The competition for the first day of the transaction is unprecedented.
In the early morning of June 5438+05, when the bond forward quotation and transaction data appeared on the screen of the national inter-bank electronic trading system, the busy figures of forward traders of major trading institutions were mapped out.
In order to grab the first bond forward transaction, after the trading system opened early at 7: 30 in the morning, the first financial institutions that joined the bond forward transaction actively quoted prices. Shortly after 9: 00, the forward trading of 13 RMB bonds was automatically completed in the electronic matching system of forward trading provided by the National Interbank Funding Trading Center.
On the whole trading day, there were * * * * transactions in bond forward 13, with a turnover of 500 million yuan, involving five trading periods, of which two-month forward 05 Treasury Bond 03 had the largest transaction amount, reaching 230 million yuan. In addition, the data from the National Inter-bank Funding Trading Center also shows that the specific content of forward transactions, bond types and the forward term structure of the day are different.
It is worth mentioning that there are many market participants, both Chinese banks and foreign banks; There are large banks, small and medium-sized banks, 1 securities companies. Compared with the buyout repo business launched a year ago, the activity of trading on the first day was significantly improved.
Among them, the fund trading room of China Bank is fortunate to be the bank with the largest number of transactions in the inter-bank market. The first five bond forward transactions of Bank of China have forward maturities of 5 days, 7 days and 1 month respectively, and the counterparties include ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial Bank.
As the largest and most active institutional investor in China's bond market, ICBC successfully completed the first bond forward transaction after reaching the first buyout repurchase transaction in the market last year, and once again established a good market image in the field of innovative business.
China Merchants Bank (Information Market Forum), Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Commercial Bank, Standard Chartered Bank Shanghai Branch and Guotai Junan Securities Company also actively participated in bond forward trading on the first day, becoming the first financial institutions to enter the RMB derivatives business. It can be said that they witnessed a new breakthrough in the development of China's bond market on the platform provided by the National Interbank Funding Trading Center.
Undoubtedly, bond forward trading will provide investors with a new profit model. Investors can create various interest rate immune combinations through the reverse interaction between forward trading and spot trading, reduce interest rate risk and obtain profits. In addition, forward trading, as a basic derivative trading tool, is conducive to cultivating the market atmosphere of bond derivatives, prompting investors to increase their understanding of the risks and functions of derivatives, thus creating conditions for the central bank to launch more complex derivatives in the future and ultimately promoting the healthy development of financial derivatives.
The introduction of bond forward trading is of great significance.
Although the pricing principle of the new variety of RMB bond forward is not very complicated, the forward price changes of bonds will be affected by different markets such as RMB spot bonds, capital borrowing and bond repurchase, which comprehensively reflects the different trading behaviors and market expectations of different traders and investors, so bond forward products will be passive to the market changes of other products.
However, zhangyan, head of the global financial market department of Bank of China, believes that with the understanding and use of this product by market members, the fluctuation of the bond forward market will in turn affect the prices of trading bonds, closed repo rate, buyout repo rate and lending rate in the spot bond market. This process happens to be a process in which China's financial market forms its own pricing mechanism, improves various product structures, and moves from immaturity to maturity. In this process, "market makers", as price makers and liquidity providers of various market products, will play a vital role. As one of the major dealers in the RMB market, Bank of China will actively participate in the market-making behavior of various financial products, especially the bond forward, and strive to provide investors and dealers with a perfect term structure product quotation, and strive to design flexible and convenient forward quotation products to truly fulfill the market responsibility of state-owned commercial banks.
Wang Tun, deputy director of the RMB fund trading room of ICBC's fund operation department, believes that the launch of bond forward trading business not only expands the variety of market transactions and improves market liquidity, but also effectively realizes the price discovery function, enabling investors to form stable expectations for future interest rate trends. At the same time, the arbitrage mechanism gradually formed through bond forward trading will play a very important role in curbing excessive speculation and preventing excessive interest rate fluctuations, which is of positive significance to the development of China's bond market.
Tang Yiting, director of the transaction department of the Asset-Liability Management Department of Agricultural Bank of China, pointed out that as far as commercial banks are concerned, the introduction of forward trading business is conducive to commercial banks actively investing in bond assets, enhancing the flexibility of bond investment, and helping commercial banks to change their interest rate risk management methods from passively accepting interest rate risks to actively hedging interest rate risks. It can be said that bond forward trading provides investors with new trading tools in asset-liability management, liquidity management and interest rate risk management, which is a major breakthrough in realizing management means.
