Main recommendations
Central Bank: The growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale was significantly higher than last year.
Central Bank: Actively and steadily promote R&D of legal digital currency in the second half of the year.
Market review
Market comments: The market sentiment is picking up, so it is suggested to dilute the index appropriately and grasp the main line to participate in the positive band.
Macro view: The replacement cycle of 5G mobile phones is approaching, and the performance of Apple Supply Chain Company can be expected.
Military industry: the fundamentals of the industry continue to improve, and the valuation of industry leaders will increase.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 43 1.94, up 0.66%; Copper 5 10 10, down1.16%; Rebar 3766, up 2.09%; Rubber 1 1635, up1.31%; The PVC index was 66 10, rising by1.46%; Zheng Chun 1754, down1.07%; Shanghai Aluminum 14425, down 0.59%; Shanghai nickel 109020, down1.21%; Iron ore was 835.5, up 3.98%; Coke in 2009.5, up 2.39%; Coking coal 1226.0, up1.36%; Brent oil was 44.95, up 0.92%; Soda 14 15, up by 4.74%; Urea 1698, up by 4.04%; Glass 1725, up by 3.92%; You Zheng 8699, up 3.37%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 64 14, up 2.95%; Corn 2274, down 0.39%; Palm oil 5758, up 3.64%; Zheng Mian 12395, up1.14%; Zheng Mai 2595, up1.53%; Sugar 4973, up1.24%; Apple 7 178, down1.06%; Jujube 9450, down 0.63%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1. 18, down 0.11%; USD/RMB .6.98, up 0.08%; USD/HK$ 7.75, up 0.0 1%.
Second, the key recommendation
1. central bank: guiding the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale to be significantly higher than last year?
Event: On August 3, the People's Bank of China held a video conference on the work in the second half of 2020 to convey and study the important arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on economic and financial work, summarize the work in the first half of the year, analyze the economic and financial situation, and deploy key work in the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out that monetary policy should be more flexible, moderate and accurate, and the policies that have been introduced to stabilize enterprises and ensure employment should be implemented effectively. The comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools to guide the broad money supply and social financing scale growth rate is significantly higher than last year. At the same time, we should pay attention to grasp the rhythm, optimize the structure, and promote the substantial growth of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises and medium and long-term loans for manufacturing. Focus on the implementation of rediscount policy and two direct refinancing tools 1 trillion yuan, delay as much as possible, and include small and micro enterprises affected by the epidemic as much as possible. At the same time, adhere to the principle of marketization, respect the independent management right of commercial banks, support policies without rigid requirements, and eliminate the concerns and worries of small and micro enterprises. Do a good job in phased supervision, evaluation and acceptance, promote the obvious decline of corporate financing costs, and effectively promote the financial system to make profits to enterprises.
Comments: Affected by the epidemic, in order to hedge the downward pressure on the economy, the central bank increased the countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy this year, and the prudent monetary policy was more flexible and moderate. The growth rate of broad money supply has reached more than 10% for several consecutive months, and the scale of social financing has also maintained a high growth rate. Under the background of loose monetary environment and warm policies, it is expected that the market will continue its structural performance.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. Central Bank: In the second half of the year, actively and steadily promote the research and development of legal digital currency.
Event: The central bank held a teleconference on work in the second half of 2020. The meeting pointed out that the pilot project of legal digital currency closure was successfully launched in the second half of 2020. Actively and steadily promote research and development of statutory digital currency. Accelerate the establishment of a market-wide transaction reporting system and a master database of transaction reports.
Comments: At present, digital currency, the central bank, is conducting pilot projects in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiong 'an and Chengdu, and digital currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China officially reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Didi Chuxing in July. * * * digital currency, the central bank, is actively and steadily promoting the innovative application of DC/EP in the field of smart travel, which will bring event opportunities to relevant stocks.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
Market comments: The market sentiment is picking up, so it is suggested to dilute the index appropriately and grasp the main line to participate in the positive band.
Major stock indexes rose across the board on Monday. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.75% to 3,367.99 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.4% to13,964.56 points, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose 2.63% to 2,868.88 points. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 7.26% to 1622.5438+0. The total turnover of the two cities was 65.438+33.39 billion yuan, exceeding one trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days. The market presents a moderate volume pattern. On the disk, all sectors generally rose, the military sector showed daily limit, satellite navigation and drones were active, and more than 40 stocks in the sector showed daily limit. In addition, chips, biological vaccines, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao are active, and software, film and television stocks, chemicals, medicine, brokerage and other sectors are all strong. The overall market sentiment has picked up and started to be active. In the case of warmer news and relatively loose liquidity, it is expected that the market will still show a volatile rebound trend in the near future. In operation, it is suggested to dilute the index appropriately and grasp the active band participation of the main line. Pay attention to the industrial chain of military industry, brokerage, chip, biomedicine and Huawei. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Macro view: The replacement cycle of 5G mobile phones is approaching, and the performance of Apple Supply Chain Company can be expected.
Event: Apple recently confirmed that the release of the new iPhone in the second half of this year will be delayed by several weeks compared with last year. According to industry insiders, the delayed release of the new iPhone has little impact on the supply chain. With the advent of Apple's 5G replacement cycle, supply chain companies will usher in good results.
Comments: When the 5G era comes, everyone will change their 5G phones. Apple is a leading consumer electronics company. Apple's supply chain companies are expected to have strong performance this year. It is expected that Apple's supply chain will be a relatively more certain investment direction in the second half of the year, and it is recommended to pay due attention to grasping relevant investment opportunities.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
Military industry: the fundamentals of the industry continue to improve, and the valuation of industry leaders will increase.
The turbulent surrounding situation and the continuous improvement of the securitization of military assets are expected to continue to improve the fundamentals of the military industry in 2020; Secondly, the industry is less affected by the epidemic and has a certain hedging effect. Strategically, many military sectors. It is recommended to focus on leading stocks.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)