Butterfly Effect The Butterfly Effect refers to a dynamic system, and small changes in initial conditions can drive a long-term huge chain reaction of the whole system. This is a chaotic phenomenon. A butterfly flapping its wings gently in the tropics may cause a hurricane in a distant country.

basic concept

Edward lorenz, an American meteorologist, analyzed the butterfly effect in his paper submitted to the New York Academy of Sciences in 1963. "A meteorologist mentioned that if this theory is proved to be correct, a seagull flapping its wings is enough to change the weather forever." In his later speeches and papers, he used more poetic butterflies. The most common explanation for this effect is: "A butterfly in the tropical rain forest of the Amazon River basin in South America can cause a tornado in Texas within two weeks with an occasional flap of its wings." The reason is that the movement of butterfly flapping its wings causes changes in the surrounding air system, resulting in weak airflow, which in turn causes corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems, causing a chain reaction and eventually leading to great changes in other systems. This is the so-called chaos. The source of this sentence is that meteorologists have made a computer program that can simulate climate change and show it with images. Finally, he found that the image was chaotic, very much like a butterfly with open wings, so he explained the figure vividly in the way of "butterfly flapping its wings", so he had the above statement. Butterfly effect is usually used in weather, stock market and other complex systems that are difficult to predict in a certain period of time. This effect shows that the result of the development of things is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, and the smallest deviation of the initial conditions will cause great differences in the results. Butterfly effect is used in sociology to explain a bad micro-mechanism, which will bring great harm to society if it is not guided and adjusted in time, and is dubbed as "tornado" or "storm"; A good micro-mechanism, as long as it is guided correctly, will have a sensational effect after a period of efforts, or it will be called a "revolution."

Edit the theoretical basis of this paragraph.

The butterfly effect was put forward by meteorologist Lorenz 1963. Edward lorenz in the Amazon basin of South America.

Butterflies in the tropical rain forest, occasionally flapping their wings, may cause a tornado in Texas in two weeks. The reason is that the movement of butterfly wings leads to the change of the surrounding air system, producing weak airflow, which in turn will cause the corresponding change of the surrounding air or other systems, causing a chain reaction, which will eventually lead to great changes in other systems. This effect shows that the result of the development of things is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, and the smallest deviation of the initial conditions will cause great differences in the results. Butterfly effect is a concept in chaos theory. It refers to the dependence on the sensitivity of initial conditions. Small differences at the input end will quickly amplify to the output end. Butterfly effect is everywhere in economic life: China announced the launch of missiles, and US$ 654.38+0 billion from Hong Kong and Taiwan flowed to the United States. Butterfly effect, also known as billiards effect, is a figurative term that chaotic systems are extremely sensitive to initial values, and it is also the direct cause of chaotic phenomena in nonlinear systems under certain conditions (which can be called critical conditions or threshold conditions).

Theoretical significance of editing this paragraph

A small butterfly flapping its wings over a certain place disturbs the air, which may cause a storm in a distant place for a long time, which is a metaphor for the unpredictable and serious consequences caused by a small factor in long-term large-scale weather forecast. Small deviations are inevitable, which makes long-term weather forecast unpredictable or inaccurate. This is like playing billiards, chess and other human activities, which are often "a thousand miles away, a tiny difference" and "one careless move will lose the game." Long-term large-scale weather forecast is the observation, calculation, analysis and judgment of the complex system of the earth's atmosphere, which is influenced and restricted by many factors that change at any time and place. It can be considered that the prediction of its comprehensive effect is difficult to be accurate and the butterfly effect is inevitable. Our human research objects also involve other complex systems (including "natural systems" and "social systems"), and their internal constraints are also complex, and their "butterfly effect" is inevitable. "Today's butterfly effect" or "generalized butterfly effect" is not limited to the original Lorenz butterfly effect, which is only used for weather forecasting, but is synonymous with all complex systems being extremely sensitive to initial values, which means that for all complex systems, under certain "threshold conditions", their long-term and large-scale future behaviors are extremely sensitive to small changes or deviations of initial conditions, that is, small changes or deviations of initial values will lead to huge future prospects. Butterfly effect refers to a very small change in initial conditions, which will have a great impact on its future state after continuous amplification. Some small things can be confused, and some small things are very important to an organization and a country if they are amplified by the system, so we can't confuse them.

Edit the conceptual source of this paragraph.