Sun Yu, deputy general manager of the Capital Trading Department of China Merchants Bank, told the reporter that at present, there is a widespread mismatch in the maturity of assets and liabilities in commercial banks, and the yield of the spot bond market continues to hit a new low. Commercial banks with abundant funds are in the stage of asset increase, and the accumulation of long positions will inevitably lead to the increase of exposure risk. Now, bond forward trading enables commercial banks to avoid risks by holding opposite positions in the spot market and the forward market, which not only provides commercial banks with a means to lock in bond investment income, but also helps to maintain the stability of the entire financial market.
Looking forward to the future, forming a derivative product market
After a year-long rise in China's bond market, the differences among investors are gradually widening. Forward trading can provide investors with important hedging tools, thus ensuring the stable and healthy operation of the market and avoiding the recurrence of irrational decline in the first half of 2004. Judging from the timing of the launch, it should be said that forward trading is just the right time.
Of course, in the early stage of forward trading, due to the particularity of its business process, risk control and account handling, forward trading may be temporarily ignored because of the lack of internal management support system for market participants. Before the introduction of forward trading, some institutions thought that forward trading would not be very active at first. However, the excitement on the first day of trading excited the market. It can be expected that with the gradual maturity of the market environment and the improvement of the market supporting system, forward trading will eventually become an investment "sharp weapon" in the hands of market participants, just like spot trading and bond repurchase, and further promote the long-term development of the interbank derivatives market.
According to the news from Nanjing Commercial Bank, although the actual transaction volume has not been significantly enlarged on the day of the launch of bond forward trading, many investors have shown a strong desire to trade. It is understood that at present, only 59 institutions can participate in forward trading, and other institutions have not yet obtained trading qualifications due to incomplete procedures; In addition, as a brand-new trading tool, investors are still familiar with it, and it is not easy to reach an agreement on price negotiation.
Li Hao, manager of the research department of the Bank's fund operation center, believes that in the short term, forward trading provides a "risk-free" arbitrage opportunity. Especially in the early stage of business development, it is difficult for investors to reach a higher level of pricing power. Through the reverse operation of spot and forward, and the hedging operation extended to a variety of securities, good profit opportunities can be found. In addition, it is also conducive to the implementation of trading behaviors such as "exchange arbitrage" and "butterfly arbitrage" in the current market. For example, some 5-year and 7-year treasury bonds have interest rate inversion, which is unsustainable in the medium and long term. However, due to the underdeveloped buyout repo market and the difficulty in borrowing bonds, opportunities are often seen but conditions are not implemented. The birth of forward trading business has increased the possibility of realizing these trading businesses. More importantly, forward trading is conducive to cross-market arbitrage. At present, it takes 2-3 days to transfer custody across the market. Through forward trading, the risk of price fluctuation caused by time difference can be eliminated, which is also conducive to the unification of pricing in the two markets objectively. If commercial banks can make rational use of this business, they can also play the role of financing and balancing taxes.
Huang Zhen, general manager of Shanghai Bank's fund operation center, also believes that in the first day of bond forward trading, although most participants are obviously trying, the trading cycle is short and the trading volume is small, with the deepening of market members' understanding of the business and the improvement of operating proficiency, as well as the establishment of investors' scientific investment concept, I believe that forward trading has a good market foundation and development prospects. At present, the problem is that market members should use appropriate risk assessment methods or models, and fully realize their investment goals from bond forward transactions according to their own business needs and reasonable evaluation and prediction of market risks.
As the only fund franchise institution with financial license, the Fund Operation Center of Industrial Bank began to study and analyze the forward trading mode at the beginning of product creativity, and made positive preparations in internal control system and external trading channels. Therefore, the bank successfully completed the first transaction in the market with ICBC in combination with its own asset management needs. Li Jianbao, senior deputy manager of the Capital Operation Center of Industrial Bank, believes that the possibility of risk-free arbitrage and one-way speculation in forward trading will inevitably attract more funds and different types of institutions to enter the market, improve the activity of the interbank market and discover the real bond yield curve. In short, forward trading will promote the market to develop in a deeper and broader direction, provide different platforms for institutions with different needs, and lay the foundation for the orderly launch of other financial derivatives.