Comprehensive Department of People's Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of Commerce

People's Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute

1.20 10 China's foreign trade resumed rapidly, and the "Eleventh Five-Year" foreign trade development plan was successfully realized.

20 10 With the gradual recovery of the world economy, the recovery of the international market demand, the consolidation of the domestic economy, the continuous emergence of the effects of policies to stabilize external demand and expand imports, and the further enhancement of the competitiveness of enterprises, China's foreign trade has achieved rapid growth, the import and export have recovered to the pre-crisis level and reached a record high, the structure has been further optimized, the trade balance has been continuously improved, and the objectives of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" foreign trade development plan have been successfully achieved.

1. Import and export achieved rapid recovery growth, and the foreign trade surplus continued to decline.

In 20 10, China's total import and export volume was 2,972.76 billion US dollars, up 34.7% year-on-year. Among them, the export was 65.438+0.57793 billion US dollars, an increase of 365.438+0.3%; Imports reached US$ 654.38+039.483 billion, an increase of 38.7%. Import and export, export and import increased by 16%, 10.3% and 23.2% respectively compared with 2008. As the growth rate of imports is faster than that of exports, imports and exports tend to be balanced. The annual trade surplus was 183 1 billion USD, down 6.4% from 2009 and 38.6% from 2008. This is the second consecutive year after the foreign trade surplus reached a record high in 2008, and the contradiction of excessive foreign trade surplus has been further alleviated.

Figure 1 20 10 Monthly Growth of China's Foreign Trade

Source: China Customs Statistics.

2. The export of mechanical and electrical products remained stable, and the export of labor-intensive products grew well.

In 20 10, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 933.43 billion US dollars, up 30.9% year-on-year; The export of high-tech products was 492.465438 billion US dollars, an increase of 30.7%. The export of ships and auto parts maintained rapid growth, with the export of ships increasing by 44.5% and the export of auto parts increasing by 44. 1%. The total export value of textiles, clothing, footwear, furniture, luggage and toys was 303.24 billion US dollars, up by 25.9%. Among them, textile exports amounted to US$ 77.05 billion, up 28.4% year-on-year; Clothing exports reached $654.38+029.48 billion, an increase of 20.9%; Footwear exports reached US$ 35.63 billion, up by 27.1%; Furniture exports reached $32.99 billion, an increase of 30.3%.

3. The import price of resource products rose in an all-round way, and the import of mechanical and electrical products increased rapidly.

Affected by the slowdown of domestic investment and other factors, the import growth rate of energy resources products has gradually declined, but the import volume has continued to expand due to the continuous increase in international market prices. The annual import of iron ore decreased by 1.4%, while the import value increased by 58.4%. Crude oil imports increased by 17.5%, and imports increased by 51.4%; Imports of primary shape plastics increased by 0.4% and imports increased by 25.2%; Soybean imports increased by 28.8% and imports increased by 33.5%. The rebound in international market demand has driven the steady growth of processing trade imports. Coupled with the increasing domestic final demand, the import of mechanical and electrical products reached $6603 1 billion, an increase of 34.4%, and the import of high-tech products reached $41267 million, an increase of 33.2%.

4. The mode of trade has been further optimized, and private enterprises have performed better than the whole.

From the perspective of trade mode, as import and export enterprises accelerate the transformation of growth mode and increase the proportion of independent marketing, general trade grows faster than processing trade. General trade exports and imports increased by 36.0% and 43.7% respectively, while processing trade exports and imports increased by 26.2% and 29.5% respectively. From the perspective of business entities, the import and export scale of foreign-invested enterprises still ranks first, with exports increasing by 28.3% and imports increasing by 35.3%. The export of state-owned enterprises increased by 22.7%, and the import increased by 34.3%; Private enterprises continued to show strong vitality, with exports increasing by 42.2% and imports increasing by 56.6%. The scale of import and export has surpassed that of state-owned enterprises.

