1. How do commercial banks use foreign exchange?
The foreign exchange businesses that commercial banks can operate include foreign exchange deposits, foreign exchange loans, foreign exchange remittances, international settlements, foreign exchange transactions, foreign exchange settlement and sales businesses, etc.
1. Foreign exchange deposits are foreign exchange spot funds earned by foreign trade enterprises from their import and export business, which are deposited into the National Bank and paid as needed. When an enterprise conducts bank deposit business, it should convert the relevant amount into RMB for accounting purposes, and register the foreign currency amount and conversion rate at the same time. When the amount is converted into RMB for accounting, the conversion rate can be based on the market foreign exchange rate when the business occurs.
Freely convertible foreign exchange funds remitted from abroad, brought in and held by domestic residents can all be used for foreign exchange deposits. Same as RMB deposits, deposits are also divided into time deposits and demand deposits, which will also generate Interest rates on certain currency deposits vary widely between different banks. If individuals apply for foreign exchange deposits, they should pay attention to comparing the interest rate policies of various banks, as well as some preferential activities, as well as the minimum threshold for deposits or participation in activities.
2. Foreign exchange loans are loans issued by Chinese banks to domestic enterprises using foreign exchange funds raised. It is an important business of Bank of China, which specializes in foreign exchange business. The loan targets are enterprises that can generate foreign exchange income, have the ability to repay, and meet the loan conditions. Loans are generally used for technological transformation of enterprises that produce export commodities to enhance their ability to earn foreign exchange from exports. The loan conditions are: (1) The loan project must cost less, have great results, generate high foreign exchange earnings, repay quickly and have good economic benefits; (2) The borrowing unit must have a reliable source of foreign exchange and the ability to repay principal and interest regularly; (3) ) Implementation of domestic supporting projects; (4) The project must be included in the national plan.
The requirements for foreign exchange loans are relatively high. They are generally granted to corporate (public institutions) legal persons or economic entities with foreign exchange payment needs. They will not lend to individuals. The requirements for loan projects are also relatively high. The cost needs to be Low-yield, high-yield projects require borrowers to have reliable sources of foreign exchange and the ability to repay principal and interest on a regular basis, etc.
3. Foreign exchange remittance refers to a settlement business in which a bank, at the request of the remitter, transfers the remitter's funds to the payee through its overseas affiliated bank or agency bank in a certain way.
Domestic cross-border remittances need to be declared, and personal remittances also need to be declared. Remittance purposes such as traveling, studying abroad, and shopping are allowed, but buying houses, funds, insurance, etc. abroad are capital items and are not allowed. The upper limit for domestic individuals to remit overseas is "50,000 US dollars per day", which can be said to be unlimited (there is a limit on foreign exchange settlement and sales). However, if the amount of one remittance is too large or if the remittance is frequent within a few days, it will also be investigated and proof will be required.
4. International settlement is also called "international clearing". Through international currency receipts and payments, claims and debts arising from economic, political and cultural exchanges between countries are settled. Currency receipts and payments caused by international trade and its ancillary expenses are called trade settlement; currency receipts and payments caused by transactions other than trade, such as remittances from overseas residents, labor supply, overseas travel, profit transfer, fund transfer, expenses of overseas institutions, etc., are called currency receipts and payments. Non-trade settlement. Trade settlement is the main content of international settlement. When international receipts and payments are settled directly by transporting currency and metal, it is called cash settlement; when debts are settled by bill transfer and transfer, it is called non-cash settlement or transfer settlement. In the pre-capitalist period, international settlements were mainly conducted through cash settlements.
International settlement (except remittances) and trade financing are mostly services provided to enterprises, which can help enterprises obtain foreign exchange funds more quickly and conveniently to engage in international trade activities. These businesses are also one of the important sources of income for banks, but there are also risks in various aspects such as customers, countries, foreign agents, international markets, and internal operations.
5. Foreign exchange trading is the exchange of one country’s currency with another country’s currency. Unlike other financial markets, the foreign exchange market has no specific location and no central exchange. Instead, transactions are conducted through electronic networks among banks, businesses, and individuals. "Forex trading" is the simultaneous purchase of one currency in a pair of currencies and the sale of the other currency. Forex is traded in currency pairs, such as Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) or U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).
