Abstract: At present, China's grain production has been reduced year after year, which has led to its large-scale price increase, which has sounded the alarm of food security for Chinese people and aroused widespread concern in academic circles. Therefore, this paper first judges the current situation of China's food security, and then analyzes its future development trend of supply and demand. Finally, some superficial suggestions on how to ensure China's food security are put forward in order to be beneficial to the grain decision-making of relevant departments. Keywords: food security; Food price fluctuation; Countermeasures 1. Judging the current food security situation in China, two recent events have sounded the alarm for food security for Chinese people: First, the grain output fell below 450 billion kilograms last year, a decrease of more than 20 billion kilograms over the previous year. Second, since the second half of last year, the prices of bulk agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil, pork and vegetables have generally risen in an all-round way. Faced with the decrease in grain production and the increase in the prices of bulk agricultural products, domestic scholars have different views on the current and future food security situation. Some scholars believe that there is no problem with food security in China, and the government need not worry too much; Another scholar thinks that China's grain supply and demand has entered a new turning point, and there will be a serious grain problem in China in the next three years, which needs the government's great attention. Is there any problem with the current food security in China? Is the demand in short supply or will there be food hidden dangers? To this end, we need to judge the current food security situation: from 1995, China's grain has been harvested for four consecutive years, and the net import of grain from 1995 to 1998 is 25 billion kilograms, which leads to the total grain supply exceeding consumption in the whole year, resulting in surplus. Since 1999, China's grain consumption demand has been roughly between 480 billion Jin and 490 billion Jin, and the grain output has been hovering around 450 billion Jin for four consecutive years, which is not a concern. In recent years, the annual grain demand gap in China is between 30 billion and 40 billion kilograms, reaching 45 billion kilograms and 55 billion kilograms in 2003. In this context, food security is naturally taken seriously again. From 1999 to 2003, the national total grain output decreased by 77.2 billion kilograms. Grain output decreased by 9. 1% in 2000 and 2. 1% in 2006. In 2003, the grain output decreased by 5% compared with the previous year, and the per capita possession was only 335 kg, the lowest in 20 years. During the period of SARS in 2003, the domestic grain price attracted great attention from the competent department of the Ministry of Agriculture. Entering the autumn harvest season, the prices of grain and oil in various places show signs of rapid rise. Recently, food prices in China rose for the first time in six years. Rice in Anhui, a major grain-producing province in central China, rose by 30%, wheat in Heilongjiang in northeast China rose by 19%, and corn in Shaanxi province rose by 15%. The reduction of grain production and the change of supply and demand are one of the reasons for the rise of food prices. People are generally concerned: what will happen to the relationship between grain supply and demand? II. Analysis of the future supply and demand trend of China's grain problem As mentioned above, from the development trend, there are potential risks and unsafe factors in China's grain security in the future. There are hidden dangers in theory, mainly because there is a contradiction between the infinite expansion of China's subjective demand for food and the limited regeneration of objective resources. There is a contradiction between the rigid growth of grain demand and the limited regeneration of resources. If this contradiction is not handled properly, the risks hidden between them will be exposed, even intensified, leading to food insecurity and even food crisis. From the state of mind, the restriction of grain supply, the growth of demand and the imperfection of the market system, we can also see various risks and problems existing in China's grain production and marketing. (1) China's grain demand is in a state of rigid growth, mainly due to the following five unchanging development trends: First, the total population of the country is huge and the base is high, and the annual growth of 10 million will not change in a short time. Second, the trend of increasing urbanization rate will not change. By the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, the urbanization rate of the population will increase from the current 33% to over 40%. Third, the trend of further improvement of residents' living structure will not change, the trend of diversification and high quality of food consumption will be strengthened, and the consumption of animal protein food will increase. Fourth, adjusting the economic structure, constantly improving the ecological environment and implementing the strategy of sustainable development will not change. China will continue to return farmland to forest, grazing and grassland on a large scale, which will inevitably require increasing grain subsidies and food supply for returning farmland. Fifth, as the strategic focus of agricultural development in China, animal husbandry will not change, and the demand for feed grain will increase greatly. These factors determine that the demand for grain and staple food in China will continue to grow. It is estimated that by 2005, the total grain demand in China will increase to 504.5 million tons, of which the demand for rations, feed grains, industrial grains and grain crops will increase to 289.38 million tons,158.03 million tons, 43.99 million tons and131000 million tons respectively, an increase of 6.543 million tons over 2002. Undoubtedly, with the increasing demand for food and staple food, the burden of ensuring national food security will become heavier and heavier. (2) The grain supply is restricted by many factors, so it is very difficult to improve the supply capacity. The reason why the grain supply is restricted by many factors and the supply capacity is difficult to improve is mainly because there are many defects in the enjoyment of natural resources in China: 1. Less arable land and narrow production scale. Before there is a fundamental breakthrough in agriculture and grain science and technology, the planting area and output of grain are the decisive factors for the sustained growth of total grain output. The per capita arable land in China is only 1.5 mu, accounting for only 40% of the world. It is predicted that by 2065,438+00, the per capita arable land in China will drop to 65,438+0.43 mu, which is simply incomparable with some foreign countries: 65,438+020.8 hectares in Australia and 65,438+065,438 hectares in Canada. It can't be ignored that at present, the cultivated land in China is still decreasing at the rate of millions of mu per year, and the shrinking of cultivated land area is an important constraint factor in China's grain production. 