Table 1 20 10 China's Import and Export by Trade Mode and Enterprise Nature

Source: China Customs Statistics.

Europe, America and Japan are still major trading partners, with strong trade growth with emerging market countries.

In 20 10, EU, USA and Japan remained the top three trading partners of China. The trade volume between China and Europe reached US$ 4,797.1billion, an increase of 365.438+0.8%; The trade volume between China and the United States was US$ 385.34 billion, up by 29.2%. The trade volume between China and Japan was US$ 297.77 billion, up by 30.2%. During the same period, China's trade with emerging economies and developing countries increased significantly. Imports and exports to ASEAN reached US$ 292.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%; Imports and exports to Brazil reached US$ 62.55 billion, an increase of 47.5%; Import and export to India was 6010.76 billion USD, an increase of 42.4%; Imports and exports to Russia reached US$ 55.45 billion, up by 43. 1%.

Table 2 Trade between China and its major trading partners in 2010

Source: China Customs Statistics.

20 10 China's foreign trade rebounded rapidly, marking the successful completion of the "Eleventh Five-Year" foreign trade development plan. In the early period of the 11th Five-Year Plan, China's foreign trade continued to grow rapidly. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China's import and export fell sharply. Faced with this severe and complicated situation, the China Municipal Government timely issued a series of policies and measures to stabilize external demand, actively expanded domestic demand, encouraged the increase of imports, effectively curbed the continuous sharp decline in foreign trade, achieved a rapid recovery in 20 10, withstood the severe test of the international financial crisis, and achieved new development in adversity. In the past five years, the total import and export volume has increased by 15.9% annually, which is higher than the growth rate of world trade in the same period. Compared with the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, China's export jumped from the third place in the world to the first place, and its global share rose from 7.3% to 10.4%. Imports rose from the third place to the second place in the world, which effectively promoted the recovery of the world economy and trade. The trade imbalance has improved, and the ratio of foreign trade surplus to GDP has dropped from 7.6% at the peak in 2007 to 3. 1%. The foreign trade structure continued to be optimized, and the quality and efficiency of development were further improved. In 20 10, the proportion of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products in total exports increased by 3.2 and 2.6 percentage points respectively compared with the end of the tenth five-year plan. The effect of market diversification is obvious. In 20 10, the proportion of exports to developing countries increased from 42.7% at the end of the tenth five-year plan to 48.3%. The growth rate of import and export in the central and western regions is higher than that in the eastern region. In 20 10, the proportion of central and western regions' exports to the national exports increased by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively compared with the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan.

2.20 1 1 In the first quarter, China's foreign trade development got off to a good start and maintained a rapid growth momentum on the whole.

Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has recovered slowly, the international market demand has continued to pick up, the import and export trade has maintained a rapid growth momentum, the structure has been further optimized, and the balance has been further improved. The main features are:

1. The import and export volume rose, and there was a small deficit in the quarter.

In the first quarter, China's total import and export volume reached $8003 1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.5%. Exports reached US$ 399.64 billion, up by 26.5%, of which the volume increased by 15.5% and the price increased by 9.5%. Imports reached US$ 400.66 billion, and the quarterly scale reached a record high, with an increase of 32.6%, of which the volume increased by 16. 1% and the price increased by 14.2%. As the growth rate of imports is faster than that of exports, the accumulated trade deficit is $6543.8+$200 million, which is the first quarterly deficit in the past six years.

Table 3 Import and Export of China in the First Quarter of 2009 -20 1 1

Note: There are some errors in the number of months and quarters counted by the customs.

Source: China Customs Statistics.

