The Central Bank released its July financial statistics report. RMB loans increased by 1.45 trillion yuan in July, an increase of 627.8 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. At the end of July, the growth rate of broad money (M2) also rebounded significantly, with the balance of M2 reaching 177.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the end of last month.

It is generally believed in the industry that the unexpected growth of RMB credit indicates that banks’ lending capabilities and willingness have increased, while the optimization of the credit structure is conducive to the continued expansion of domestic demand.

According to E Yongjian, chief financial analyst at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, the main reason for new loans exceeding expectations is policy promotion. The central bank has increased capital investment to provide liquidity support to banks, and at the same time supports banks to increase their liquidity. Investment in specific areas such as small businesses and infrastructure. Overall, driven by policies, financing growth has picked up, and support for the real economy has increased.

The increase in the scale of social financing in July was 1.04 trillion yuan, M2 growth rebounded

Data shows that the increase in the scale of social financing in July was 1.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.04 trillion yuan. 124.2 billion yuan less.

Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.29 trillion yuan that month, an increase of 370.9 billion yuan year-on-year; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy decreased by RMB 77.3 billion, an increase of 56 billion yuan year-on-year. .

Data pointed out that entrusted loans decreased by 95 billion yuan, a decrease of 111.3 billion yuan year-on-year; trust loans decreased by 119.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 242.4 billion yuan year-on-year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 274.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 274.4 billion yuan. An increase of 70.7 billion yuan; net corporate bond financing was 223.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.4 billion yuan year-on-year; domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 17.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.1 billion yuan year-on-year.

The central bank stated that starting from July 2018, the People's Bank of China has improved the statistical method of social financing scale and included "asset-backed securities of deposit-taking financial institutions" and "loan write-off" into the statistics of social financing scale. Reflected under "Financing".

In terms of M2, data show that at the end of July, its balance was 177.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year; narrow currency ( The balance of M1) was 53.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and the growth rate was 1.5 and 10.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year respectively.

In addition, data showed that RMB loans increased by 1.45 trillion yuan in July, an increase of 627.8 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sectors, loans to the household sector increased by 634.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 176.8 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 457.6 billion yuan; loans to non-financial enterprises and institutions and groups increased by 650.1 billion yuan.

Experts: Financial support for the real economy has increased

According to China Securities Journal, industry experts said that with the implementation of new asset management regulations and new bank financial management regulations, the future growth rate of social financing is expected to Stay steady. At the same time, the rebound in M2 growth is expected to continue.

Li Chao, chief macro researcher at Huatai Securities, said that the main reason why new social financing has not rebounded based on the slight increase in credit is that the on-balance sheet credit adjustment flexibility and execution are strong, while off-balance sheet recovery requires a period of time. Fixed time lag.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that the stock of social financing increased by 10.3% year-on-year, indicating that it was still dragged down by the decline in off-balance sheet financing such as entrusted loans and trusts. With the new regulations on asset management and bank wealth management With the implementation of new regulations, changes in off-balance sheet financing have tended to slow down, which is conducive to maintaining a stable growth rate in social financing.

Another thing that has attracted widespread attention is the rebound in M2 growth. At the end of July, M2 growth rebounded by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month. According to the Economic Daily, Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the M2 growth rate bottomed out and rebounded, reflecting that the current market liquidity is generally abundant, market interest rates have fallen, bank credit has grown beyond expectations, deposit derivative effects have increased, and market liquidity conditions have improved.

Li Chao believes that the main reason why the growth rate of social financing has not rebounded based on the slight increase in credit is that the flexibility and execution of on-balance sheet credit adjustments are strong, while the recovery of off-balance sheet financing requires a certain amount of time. time.

Wen Bin also said that the increase in social financing scale in July was 1.04 trillion yuan, indicating that it was still dragged down by the decline in off-balance sheet financing such as entrusted loans and trusts. On July 20, the "Notice on Matters Concerning Further Clarifying the Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions" was implemented, clarifying the policy details, enhancing operability, enhancing policy certainty, and giving the market a "reassurance." . With the implementation of new regulations on asset management and new bank financial management regulations, changes in off-balance sheet financing have tended to slow down, which will help maintain a stable growth rate in the scale of social financing.