Lorenz curve-the concept of knowledge "butterfly effect" was put forward by meteorologist Lorenz 1963. In order to forecast the weather, he used a computer to solve the 13 equations that simulated the earth's atmosphere, in order to improve the accuracy of long-term weather forecast by using the high-speed operation of the computer. Lorenz curve-knowledge

Its origin is as follows: in an experiment in 1963, Lorenz, a meteorologist at MIT, solved the 13 equation simulating the earth's atmosphere with a computer. In order to check the results more carefully, Lorenz rounded off the fourth decimal place of the initial input data in a scientific calculation. He took out an intermediate solution of 0.506, improved the accuracy to 0.506 127 and sent it back. And when he drank a cup of coffee and came back to see it, he was surprised: there was a little difference, but the calculation results before and after deviated from 108 thousand miles! Results the similarity between the two curves disappeared completely. After checking again, I found that there was nothing wrong with the computer. Lorenz found that because the error will increase exponentially, in this case, a small error has caused great consequences as it goes on. Later, Lorenz raised this question in a speech. He believes that in the process of atmospheric movement, even if all kinds of errors and uncertainties are small, it is possible to accumulate the results in the process and gradually enlarge them to form a huge atmospheric movement. So Lorenz decided that he had discovered a new phenomenon: the result of the development of things was extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. He later identified this as "extreme instability to the initial value", namely "chaos", also known as "butterfly effect". Since then, the so-called "butterfly effect" has spread like wildfire.

Edit the internal mechanism of this paragraph

The so-called complex system refers to a system that is nonlinear and exhibits chaotic phenomena or behaviors under critical conditions. The dynamic equation of nonlinear system contains nonlinear terms, which is a mathematical description of the cross-coupling mechanism of multiple factors in nonlinear system. It is precisely because of this "multi-factor cross-coupling mechanism" that the initial sensitivity of complex systems, that is, butterfly effect, leads to the chaotic behavior of complex systems. At present, the research of nonlinear science and chaotic science is in the ascendant, which indicates that human understanding of natural and social phenomena is transitioning and evolving to a deeper and more complex stage. From a derogatory point of view, the butterfly effect often gives people a sense of crisis that the future behavior is unpredictable, but from a positive point of view, the butterfly effect makes it possible for us to "be cautious and make a thousand miles a day" and "control the chaos" at a small cost and gain great "blessing" in the future. The butterfly effect is a metaphor, not a hurricane caused by butterflies. The reason why the butterfly effect is fascinating, gripping and thought-provoking lies not only in its bold imagination and charming aesthetic color, but also in its profound scientific connotation and inherent philosophical charm. Chaos theory holds that in a chaotic system, very small changes in initial conditions, after constant amplification, will cause great differences in its future state. We can use a folk song circulating in the west to illustrate this image. This ballad says: I lost a nail and broke a shoe; Broke a shoe and a horse; Fold a horse and hurt a knight; Wounded a knight and lost a battle; Lost a battle and lost an empire. Whether a nail on the horseshoe will be lost is a very small change in the initial conditions, but its "long-term" effect is the fundamental difference between the life and death of an empire. This is the so-called "butterfly effect" in the field of military politics. It's a little incredible, but it can really cause such bad consequences. A wise leader must prevent procrastination, but seemingly trivial things may lead to disintegration within the collective. Is it too late to regret at that time? A suspension bridge across a deep valley usually begins with a small stone tied to a thin line. The "butterfly effect" theory proves China's interpretation of The Book of Rites more than 300 years