For some people, this is destined to be eliminated when entering this market. So, if we want to be the 20%, we must beat the remaining 80%, and you are just one of these 20%. This proves that you are actually fighting against 99% of the people, so either you are very brave and good at fighting, or you can "curry favor with" as many people as possible to fight with you to achieve a greater chance of winning (team fighting), otherwise you are finished.
Since I started trading, this experience and trading time are far from precious compared with the predecessors of 10 trading, or I still have a long way to go, but for the new force of futures, I may be regarded as the lucky one who has lived for a long time. I feel lucky about this, but I will tell myself every day that maybe I will die next.
It is not easy to survive in this market. I need someone to teach me, but I can't use what others have taught me. This is the most crucial point. Of course, I also live longer by piracy and modifying other people's ideas and methods. Maybe one day my pirated goods are caught and I want to leave this market, so I need to constantly update my way every day or even every transaction, but one thing cannot be changed, that is, my own trading rules, and that is the people.
The trading system is nothing more than the synthesis of some trading indicators (technical aspects, fundamentals, news, etc.). ) and trading psychology and experience, or a summary of the transaction, and this summary is used to regulate that you can't make past mistakes in the future. So I prefer to compare it to the trading principle.
What do you want?
As we all know, Jews are the smartest and most profitable people in the world. Parents will give their children three questions at the bar mitzvah: 1. Where are you now? 2. Where are you going? 3. How do you get there? Then let them save all the answers to these three questions until they ask the next generation.
Of course, we all know that their three questions mean finding their own position, then setting their own goals, and finally how to achieve this goal. In fact, the same is true of futures trading. These three aspects are indispensable and must be kept in mind at all times. So I think that people who can survive in the futures market are even better than Jews.
What do you want from me? Everyone will find it very funny. Isn't everyone's purpose to make money? Yes, it's true, but in your concept of making money, you ignore one thing, that is, which part or how much money you want to make. This is very important.
For example, you can make money in many ways, and you don't have to speculate in futures. For example, beggars on the street are also making money, and migrant workers on the construction site are also making money.
The same is true for subdividing into futures markets. The segment line is profitable, and the band, center line or long line is profitable.
This time, the problem came out. Do you want to make money in the short term or in the middle line, in the long term or in the band? Many people will answer which way I want to make money. Well, congratulations, you won't make any money in the end. I think everyone knows that abalone and bear's paw can't have both.
First of all, for example, you originally wanted to make a mid-line profit, but there is a very big fluctuation in front of you to lure you to make a short-term profit. I thought, why don't you give me the money you obviously earned?
So place an order. There are two situations at this time. First, your center line sheet and your short line sheet are in the same direction. Second, on the contrary, a big problem will happen at this time. At the same time, you may have earned this short-term at this time, but you will soon stop the loss in a short-term way, and there are still many profits behind it that are missed. In fact, this situation is not very bad, at least you make money, and the situation behind will be very miserable.
The short line and the middle line are in opposite directions. At this time, it is very likely that the center line will be operated in a short-term manner. In this way, the short line will become the center line, and the direction of the center line you originally saw is correct, but because your short line direction is opposite to his.
At this time, the operation against the market appeared, and a short-term loss mentality was broken. People's bad habits at this time are usually like this. I will wait for the reckoning. It may go up in the future. By then, we won't lose much in Pingping.
At this time, the market continues to develop in a direction unfavorable to you, and the losses continue to increase. This psychology is beginning to panic. A short-term order leads to a large-scale loss, and the profit-loss ratio is seriously unbalanced. I believe that most beginners have made this mistake.
Where is the reason for this mistake? When you look back, it's not hard to find that it's because you crave what you don't deserve. Why don't you say you don't deserve it? Because you only want the middle line, you want to eat all the short-term parts of others. Of course, people are not so easy to let you go, otherwise it is actually very simple to make money from the middle line of others.
the unity of knowing and doing
The unity of knowing and doing, as the name implies, means that your thoughts and ideas must be consistent with your actions. In fact, this is very difficult to achieve. I often like to use this sentence to describe the contradiction in trading: the struggle between thought and action.
If we can persist in this for a long time, it will be a breakthrough. In fact, many people's analysis of the market is correct and the analysis is in place. But why did the final order lose money?
For example, a trader thought that London had basically hit the bottom after the financial crisis and there should be a small rebound, so he began to look for opportunities to open a position to rebound, but in a certain transaction, copper suddenly fell by a big yinxian. At this time, he still watched the rebound, but made an empty order and wanted to make more money. But in the next few trading days, copper rebounded for a week.
I'm telling you this because your behavior is different from your own thoughts. You know it's rock bottom now. You can't fall or anything. You will still go home empty-handed, knowing that it is only a matter of time before you rebound. Why not prepare for a rebound? Sometimes you have only yourself to blame.
There is another situation in this point, that is, when you are not sure about the market, when your subjective view is very uncertain, it is best not to make a single order. Why?
It's actually very simple. When you can't believe in yourself, it's hard to do things well. For example, a day's gold, I can hardly see the right direction, and I feel that it is possible to go up and down. My own psychology is half up and half down. Are you long or short?
Many people choose to gamble from the beginning, or ask others how to operate. This reminds me of a friend's words, "Bo is wrong, not Bo is missed", which is really reasonable, but I refuted him at that time and said that in this market, I would rather miss than make mistakes. So at this time, it is best not to go to Bo, not too much, and not to go into space.
