Under a brief analysis, there are seven major reasons

Reason 1: Oil depletion theory

Since 2002, oil prices have begun to trend upward. "Things are rare and expensive" seems to be generally considered to be the fundamental reason for the high price of oil.

When will the oil run out? There has always been discussion on this issue. First, the amount of oil buried and the number of years it can be recovered vary depending on the study data source. At the end of November 2007, the Petroleum and Mining Alliance issued a warning that "the world's produced oil will be exhausted in 68 years." Masao Ariga of the Japan Petroleum Institute believes that "there are still future types of (traditional fuel) crude oil." It can be mined for 60 years, and including oil sand (sandstone containing crude oil) and oil shell (accumulation rock containing crude oil) that are not yet available (new fuels), it can be used for more than 200 years. "Secondly, the amount of oil buried. There will also be an increase over the years. Data show that the world's proven oil volume in 2007 was approximately 115 million barrels, an increase of 10% from the estimated figure in the previous two years.

No matter how far away the day of oil depletion is from reality, the international oil price soared to US$133 per barrel in a short period of time this year, which triggered a new round of energy panic. Many countries have stockpiled oil, fundamentally further pushed up oil prices.

Reason 2: Supply and demand imbalance theory

According to reports, the world consumes 80 million barrels of oil every day (every 7 barrels equals one ton). Among them, the United States is the largest oil consumer, followed by Japan, China, Russia, Germany and South Korea. Currently, about half of the world's oil supply relies on more than 110 large oil fields, and these large oil fields have experienced fifty or sixty years of production, and have basically passed through the "prime" stage of their "life cycle" and entered the stage of stable production and decline. stage. In the eyes of Xu Xiaojie, an international oil and gas investment consultant, the supply and demand relationship of oil is a fundamental issue. He believes that this is also a "basic, long-term and fundamental determinant."

There are many reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand. For a long time, world oil production has grown very slowly, oil supply facilities are very fragile, and very few new large oil fields have been discovered. In addition, insufficient investment in the upstream field of oil and gas, declining production capacity or lagging growth, and declining supply sources are also reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand.

Reason 3: The theory of dollar depreciation

In addition to resource scarcity, artificial speculation has also caused oil prices to soar in the recent past. Among them, the theory of dollar depreciation is the most popular factor.

The United States has an agreement with OPEC to use the US dollar as the settlement currency for oil. In order to ensure that the interests of oil-producing countries are not harmed, today, when the U.S. dollar has depreciated significantly, the only option is to continuously push up oil prices. This is in line with the strategic intentions and interests of the United States.

When international oil prices broke through 110 US dollars, Citigroup energy analyst Tim Evans said that the surge in oil prices had nothing to do with the supply and demand structure, but was due to the depreciation of the US dollar and increasing inflationary pressure. Crude oil futures transactions in the international market are calculated in U.S. dollars, and investors holding other strong currencies buy crude oil futures, causing oil prices to rise.

Shaqib Khalil, rotating chairman of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, also agreed. He also believes that the soaring international oil prices have nothing to do with oil supply and demand, but are caused by the depreciation of the US dollar and market speculation. The continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar provides an opportunity for international speculative money to enter the crude oil and gold futures markets for speculation, causing oil and gold prices to continue to rise.

Reason Four: Speculative Hype Theory

Connie Turner, a senior analyst at Wall Street Strategy Company, pointed out that market speculation is the fundamental reason for the surge in oil prices, and various short-term news It's just a reason to speculate on oil prices. Due to the intervention of funds, the market will amplify any news that may cause oil prices to rise. For example, the reason for the rise in oil prices today may be an unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil commercial inventories, and tomorrow it may be geopolitical issues. His statement is not unreasonable. According to reports, since the beginning of this year, the price of benchmark crude oil futures in the New York market has risen sharply by nearly 40%. In May alone, the price of oil in the New York market increased by 17%. On May 16, the price of oil in New York was US$127. Although it was the price of that day, the July oil futures were traded. This is the same as the oil price in February that "broke over 100" on January 2. Investment forms such as "futures" have obviously had a huge impact on oil prices.

A U.S. Democratic senator said that speculation is extremely unbridled in the futures market, and the daily trading volume in the futures market has exceeded actual demand by more than 20 times. This is also one of the strong evidences for speculators to speculate in futures.

Reason 5: Seasonal regularity theory

Some environmental scientists believe that summer is the peak period for oil consumption. As the northern hemisphere gradually enters summer, production and domestic oil consumption will enter a period of growth. The hurricane season in the United States is from May to November every year. News of the arrival of a hurricane will affect the rise in oil prices, which has become a fixed rule. Experts believe that this also has an impact on the recent surge in oil prices to a certain extent.

Reason six: Geopolitical theory

Former Kuwait Deputy Petroleum Minister Aoun recently made remarks saying that the tense geopolitical situation in the world's major oil-producing regions has driven the recent sharp surge in oil prices in the international market. main reason.

In an interview with Kuwait News Agency, Aoun said that geopolitical tensions between Iraq, Iran and Nigeria had stimulated the rise in oil prices.

The distribution of oil resources and reserves is extremely uneven. At present, the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and other Middle East countries account for more than 60% of the world's total reserves, while the oil reserves of the Asia-Pacific region are less than 2%. Judging from the three oil crises in history, high oil prices will further aggravate geopolitical risks in the region, such as the Iran-Iraq War in 1978 and the Gulf War in 1990. The fundamental goal was still the competition for oil resources. This has fallen into a vicious cycle. The more geopolitical instability becomes, the more parties are forced to drive up oil prices.

Reason 7: Long and short conspiracy theories

In addition, a conspiracy theory has emerged in Western academic circles, which has also become an explanation for the rise in oil prices. According to analysis, there are two types of conspiracy theories, one is long-term conspiracy theory and the other is short-term conspiracy theory. The long-standing conspiracy theory is that American oil giants actually have very mature energy alternative technology, which is also very cheap after mass production. In fact, when the oil price is US$50 a barrel, this technology can be industrialized. However, in order to safeguard their vested interests, American oil giants are not in a hurry to launch new technologies.

The short-term conspiracy theory is that US President Bush himself is the darling promoted by the American oil group. In order to "repay the favor", the US government intends to push up oil prices. According to this argument, analysts believe that so far, there has not been an absolute shortage of oil, but oil prices have risen exponentially. This is related to the very strange "American phenomenon" in recent years: when oil prices are high, the U.S. government must expand oil Reserves, but sell reserves when oil prices are low. Moreover, when oil prices were high, American oil companies mothballed some oil wells. These reverse operations pointed to the Bush administration.