ago by empirical means: "The Book of Changes says,' A gentleman is cautious at the beginning, but a tiny difference makes a thousand miles wrong.' "Shu Wei Le Zhi": "Only the spirit is completely empty, and the millet is big and small, and the difference is thousands of miles." This shows that perception is more direct than cognition, its so-called attractor is the role of meta-external field in mixed-element field theory, and its chaotic nonlinear theory is the absolute counting time system of matter-element independence in mixed-element field theory. Research significance of butterfly effect: the choice between chaos and non-chaos, logical deduction system and fault is the significance of our concern about butterfly effect. In ancient China, there was also a school that paid attention to the problem of good beginning and good ending, that is, it was good at developing a system and ending it, and studied methodology for this purpose. Furthermore, it can be said that the essence of butterfly effect is a methodology, which recognizes the boundary of the system and is a method to explore the finiteness of the universe based on the infinite theory of the universe. China's "Everything is wrong, I am old" used to be like a hairpin bend, which frightened Ji Zi. I think that elephant chopsticks will not be added to the earth, but will be rhinoceros jade cups. Like a jade cup, it must be like a leopard tire. Like a leopard's fetus, it must be eaten under a hut without short clothes and brown clothes, so it will be decorated with nine heavy clothes and a wide room platform. I am afraid of his death, so I am afraid of his beginning. After living for five years, I became a meat garden, set up a barbecued pot, climbed to a bad place, and died near the wine pool. Therefore, Ji Zi knew the disaster of the world when he saw the elephant chopsticks, so he said, "Seeing small is light. Wang Shuji of Shang and Zhou Dynasties was very scared when he saw Zhou Wang using ivory chopsticks, because with ivory chopsticks, the cup became a rhinoceros jade cup. With ivory chopsticks, rhinoceros jade cup will not eat coarse bean soup, but will eat beef, elephant meat, leopard meat, fetal meat and other exquisite foods. Eating meat such as beef, leopard meat and fetal meat won't be eaten in a hut in short coarse cloth, but in a gorgeous palace in a lot of fine cloth. Ji Zi is afraid of her national subjugation. This effect shows that the result of the development of things is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, and the smallest deviation of the initial conditions will cause great differences in the results. For example, there is chaos in celestial motion; The oscillation of electricity, light and sound waves will suddenly fall into chaos; The geomagnetic field changed direction 16 times in 4 million years, also because of chaos. Even human beings are inherently nonlinear: contrary to traditional thinking, the EEG and heartbeat of healthy people are not regular, but chaotic, and chaos is the expression of vitality. Chaotic systems respond faster to external stimuli than non-chaotic systems. It can be seen that nonlinearity is around us and can't be hidden. Scientists' definition of chaos is that chaos refers to the seemingly random irregular motion that occurs in a deterministic system, but the behavior of the system described by deterministic theory has the characteristics of uncertainty-unrepeatable and unpredictable, which is the chaotic phenomenon. Further research shows that chaos is an inherent characteristic of nonlinear dynamic systems and a common phenomenon in nonlinear systems. Newton's deterministic theory can handle most linear systems perfectly, and most linear systems are simplified from nonlinear systems. Therefore, chaos is ubiquitous in real life and practical engineering and technical problems. Since Lorenz first discovered chaos, the research on chaos has been concerned by scientists, sociologists and humanists. Studying chaos is actually looking for order in disorder, but there are still too many unpredictable and chaotic things in today's world, and this topic will definitely become a human problem. Here, due to the limited knowledge, we only made a very superficial introduction, hoping that more people can walk into the door of chaos and see the world with deeper eyes. Maybe we can devote ourselves to this research in the future.