2. The export of major commodities grew steadily, and the import price of bulk commodities rose sharply.

In the first quarter, the exports of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products were $232.03 billion and11863 million respectively, up by 22.8% and 19.8% respectively. Among mechanical and electrical products, the export of electrical and electronic products was 96.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.8%; The export of machinery and equipment was $74.69 billion, up by 15.5%. Among labor-intensive products, textile exports increased by 32.7%, clothing exports increased by 18.4%, footwear exports increased by 210.6%, and furniture exports increased by 19.3%. At the same time, the import of most bulk commodities kept rising in volume and price, which became the main force to promote import growth. Iron ore imports increased by 14.4%, and the price increased by 59.5%. Crude oil imports increased by 1 1.9%, and the price rose by 24.3%; The import volume of refined oil increased by 27.7%, and the price rose by 18.8%. The total import volume of these three products increased by 27.5 billion US dollars compared with the same period of last year, of which the import increase directly caused by price increase was 654.38+07.7 billion US dollars.

Table 4 20 1 1 value of key export commodities in China in the first quarter

Note: Mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products include some overlapping goods.

Source: China Customs Statistics.

3. General trade grew rapidly, and the growth rate of import and export of private enterprises continued to lead.

In the first quarter, the import and export of general trade was US$ 465,438+US$ 07.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, which was 5.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total import and export. Among them, exports increased by 3 1.7% and imports increased by 37.4%. The import and export of processing trade was US$ 2,965,438 +0.9 1 billion, up by 2 1.4%. Among them, exports increased by 2 1.7% and imports increased by 20.9%. The import and export of private enterprises was $2 1 1.93 billion, an increase of 4 1.0%, which was higher than the growth rate of total import and export1.5 percentage points. Among them, the export was 65.438+024.53 billion US dollars, an increase of 35.4%; Imports reached US$ 87.4 billion, up by 49.9%; The proportion of exports and imports increased by 2.2 and 2.5 percentage points respectively. The import and export of foreign-invested enterprises was US$ 415.42 billion, up by 24.9%, of which exports increased by 24.6% and imports increased by 25.2%. The import and export of state-owned enterprises was172.95 billion US dollars, up by 27.8%, of which exports increased by 16.4% and imports increased by 34.5%.

Table 5 20 1 1 China's import and export trade modes and business entities in the first quarter

Source: China Customs Statistics.

4. The share of exports to Europe and the United States declined, and trade with some emerging markets increased rapidly.

In the first quarter, the imbalance between China's imports and exports to major developed countries tended to improve. Imports and exports to the EU amounted to US$ 65.438+02.370 billion, an increase of 22.0% over the previous year, of which exports increased by 654.38+07.2% and imports increased by 30.6%. Imports and exports to the United States reached US$ 97.65 billion, up by 25.0%, of which exports increased by 2 1.4% and imports increased by 33.3%. Imports and exports to Japan reached US$ 80.78 billion, up by 27. 1%, of which exports increased by 28. 1% and imports increased by 26.4%. Trade with emerging markets and developing countries continues to show great growth potential. Imports and exports to ASEAN reached US$ 79.34 billion, up by 26.1%; Import and export to India was $6010.42 billion, an increase of 24.6%; Imports and exports to Brazil, Russia and South Africa increased by 57.7%, 34.2% and 107. 1% respectively.

Table 6 20 1 1 China's trade with major trading partners in the first quarter

Source: China Customs Statistics.

Guangdong and Shandong have made great contributions to exports, and the growth rate of import and export in the central and western regions is faster than that in the whole country.

In the first quarter, exports from the eastern region increased by 25.5%. Among them, the export of Guangdong and Shandong increased rapidly, by 33.9% and 32% respectively, accounting for 42.9% of the national increase, driving the national export growth by 1 1.3 percentage points. The export of central and western regions increased by 42% and 29.9% respectively, which was higher than the national 15.5 and 3.4 percentage points. Imports increased by 45.4% and 43.8% respectively, which was higher than the national growth rate of 12.8 and 1 1.2 percentage points.

It should be noted that the deficit of foreign trade in the first quarter was $6543.8+$200 million, which occurred when the overall export growth was relatively normal and the import price of bulk commodities soared. It does not mean that the basic pattern of China's foreign trade has changed.

