Four. Analysis of the reasons for the price increase in the international steel market In the first half of 2008, the main driving force for the high price increase in the international steel market was the shortage of global steel resources and the strong demand for steel from emerging countries in the Asian market. The sharp rise of steel production cost and inflationary pressure are both important factors that constitute the high international steel price. 1. The growth rate of the world economy has slowed down, but it still maintains a relatively fast growth rate. The strong economic development of emerging countries has stimulated the growth of steel demand. Since the beginning of this year, influenced by the American economy, global economic growth has slowed down. However, the economic growth of emerging countries such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, CIS and South America, as well as China, is still developing rapidly, which has promoted the growth of steel demand. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic rate in 2008 was 4. 1%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The US economic growth rate was raised to 1.3%, up by 0.5 percentage points; The euro zone economy is raised from 1.4% to1.7%; Japan's growth rate was also raised by 0. 1 percentage point to 1.5%. Emerging and developing economies still maintain a high-speed growth trend, and the growth rate is expected to be 6.9% and 6.7% respectively this year and next. In addition, the soaring oil price has promoted the economic growth of oil exporting countries, especially those in the Middle East. It is estimated that the economy will grow by 6.2% this year, which is the only region in the world that is higher than the economic growth rate of last year. The upward adjustment of economic growth rate shows that the global economy has maintained rapid growth and stimulated the growth of steel demand. 2. Global steel demand is strong and resource supply is tight. The World Iron and Steel Association predicts that the global apparent consumption of steel will reach10.279 billion tons in 2008, an increase of 6.8% compared with 2007, and the apparent consumption will increase by 4.4% after deducting China. From June to June, the global crude steel output increased by 5.7%, only by 3.5% excluding China. Judging from the growth rate of supply and demand, the global crude steel output growth rate is about 1 percentage point lower than the demand (apparent consumption), and the steel resources in the international market are relatively tight. The growth of global steel market demand is mainly driven by the strong demand of emerging economies, while steel consumption in developed countries has basically remained at last year's level. It is estimated that the steel consumption in CIS, Asia and Africa will increase by 8.7-9.5%, which is higher than the global apparent consumption growth rate of crude steel 1.9-2.7 percentage points respectively. It is estimated that the global crude steel output will exceed 65.438+400 million tons in 2008, an increase of about 5%. 3. The high cost in the international market pushes the global steel price to rise continuously. The sharp depreciation of the US dollar in the first half of this year has put great pressure on global inflation. The exchange rate of the US dollar has been lowered from 5.25% at the beginning of the year to 2% at present, which has affected the sharp appreciation of other countries' currencies, greatly increased the exchange cost of export products denominated in US dollars, and pushed up the prices of primary products such as oil, coal, iron ore and grain in the international market. The world crude oil price rose from the beginning of the year to the highest 1 1 in July, reaching 147 USD/barrel; Based on the international iron ore price in 2007, Brazilian ores increased by 65-7 1%, while Australian ores increased by 79.88% and 96.5%. The price of coal has also risen sharply, and the price of coking coal has risen from $98 to $300 per ton, an increase of nearly 2 times; The international scrap price soared, and the scrap price index increased by 106.2% at the end of June compared with the beginning of the year, and increased by 1 15.5% year-on-year. The depreciation of the dollar and the sharp rise in the prices of primary products in the international market have pushed up the international steel production costs and driven the global steel prices to rise at a high level.