There is a simple reason. In any system, any country and any exchange under any trading mode, there are more or less risk events such as "crowding positions" including "forcing multiple short positions". So, how to participate in LME market transactions to achieve the purpose of hedging? The author thinks that we should study and discuss it from the following angles in order to grasp it.

First of all, we should discuss and track the CRB commodity futures price index to grasp the overall commodity price trend. If the overall commodity price is rising, then it is more certain to judge that individual markets are rising. Take the current trend of CRB index as an example. It runs in a perfect ascending channel, indicating that it is running a big bull market with no obvious turning signal. Under such circumstances, the market running in the opposite direction should be in a big bull market.

Secondly, it is necessary to find out the group direction of the nonferrous metal market to which copper belongs. At present, among the non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, nickel, tin and zinc, all other non-ferrous metals are on the rise except that tin is in deep correction and nickel is in triangular consolidation. At present, copper is an obvious dominant variety.

Third, look at the operation of copper on continuous monthly K line and weekly K line. Generally speaking, the bull market that has been running for several years will be reversed, and there will be signs on the monthly K line and the weekly K line. The swing index can even give an early warning of the current trend power outage in a more timely manner.

Fourthly, the form of Eliot wave is very important, because for the stock market and futures market, Eliot wave theory is likely to be an inclusive technical method. International funds and consortia are old players in the futures market, and the most commonly used technology in this game rule is Eliot wave theory. Wave theory has an all-round perspective on market operation, which helps to explain "why a specific form appears", "where it appears" and "why it has such predictive significance". In addition, it helps investors to determine the position of the current market in its overall structure. At present, many investors in China think Eliot's wave theory is too abstruse to grasp. In fact, its theoretical basis and mathematical basis are quite simple, such as Fibonacci retreat position and price target position, which can be obtained by simple calculation.

Fifth, is it possible to have periodic peaks or valleys at present? Cycle analysts believe that time period is the decisive factor to decide bull market and bear market. On the one hand, time plays a dominant role in the market. On the other hand, all technical tools are more powerful when combined with time period.

Sixth, China is the largest copper importer. When the opportunity of "active hedging" appears, you can buy copper from Luntong and sell copper from Shanghai calmly, but don't do "negative hedging" without the opportunity of active hedging. On the one hand, it violates the hedging principle, and on the other hand, the "negative hedging" operation, especially the centralized "negative hedging" behavior, is exactly the position structure that international funds and consortia love. In the OTC market, it is easier to be exposed naked to international predators, and failure is inevitable.

Seventh, strengthen supervision and curb the craze of blindly participating in LME metal trading. Futures investment is a very professional financial investment. Without an experienced and professional trading team, backed by good psychological quality and financial strength, and relying on personal heroism to participate in international metal futures varieties, it is inevitable to fail in the face of large international institutional investors with rich practical experience.

In short, every technical means, every fundamental factor and every detail change can be used as a clue to solve the mystery. The question is whether the means we choose are appropriate and skillful. The more clues a smart investor has, the greater the chance of solving the mystery. Especially when the enemies we face are powerful funds and consortia, we can't do it without the wisdom and solid basic skills of the wise.