Third, 20 1 1 The overall foreign trade development environment has improved, but there are still many uncertainties.

Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has continued to recover, and the domestic economy has made a good start and its operation is basically stable. Judging from the current situation, with the sustained recovery of the world economy, the overall external market tends to improve, and corporate orders have increased. However, the import and export situation is still complicated, and there are many uncertain factors affecting the stable development of foreign trade. In particular, the prices of raw materials and labor wages continue to rise sharply, which will crowd out the profits of enterprises to varying degrees, and the cost pressure faced by small and medium-sized enterprises is even greater.

(1) Externally, the world economy is expected to continue to grow, but the recovery process is still difficult and tortuous. The pace of economic recovery in the United States is accelerating, the economic situation in Germany and France, the core countries in Europe, continues to improve, and emerging economies will continue to maintain rapid growth. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will grow by 4.4% in 20 1 1 year. Although it is slower than the growth rate of 5.0% in last year, considering the high base of last year, it is still a relatively fast growth rate. Among them, the economy of developed countries will grow by 2.4%; The economy of developing countries will grow by 6.5%. At the same time, we should also see that the deep-seated contradictions of the international financial crisis have not been effectively resolved, and some internal contradictions have made new progress. The healthy and stable recovery of the world economy faces many variables.

First, inflation is spreading from emerging economies to developed economies. In February, consumer prices in India, Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam rose by 8.3%, 9.5%, 6%, 4.5%, 6.8% and 12.3% respectively, while those in the United States and Britain rose by 2. 1% and 4.4% respectively. The euro zone reached 2.6% in March, exceeding the control target of 2% for four consecutive months. In this situation, emerging economies have adopted and will further adopt austerity policies, the euro zone has started to raise interest rates, and the United States may withdraw from the stimulus policy ahead of schedule. If the inflation situation continues to intensify, it will inevitably affect the process of world economic recovery.

Second, the sovereign debt crisis is still serious. Although the EU Spring Summit adopted a comprehensive plan to deal with the debt crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis has not been effectively alleviated. Portugal has applied for assistance from the European Union, and the euro zone began to raise interest rates, which may aggravate the European sovereign debt crisis and increase the sovereign debt risks of Spain and other countries. The budget deficit of the US government is huge, the debt burden is getting heavier and heavier, and the shadow of the financial crisis is always lingering.

Third, international commodity prices are running at a high level. Since the beginning of this year, with the slow recovery of the world economy, the demand for commodities in the international market has increased, the global liquidity has been seriously excessive, and the US dollar has continued to fall. Driven by speculation and risk aversion, huge amounts of money poured into the commodity market, which led to the continuous rise of international commodity prices. On April 15, new york crude oil futures price reached 109.7 USD/barrel, up by 20% compared with the end of last year; The prices of cotton, corn and tin in the international market rose by 23.3%, 18.2% and 23. 1% respectively. At present, the factors leading to high commodity prices have not been alleviated, and some factors are still strengthening, which may push the international commodity prices to continue to rise or fluctuate repeatedly at high levels. In particular, the continuing turmoil in the Middle East will not only seriously interfere with local economic development, but will also continue to push up international oil prices.

Fourth, the earthquake in Japan has added variables to the global economic recovery. The earthquake in Japan will not only affect its own economic trend, but also have a great impact on the recovery of the world economy. Due to the severe impact on the global supply chain, the normal production and operation of related enterprises such as automobiles and electronic information products have been greatly affected. The nuclear accident has not been effectively controlled, and the subsequent impact is unpredictable.

Against the background of the slow recovery of the world economy and the weakening or even disappearance of the replenishment effect last year, it is difficult for international trade to increase substantially. At the same time, many countries pay more attention to easing domestic pressure through exports, with obvious tendency of self-care, rising protectionism, stagnant World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha negotiations, and the trade friction situation remains severe and complicated. This will affect the future development of international trade. According to the forecast of WTO, the growth rate of world trade in 20 1 1 year will slow down from 14.5% in the previous year to 6.5%. Among them, developed economies grew by 4.5%, while developing countries and CIS grew by 9.5%.

