In recent days, there has been a blowout in COVID-19, with more than 300,000 new cases for several days, and the epidemic situation is almost out of control. What is worrying is that the epidemic in India is far from a turning point, and the surge in cases is likely to continue. In response to the epidemic, many places in India have implemented strict urban closure measures. At the same time, some countries such as the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and France pressed the "pause button" for flights from India. The epidemic in India not only has a serious impact on India's own economy, but also has a big impact on the global economy.
As a developing country with a population second only to China, India has made great achievements in economic development in recent years. In the last decade, India's average annual economic growth rate has reached 7.5%, which is very eye-catching. Not long ago, the World Economic Outlook Report issued by the International Monetary Fund also raised India's economic growth forecast for 20021year to 12.5%. Today, it is not easy for India to achieve this goal. Small and medium-sized enterprises are most affected by the epidemic. According to statistics, the total number of employees of small and medium-sized enterprises in India is 1. 1 billion, which is the second largest employment sector after agriculture, contributing 30% of GDP and 40% of exports. Obviously, the second wave of epidemic is bringing a new blockade, and the longer it takes, the greater the losses of SMEs.
The outbreak of the Indian epidemic again will obviously make foreign investors stop and wait. More importantly, it will also have a great impact on the global value chain and supply chain. At present, India's import and export trade volume ranks in the top ten in the world, of which the total foreign trade in 20 19 reached 808 billion US dollars, which declined in 2020 due to the epidemic. In terms of national trade, China will once again become India's largest trading partner in 2020, with a two-way trade volume of US$ 77.7 billion, of which the total import from China is US$ 58.7 billion. The United States is India's second largest trading partner with a bilateral trade volume of $75.9 billion.
From the perspective of industrial chain supply chain, Indian industrial chain is not as complete as China, but it can also be called a "resource power" and a "manufacturing power". Its main export products include petroleum products, diamonds, medicines, precious metal jewelry and parts, manned motor vehicles and so on. Its imported products include petroleum crude oil, gold, coal and solid fuel, diamonds, liquefied petroleum gas and so on. India is rich in mineral resources such as coal, iron ore, chromite, bauxite, mica and gypsum. Natural graphite and rare earth metal reserves are also very large, ranking the top five in the world. In addition, India is the third largest oil consumer in the world. Due to its blockade policy, the market is worried that crude oil futures prices will fluctuate.
In recent years, some international technology giants such as Apple have set up factories in India, and Tesla also intends to set up factories in India. Take apples for example. In 2020, its business in India achieved a year-on-year growth of more than 60%, and in the last quarter, the year-on-year growth reached an astonishing 65,438+000%. However, after the implementation of strict city closure measures, most enterprises were forced to close their factories, which had a certain impact on the global supply chain. According to the forecast of relevant institutions, the mobile phone shipments in India will plummet in the second quarter of 20021year, and will continue to have an impact in the next two or three quarters. Take the pharmaceutical industry as an example. Apart from the United States, India and China are the two largest raw material supply markets in the world, accounting for about 265,438+0% of the global industrial chain. If the Indian epidemic leads to a shortage of raw materials in India, the prices of related drugs may also rise. India is also a big vaccine producer. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic again, the vaccine export plan may be blocked and priority will be given to meeting the epidemic prevention needs of the country.
In addition, the huge population will also increase India's demand for food in the epidemic. In fact, global food prices have responded to the Indian epidemic. Global food prices continue to rise. According to the data of the Chicago Board of Trade, the prices of major crops such as wheat, soybeans and corn have risen to the highest level in the last eight years.