In fact, many people can't stop. As long as the market is moving, he wants to make orders. This problem is also very common. So I eliminated a group of people with the simple standard of "seeing more and moving less".
You've been giving orders. There are three kinds of people who like you very much (exchange people, futures company people, your broker), including myself, and I am also a middleman. But I'm different. I think that the more times an investor trades in this market, the less time he lives, which is harmful to both sides.
I think what we should do is to find ways to make customers profitable or find what they want.
The above also includes a situation, that is, when in doubt, ask others' opinions before placing an order. First of all, we must understand this problem. This order is not made under your subjective consciousness, but it is indeed your own order. At this time, maybe you will think so. Everyone else has done it, so I should have no problem doing it. This problem is a world of difference.
Why? First of all, in other people's minds, this list is generally planned for what to do if something is wrong, or to win if something is right, but in your own mind, there are not all strategies, so once you encounter an abnormal situation, you start to panic and don't know where to start.
Even if it's right, do you know what it means not to win? There is no concept of winning in your subconscious. Only the concept of when others will close their positions. At this time, because of their own funds and shipping space, their mentality is different from others. So the strategy to be done is very different.
There are still some traders who find it difficult to know what they think and ask people around them what they think of the market. At this time, the following undesirable phenomena will appear: 1. You and he have roughly the same views and directions. 2. Two people's ideas are totally different.
The former is fine, and both of them can be complacent (but it will also encourage their own greed), while the latter is in trouble. For example, when others feel that their analysis is in place and more comprehensive than their own, they will begin to doubt their own judgment. At this time, the brain will be in a mess. At this time, there is no sense of the overall situation when making a single order, and it will be very limited.
So I personally think it is necessary to discuss the market, but pay attention to the situation. The best transaction is more about mentality, communicating past mistakes, rather than how to look at the future market. I don't think it's meaningful to look at the future market after the transaction. Who knows what the future market will be like? Who knows? People who know probably don't have to eat fireworks.
Because what we have to do is not to predict how accurate the market is, but to make what strategies to use when the market is unfavorable to us. When the market is favorable to us, it is natural to make money.
Therefore, it is not necessary to be so sad and mysterious to analyze the market when the strategy is done. Personally, I think it is foolish to predict the market blindly.
About stop loss and take profit
These two words have always been drooling words. Most people think it is too difficult to set a stop loss, or how to set a stop loss and so on. In fact, I personally think it is not difficult to set a stop loss, but it is difficult to stop winning.
First of all, we must clarify the concepts of stop loss and stop winning. Stop loss is simply how to deal with the list that has lost money, and stop winning is when to close your profit list.
These seemingly simple words are actually related to earning more and earning less, and losing thanks to less.
Let's start with stop loss. The purpose of stop loss is to reduce losses. Many experts or predecessors have repeatedly reminded this word, but there is no specific setting. Why?
Because everyone's psychological endurance is different, I personally think that stop loss is not a public point, it depends on everyone's psychological endurance. Another point is that stop loss is a list to deal with losses, so if it is not handled properly, it will lead to greater losses. After trading for so long, my personal experience is that the stop loss is not too fast, only too late.
Therefore, I think the stop loss must be set in advance, and it can only be stopped in advance or at this time, and it cannot be delayed any longer. Don't wait and see.
As long as you have this idea, you will lose money sooner or later, so stop loss means cutting. It is best to add the word "cut fast" in front. Stop loss requires iron discipline. It is generally not difficult to do this. Give yourself a hard target and then implement it for a while, and then you can do it slowly.
In contrast, winning is a very big problem. Some people will start to contradict me. Why is it so difficult to stop winning? Isn't it just to make money? Making money is a good thing.
So, the problem comes out, precisely because it is too simple to stop winning in everyone's eyes, isn't it just to make money? So let's stop winning, and when we make money, we will soon be even. This is what everyone calls stopping winning. So everyone only made a small part of a big market. Therefore, no one has made a fortune, but this small profit is not enough to make up for the loss. Why?
Let me give an example of the market after the National Day in 2008. Take copper for example. A friend around me made this wave of copper collapse. There were more than 10 daily limit boards in succession. I only earned three boards and began to watch the profits of 10 boards flow away. Why? Because I was unable to accept such a big profit.
Most traders have the mentality of making money, so they immediately close their positions. Seeing a lot of profits run away, because the money doesn't belong to him yet. This is to win.
Personally, the success of victory is related to the crystallization of a trader's emotion, psychology, personality, experience, inspiration, vision and wisdom. The word "heart" sometimes really feels meaningful and unspeakable.
Take the soybean oil of March 2009 17 as an example. I advised my friends around me to eat more soybean oil, and most of them ate too much. However, there is no color in both trading days. At that time, the opening price was 6083(0909 contract), and finally began to rise on the third trading day.
That day, it really rose by 100, but before the close of the day, only three friends I suggested at that time spent the night, and the rest started counting money that day. After that, it rose by 100 points every day for three consecutive trading days, and finally only 1 person closed the position with me.
We all made a profit of 430 points when we finally closed our positions. Others only earned 120 points, and retreated more than 30% in the subsequent ordinary transactions. I also think they belong to the lucky part, after all, there is no loss.
Of course, sometimes it will lead to a lot of profits and even losses, so winning is related to how much money someone will earn.
In fact, if someone loses badly, 80% of the orders will make money after opening positions, and only 20% of them have never made a profit after opening positions. But in fact, the final profit is very small. The biggest reason is that it is too difficult to win, not very simple.