(2) Domestically, the economy continues to maintain a steady and rapid growth trend, but some long-term contradictions and short-term problems are superimposed, and foreign trade development still faces many difficulties and problems. The main reason is that the factor cost has entered a period of concentrated rise, and the business pressure of enterprises has continued to increase. First, the price of raw materials continues to rise. Driven by the continuous rise in international commodity prices, the prices of domestic means of production continued to rise in the first quarter. The means of production in circulation increased by 1 1.2% year-on-year, of which the price of refined oil increased by 17.8%, steel increased by 17.6%, nonferrous metals increased by 10.3% and chemicals increased by 8.8%. The purchase price of industrial producers increased by 10.2% year-on-year. Second, labor wages continued to grow. On the basis of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) raising the minimum wage last year, another 12 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) continue to raise the minimum wage this year, with the range of 20-25%. The difficulty in recruiting workers and the increase in labor costs have become prominent problems that currently plague the operation of enterprises. Third, the financing cost has increased. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has raised interest rates twice and the deposit reserve ratio four times. Some enterprises report tight liquidity and increased financing costs. In addition, the pressure of RMB appreciation has also affected the foreign orders of enterprises to some extent.

Figure 2010-2011Changes of the minimum wage in some cities in eastern China.

Source: Local government website.

Figure 3 The trend of the exchange rate of the US dollar against RMB since 2011.

Source: Website of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center.

For the factor cost to enter a concentrated rising period, we must treat it objectively and comprehensively. On the one hand, with the sustained and rapid economic development, the rising factor cost is an inevitable trend. This may be superimposed with other factors in the short term, which will affect the production and operation of enterprises and international competitiveness to a certain extent, and affect the steady and rapid development of foreign trade. At the same time, we should also see that gradually rationalizing domestic factor prices is in line with the requirements of economic and social development, which is conducive to accelerating economic restructuring and the transformation of development mode, and is conducive to achieving sustainable development. This stage is insurmountable. On the other hand, some enterprises are affected by the rising factor cost, and their operating pressure is obviously increased. The fundamental reason lies in the low technology content, low added value, rising digestion cost and weak bargaining power. This requires enterprises to adapt to this changing trend, not by preferential policies to survive, but by enhancing innovation ability, adjusting product structure, enhancing core competitiveness, trying to resolve the pressure brought by rising costs, transforming this pressure into the driving force for transformation, and realizing new development in adjustment.

(3) We should not only maintain the steady growth of foreign trade, but also accelerate the transformation of foreign trade development mode.

Generally speaking, 20 1 1 China has many favorable conditions for its foreign trade development. The slow recovery of the world economy, especially the rapid growth of emerging economies, will bring more demand space, but it also faces many uncertainties, difficulties and problems. Considering various factors, it is predicted that China's foreign trade will continue to develop steadily in 20 1 1 year, but the growth rate may be slightly lower than last year; Under the combined effect of increasing domestic demand, expanding import policy support and rising commodity prices in the international market, it is expected that imports will continue to grow faster than exports and the trade balance will be further improved.

In view of the complicated situation at home and abroad, we must focus on maintaining the steady growth of foreign trade and optimizing the import and export structure. On the one hand, we should maintain the basic stability of foreign trade policies, continue to make good use of effective policies such as export credit insurance, export tax rebate and export credit, give full play to the driving role of "bringing in" and "going out" in expanding exports, pay special attention to improving the financing conditions of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises, help enterprises solve practical difficulties in time, and strive to create a good environment for the stable development of foreign trade. On the other hand, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of foreign trade development mode, adhere to science and technology to promote trade, win quality and diversify the market, actively promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, encourage enterprises to develop R&D design, independent brands and overseas marketing channels, strive for new advantages in participating in international competition and cooperation, and comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of foreign trade.