2. Water resources are short, and drought is a serious threat. China is a country with serious water shortage in the world, with a per capita water resource of only 2,220 cubic meters, which is 1/4 of the world's per capita water resource, and its distribution is extremely unbalanced. Most of the water resources are distributed in the south, and the places north of the Yangtze River are generally short of water, such as Henan, Hebei, Shandong and Northeast China, which are major grain producing areas. It is these areas that are the largest grain base and the main source of commodity grain in China. However, water shortage has become a restrictive factor for increasing production in major grain producing areas. 3. Water resources are seriously polluted. According to statistics, 850 rivers in China 1200 are seriously polluted, and agricultural products produced by irrigating farmland with polluted water are also polluted. Environment and water pollution have reduced the quality of grain and agricultural products in China. 4. After China's entry into WTO, China's agricultural products export is hindered by foreign green barriers. We can't blame others for raising barriers, but should seriously reflect on whether the contaminated food we produce can be eaten by our own people. People in China should also eat green food. It is reported that the annual discharge of wastewater and sewage in China is as high as 60.6 billion tons, the water quality of tributaries and downstream of seven major water systems is deteriorating, and the eutrophication of lakes, estuaries and bays is becoming more and more serious. To sum up, on the one hand, China is short of water, on the other hand, pollution intensifies the shortage of water resources, causing ecological fragility and frequent droughts and floods, which restricts the growth of grain output. (3) The promotion of "returning farmland to forests and grasslands" has objectively aggravated the contradiction of food demand. According to the plan of the Ministry of Forestry, by 2006, the whole country will return farmland to forests/kloc-0.467 million hectares, involving hundreds of millions of people. By 2002, the area of returning farmland to forests in China was 7.2 million hectares, involving farmers130 thousand people. From 2000 to 2002, the project of returning farmland to forests invested a total of 23.354 billion yuan, including 654.38+05.008 billion yuan in grain subsidies, 654.38+07.53 billion yuan in cash subsidies, 420 million yuan in transfer payments from the central government, and 654.38+0.075 billion kilograms of grain stored in the central government. In 2003, China invested 26.669 billion yuan in the project of returning farmland to forests, and supplied 654.38+03.35 billion kilograms of grain that year. In addition, local governments have to bear 654.38+0.87 billion yuan of grain transportation costs. Personally, I think it is a wise decision to implement the strategy of returning farmland to forests, which has made great achievements at present and in the future and should be fully affirmed. However, great progress has been made today, and the progress has to be adjusted. Just like a war, after a large-scale attack has achieved brilliant results, it needs to be summarized and consolidated before it can be fought again. The great movement of returning farmland to forests has been going on for three years, and now 6.67 million hectares of farmland have been returned. So far, the state has provided tens of billions of yuan and tens of billions of kilograms of grain. It is predicted that from 2005, the grain supply will reach a climax, and the validity period of returning farmland to forests will be eight years, which will require a huge amount of grain. In order to consolidate the achievements, it is necessary to make appropriate adjustments according to the country's grain supply capacity, financial resources and local economic development level. In other words, it is necessary to conduct a mid-term evaluation of returning farmland to forests, sum up experience, focus on problems, highlight key points, and steadily improve. In other words, the scale of returning farmland to forests should be stable, consolidated, improved and implemented in different categories, which can help to fight again. In short, the implementation of the project of returning farmland to forests must take into account the factors of food security and the problem of consolidation and non-rebound after returning farmland to forests. (D) Agricultural science and technology is relatively backward, and the service system is still very weak. At present, 80% of the growth of agriculture and grain in developed countries and 70% of the improvement of agricultural labor productivity are achieved by agricultural science and technology, while China's agricultural science and technology is still relatively backward. According to the special research of China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology in China was 34.28% during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period, which was worse than that in developed countries 1/3 or more. During the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, it increased to 40.7%, which was about half worse than that of developed countries. In addition, at present, China's rural science and technology services are particularly backward. In the current situation of economic globalization and fierce competition, agricultural science and technology, as the primary productive force, is still quite backward, which is an important constraint. (5) There are 30 million rural people who do not have enough food and clothing, and 7.25 million urban unemployed people. Solving the food security problem of this part of the population is also an important part of national food security. It is more difficult for the remaining 30 million rural people to