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Predictors can see this chaotic effect by inputting slightly different numbers into the computer and forecasting again. In the first few days, the content of the alternative forecast will be almost identical; But after a week, it looks very different (unless it is in an unusually stable weather type). No matter how accurate these formulas are, no matter how good the data you enter, subtle influences that we don't notice after one week may have a major impact on the results. Lorenz called it the "butterfly effect". He assumed that a butterfly flapping its wings in the Brazilian jungle would stir up a small whirlwind in the atmosphere, which might change the weather in London in a few months.

For example, edit this paragraph

In 2003, a suspected case of mad cow disease was found in the United States, which immediately brought a devastating hurricane to the newly recovered American economy. It was the unfortunate mad cow that flapped the butterfly's wings. First, the US beef industry, with a total output value of US$ 654.38+0.75 billion and employment of 654.38+0.4 million, was hit. As the main feed source of cattle owners, the American corn and soybean industries have also been affected, and their futures prices have shown a downward trend. However, in the end, the decline of American consumers' confidence in beef products contributed to the biggest loss of the "mad cow disease hurricane". In today's globalization, this panic not only caused the depression of domestic catering enterprises in the United States, but also spread to the whole world. At least 1 1 countries have declared an emergency ban on the import of American beef, and even the residents in China and Guangdong, who are far away from the other side of the ocean, stay away from western-style restaurants. This is reminiscent of bird flu at that time. Avian influenza, which was first discovered in individual countries, quickly spread all over the world. Even in areas or countries where bird flu has not been found, people will "talk about the color change of chickens." For another example, can you imagine the relationship between smoking in an American and inflation in China? Suppose there is a person smoking in the United States now, accidentally throwing an unlit cigarette butt on the bed, and then going out to work. After about 20 minutes, cigarette butts slowly ignited the sheets, and the fire became bigger and bigger, gradually spreading to his neighbors, triggering a series of gas tank explosions. At this time, Americans have been terrified of the "terrorist attack", but the perpetrator (the person who threw the cigarette butt) forgot that he had thrown the cigarette butt. Because he could not find the reason at the moment, he was temporarily classified as a "terrorist attack". In this way, frightened people sold their stocks in succession, causing the stock market to plummet. People's declining consumer confidence has affected the entire American economy and eventually led to the depreciation of the US dollar. As the dollar continues to depreciate, the price of basic raw materials denominated in dollars rises, and the price of RMB linked to the dollar also rises accordingly. Therefore, the rising commodity prices based on raw materials triggered the cost-driven inflation in China. This example is exaggerated just to show that when we explain an economic phenomenon, if we can't find the answer from the conventional analysis, we must consider those seemingly insignificant factors. However, there are too many such factors, which are too unpredictable, which is why economists always find it difficult to accurately predict specific economic indexes. But it is this unpredictability that creates a changeable and colorful world. Butterflies flapping their wings can cause tornadoes, so what's impossible? "Nothing is impossible", which is probably the biggest inspiration from the "butterfly effect". The Asian financial crisis of 65438-0998 and the American stock market storm are actually "butterfly effects" in economic operation; The "El Nino" phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean from 65438 to 0998 is the "butterfly effect" caused by atmospheric movement. The "butterfly effect" is the expression of chaotic motion. When we further study life phenomena, they are neither completely periodic nor completely random. They are all "frequency-locked" to natural periodic processes (season, day and night, etc.). ) and maintain the inherent "autonomous" nature. Butterfly effect is also a concept in chaos theory. It refers to a dependence on the sensitivity of initial conditions: the small difference at the input end will be quickly amplified to the overwhelming difference at the output end, just like a butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing today, which may trigger a series of events in the atmosphere, thus leading to a storm in new york in a month. 1. If a very small water drop rolls down a snow slope, it will become bigger and bigger. 2. Lorenz inputs two initial conditions with a difference of only 0.000 1 into a mathematical equation, and the calculated two curves will soon go their separate ways. The "butterfly effect" of enlightenment is chaotic from the beginning, and it is produced in inaccuracy or imprecision, so anything can happen. The complex chain effect of "butterfly effect" may happen to us every day. We can't go back to the past to change our past and change our future. What we need is to correctly grasp our present. Perhaps, the future results will be better, and you may not find it in a short time if you take a wrong step, but it is not just your future, but more in a few decades. This is a few paragraphs from an article I read in Youth Digest in the library this morning. It's too long. I picked a few paragraphs and copied them down. Because many friends around me (including myself) have been confused, confused, overwhelmed and upset on the road recently. So I think we are always making decisions and changing our decisions. Because we are changing and maturing, we constantly adjust and calibrate our efforts or goals. Knowing the "butterfly effect", do we understand that people should live actively and start from every little thing? I also want to repeat a sentence in the article: a good micro-mechanism will have a sensational effect or be called a "revolution" after a period of hard work as long as it is guided correctly. Sometimes it is not easy to make a decision, but it is important to take the first step. And you make many seemingly meaningless decisions every day, but one of your decisions can change your life one day. It's good to see a passage today: don't be bound by other people's judgment. Follow your passion and your heart, and they will take you where you want to go. I hope it will be enlightening. The core idea of practical application: seemingly insignificant small changes can have a subtle influence on society in some way, and even affect the normal operation of the whole social system. Details determine success or failure. Application Tip: Pay attention to details, prevent delays, pay attention to correlation and control the overall situation. Application: After learning everything, you can deeply understand and effectively solve the following problems: 1, product quality 2, work procedure 3, work attitude 4, key details 5, personal growth 6, learning path 6.

Edit other relevant paragraphs.

chaos theory

Butterfly effect is a concept in chaos theory. It refers to a dependence on the sensitivity of initial conditions: small differences at the input end will be quickly amplified to the output end, and the butterfly effect can be seen everywhere in economic life. Butterfly effect, also known as billiards effect, is a figurative term that chaotic systems are extremely sensitive to initial values, and it is also the direct cause of chaotic phenomena in nonlinear systems under certain conditions (which can be called critical conditions or threshold conditions).

genetics

Butterfly effect is a phenomenon in genetic theory. Modern medicine has proved that all diseases are related to genes. Disease susceptibility genes are closely related to the occurrence of diseases. People with disease susceptibility genes have a significantly higher risk of illness than normal people without taking targeted preventive measures. Therefore, using molecular technology to detect whether human cells contain a certain disease susceptibility gene can evaluate the risk of individual illness, thus providing opportunities for early intervention in disease prevention. Gene detection is a molecular detection technology to detect disease-related (susceptible) genes in human cells. Advanced modern medical technology can extend our life span by five years. Active and effective preventive measures can prolong our life span by 25 years.