. ■ Index funds bear the brunt of the benefits. For index funds, especially CSI 300 Index Fund and CSI 100 Index Fund, the introduction of stock index futures not only increases the attractiveness of blue-chip stocks and index funds themselves, but also mainly plays a role in reducing the tracking error of index funds and improving investment efficiency. Pan Haining, the manager of the Southern CSI 300 Fund, believes that the investment purpose of ordinary index funds or ETF funds is to minimize the tracking error. Because of the fund's own cost, transaction impact cost, large redemption amount and other factors, the index fund can't keep up with the increase of the index, which requires the fund manager to find additional income to make up for this difference. At present, the means in the A-share market can only be realized through intraday trading, dividend distribution of constituent stocks and adjustment of constituent stocks. According to international experience, a large part of the extra income of index funds comes from "securities lending", because the stock positions of index funds are always high (more than 90%) on weekdays, which enables fund managers to use some "idle" stock positions for securities lending and obtain additional positive income. In addition, Pan Haining also believes that the introduction of stock index futures has also added a new way to the position management of index funds. In the interview, the reporter found that there are not a few people who share the same view with Pan Haining. Many market participants expect that stock index futures will further enhance the investment value of index funds. ■ The performance gap of hybrid funds will widen. In 2007, the CSRC issued the Notice on Relevant Issues Concerning Securities Investment Funds Investing in Stock Index Futures, stipulating that non-stock funds may not invest in stock index futures. According to the current margin ratio, the short-term index of the fund does not exceed about 10% of the holding market value. In addition, the value of futures contracts traded on any trading day shall not exceed 100% of the fund's net asset value. Analysts at the Good Buy Fund Research Center believe that from a regulatory point of view, investing in stock index futures for the purpose of hedging is allowed and advocated by regulators. Stock index futures, a tool, makes up for the shortcomings of existing stock funds, enabling the funds to focus on stock selection and dig deep into the value. According to the current fund types, good buy fund analysts believe that hybrid funds have the largest space to grasp stock index futures. Because the scope of stock investment agreed in the hybrid fund contract is more flexible, it pays more attention to the choice of investment opportunity and the flexible allocation of stock-debt ratio. After the introduction of stock index futures, hybrid funds have added timing weapons, which can enhance the timing effect through long or short positions. As a neutral investment tool, it means that its use depends entirely on the ability of fund managers. Judging from the operation history of existing hybrid funds, their performance is very different, which means that fund managers have great active management ability. After the use of stock index futures, this difference will be amplified. For ordinary investors, if they are eager to seize the opportunity of stock index futures, they can increase the allocation of large-cap funds and index funds such as CSI 100 and CSI 300 while maintaining the balanced allocation of large-cap funds.