get rid of poverty. There are many objective factors that make it difficult for these people to get rid of poverty, some are lack of living conditions, some are low-quality workers, and some are socially disadvantaged groups caused by physical disabilities. According to the concept of food security, to ensure that everyone has food, this is a problem that must be solved to ensure food security. Judging from the above comments, there are various hidden dangers and risk factors in China's food security, which must be paid enough attention to and must not be taken lightly. Three. Countermeasures-Establishing a National Food Security System As can be seen from the following table, the indicators of China's food security level, per capita food possession and food self-sufficiency rate are slightly lower than the world average, while the other two indicators are higher than the world average. Compared with the above countries, China's comprehensive level of food security is lower than that of the United States, Canada, France and Australia, but higher than that of Russia, Japan and India. This shows that it is not easy to achieve such a high level of food security with a large population and a small population, and it is also a great contribution of China to world food security. Further analysis, we found that only the comparison of static indicators can not explain all the food security problems. Because in essence, food security should be determined by the national conditions of each country and the food situation at different stages of development. At present, many factors affecting China's food security have changed, and building a well-off society in an all-round way has put forward higher requirements for food security. Therefore, we must clearly understand the opportunities and challenges faced by China's food security and comprehensively deal with China's food security problems. Table of food security of major food producers and consumers in the world: fluctuation index of total grain output; Grain self-sufficiency rate; Grain reserve rate; Grain per capita (kg) China 1.88 98.37 24.65 344 USA 7.56138.32 45.831252 Canada 6.69179.69 79.8513. France 4.14163.0719.01.985 Australia 9.8 1.298.85 49.24 748 Russia 5.64 94.601/kloc-. 2 1 India 3.6497.6215.26231100.18 40.42348 (Note: the first three indicators in this table are/kloc. The per capita grain possession is 1.992- 1.994. Faced with the above problems of food security in China, China scholars put forward many countermeasures, such as: attaching importance to food security ideologically; Science and technology promote grain; Adopt technology integration to realize super-high yield of grain; We should make full use of existing agricultural resources; Policy inclination to agriculture and so on. However, I believe that in order to fundamentally solve the hidden dangers of food security in China, we must formulate a food security guarantee system according to China's national conditions, economic development and characteristics of food security. (1) Adhere to the basic farmland system and improve the sustainable production capacity of grain. Before there is a fundamental breakthrough in science and technology, cultivated land is still the basis of grain source. Ensuring sufficient grain area and steadily improving the grain production capacity of cultivated land should be the basis for ensuring national food security. Therefore, we should continue to cherish every inch of cultivated land and adhere to the basic farmland protection system. China should strictly observe the insurmountable "red line" of 1 at present. 1 100 million hectares of basic farmland, while maintaining the grain planting area1300 million hectares-1700 million hectares. At the same time, it is necessary to implement preferential policies for major grain producing areas and strengthen protection and support for farmers in major grain producing areas. At present, it is urgent to take "five protection" and "five improvement" measures: first, protect the interests of its main farmers and effectively improve their production enthusiasm; The second is to protect its basic scarce resources arable land and continuously improve production capacity; Third, protect its lifeline water source and effectively improve the utilization rate of water resources; Fourth, protect the barrier ecological environment and vigorously improve the ability to continuously increase production; The fifth is to protect its key agricultural science and technology and improve the innovation ability of agricultural grain science and technology. Combined with these important measures, we will continue to build a modern commodity grain base and form a new stable grain production capacity and commodity grain supply base. (2) Cultivate and improve the modern grain market system to ensure the safe and effective supply of national grain. Giving full play to the basic role of grain market mechanism in the allocation of grain resources can guarantee grain supply efficiently, flexibly and at low cost. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a complete grain market system with the national wholesale market as the leader, the regional wholesale market as the backbone, the numerous bazaars all over the country as the foundation and the grain futures market as the forerunner. In the process of strengthening and perfecting the market system, we should pay more attention to the construction of the market credit system and adopt "five strengthening" and "five strictness" measures to standardize the grain market system. At present, China is still a "non-credit country", with no credit system and credit intermediaries, and its international credit rating is still low. Therefore, we must establish a credit system based on honesty and strive to achieve "five enhancements": strengthening fair credit intermediary services, strengthening credit concepts and credit awareness of various grain market subjects, strengthening credit legislation and law enforcement in the grain market, strengthening the market-oriented development of intermediary industries within grain enterprises, and strengthening non-governmental organizations such as trade associations and self-discipline management. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen market supervision and implement the "five strictness": strict trading market access system; Strictly regulate the behavior of market subjects; Strict product quarantine inspection system; Severely punish counterfeit and shoddy goods and illegal transactions; Strictly implement the pollution-free packaging and labeling system of products. (three) adhere to and improve the grain reserve system, adjust the grain reserve structure and scale. Establishing a national grain reserve system is an international system to ensure food security. China is a big country with a large population and a small land and weak financial resources, so it is more necessary to establish and improve the grain reserve system. China's neighboring 14 countries have established grain reserves, and the Philippine grain reserve institutions are directly controlled by the President. Over the years, China has established a special grain reserve system, built a number of modern grain reserves and established a vertical management system, which has played an important role. But objectively speaking, China's grain reserve system is still unsatisfactory in terms of system and mechanism, with relatively high cost and insufficient macro-control function. Therefore, we must reform and adjust the national grain reserve system, especially the reserve scale and management, introduce the competition mechanism, gradually improve and perfect it, and strive to realize the five modernizations of standardized management, moderate scale, reasonable structure, institutionalized rotation and low cost. (four) the establishment of grain early warning system, timely provide accurate and reliable food information, to provide a basis for scientific decision-making. It is very necessary and important to establish a food early warning system and professional institutions to ensure national food security. This is also a common practice in the world, and many countries in the world have established early warning institutions. China should establish an early warning system and special early warning institutions as soon as possible, and professionals should closely track, collect, sort out and process information, so as to form the mainstream of information and provide the State Council with reports with opinions and arguments. First of all, it is necessary to establish an accurate and sensitive market price early warning system. Price is a barometer of market conditions and the most sensitive comprehensive reflection of market changes. If we grasp the price information of major agricultural products such as grain in time and comprehensively, we can make scientific decisions. The second is to establish an early warning system for the balance between supply and demand of total grain, and comprehensively monitor and master the balance of total grain resources, total consumption and total demand. The third is to establish a national food security early warning level and warning line. That is, when there is no police, when there is a weak police, to what extent the food risk is moderate and to what extent it is strong, so as to establish the alert level and warning line of food security to ensure the use of national food security. Fourth, establish a special early warning agency to collect, process and analyze all kinds of information, form a comprehensive report, and provide it to the government in time as a reliable basis for national grain decision-making. (5) Improve and innovate the scientific and technological support system, and rely on scientific and technological innovation to enhance national food security. Practice has proved that every agricultural scientific and technological revolution in the world has brought about the promotion of agriculture and grain industry, and also improved food security. However, as mentioned above, China's agricultural science and technology is still relatively weak in general, especially its original innovation ability, and its role in adjusting agricultural industrial structure and product structure, transforming traditional industries and forming new economic growth points is not strong enough. Therefore, perfecting and innovating the scientific and technological support system is of great significance to the deep processing of agricultural products in China, enhancing the added value of agricultural products, increasing farmers' income and ensuring food security. Starting from the current actual needs, we should improve the improved seed system, safe storage system, deep processing system, resource development and transformation system and quality standard system of agriculture and grain. It is particularly emphasized here that the establishment and improvement of the quality standard system of agricultural products such as grain should be in line with international standards, so as to promote the quality of domestic products such as grain to meet the requirements of the international market. This not only meets the needs of China to meet the challenge of WTO entry and break the "green barrier" of foreign countries, but also meets the demand of domestic market for high-quality and high-safety agricultural products. At present, the most urgent thing in China is to establish and improve the management standards and production technical standards of major agricultural products such as grain: the former includes environmental management standards of producing areas, production management standards, storage management standards, marketing management standards and health and safety management standards; The latter includes production technology, commodity quality, inspection and quarantine standards, etc. In addition to establishing a standard system, China should also vigorously develop green products and green food, break the "green barrier" of foreign countries with high-quality green products, and win a place in the international market. To sum up, a sober assessment of the current situation of food security in China and an objective prediction of the future trend of food security in China can neither be blindly optimistic about the national food security issue, nor waver between optimism and pessimism, disturbing people's hearts, nor be passive and pessimistic and lose confidence. As long as we can be prepared for danger in times of peace, take precautions and take measures to establish a national food security system, China's food security can be effectively guaranteed. References: [1] Zhu Ze. Food security in China [M]. Wuhan: Hubei Science and Technology Press, 1998. [2] China Academy of Agricultural Sciences. China grain research [M]. Beijing: China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 1989. [3] Wang Jimin and Li Yuzhu. An Empirical Study on Grain Fluctuation in China [M]. Beijing: China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, 1995. [4] Zhu Xigang. 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