6. Foreign exchange settlement and sale is the collective term for the settlement and sale of foreign exchange. Bank foreign exchange settlement and sales refer to the foreign exchange settlement and sales business handled by banks for their customers and themselves, including forward foreign exchange settlement and sales performance and option exercise data, excluding inter-bank foreign exchange market transaction data. The statistical time point for bank foreign exchange settlement and sales is when the exchange of RMB and foreign exchange occurs.
2. The difference between principal and loan
The difference between deposit and loan
The difference between deposit and loan , that is, the difference between deposits and loans. For example, if the deposit of a bank is 1 billion, it is 200 million. A bank can be a single bank, or it can be a bank. If we think of banks across the country as one bank, without considering gold and foreign exchange, bank loans will always be equal to bank deposits plus cash in circulation. , in this case, there will never be a deposit-loan gap in the banking system.
Chinese name
Difference between deposits and loans
Foreign name
Badloan
In the presence of foreign exchange and gold Under the circumstances, due to the different ways of converting foreign exchange and gold into currency, there will be a deposit-loan gap in the banking system.
For example, the country has 800 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves. This 800 billion U.S. dollars serves as shadow currency. It is not converted into currency through creditor's rights and debt relationships. It is converted into currency through buying and selling relationships. The central bank acquires 400 billion yuan. At this time, the central bank’s assets are 800 billion U.S. dollars and its liabilities (or deposits and cash) are 640 billion yuan. Obviously, these 640 billion yuan in deposits or cash will Become the deposit-loan gap in the banking system. The principle of gold creating the deposit-loan gap in the banking system is similar to the principle of foreign exchange creating the deposit-loan gap, so we will not repeat it here.
For a single bank, regardless of whether there is foreign exchange and gold, it may have a deposit-loan gap. Shadow currency conversion can also be done at more than one bank. When shadow currency is converted into cash, the problem of the difference between deposits and loans of a single bank is solved, and the country sets up an inter-bank lending market. For example, Zhang San pledged 1 billion shadow currency to the Bank of China to borrow 800 million yuan, and Zhang San deposited the borrowed 800 million yuan into the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. At this time, the Bank of China had 800 million yuan of creditor assets, and at the same time, an additional 800 million yuan was added. Debt to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China may reduce deposits by 800 million. If the Bank of China only has 500 million in deposits, then the Bank of China may borrow 300 million in currency from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which includes the so-called deposit-loan gap problem. Interbanks (note that it is a bank! It is a bank with a deposit difference, and a bank with net debt is a bank with a loan difference.
If the deposit and loan difference in the banking system is caused by the conversion of foreign exchange or gold into currency, We have to solve the problem of deposit-loan gap. As for the deposit-loan gap problem between banks, there will always be differences in the scale of loans. It is easy to solve these problems based on the relationship between creditor and debt.
When a person takes a loan, the person has savings. When a person's loan is greater than the deposit, the person has negative savings. Without considering gold and foreign exchange, since the loan = cash deposit, if the cash is regarded as a deposit. Processing, then loans = deposits.
Circular economics also tells us that society can be dissected into six people and simplified into natural persons and enterprises. If natural persons and enterprises are then transformed into enterprises, society will only consist of enterprises and natural persons. From a human perspective, China's so-called high-savings country is a country where natural persons make deposits and loans. In China, the one who collects funds is naturally the one who makes money. Since loans are a party of natural persons, deposits are a party of enterprises.
It must be pointed out that people who have savings are not necessarily rich, and people who have no savings are not necessarily poor. There are also non-monetary assets. For example, Zhang San has 10 million stock assets, and Zhang San has 100,000 bank loans. Li Si has 100,000 bank deposits, but Li Si has no other assets. In this case Next, although Li Si has more savings than Zhang San, Zhang San is still richer than Li Si. What determines whether a person has money or not is his total assets, not just his monetary assets.
Deposit and loan interest rates are discussed separately, that is, deposit interest rates and loan interest rates. Deposit and loan interest rates used to be the main business income of banks, accounting for a large share of the bank, and are also the main business of the bank. Deposit and loan interest rates They all change with the changes in deposit reserves, and they are all in the same direction, but there is no linear relationship. Generally speaking, the deposit interest rate is lower than the loan interest rate under the same circumstances, which is the deposit and loan interest rate
When banks take deposits, they need to pay interest to depositors - deposit interest
When banks issue loans, they charge interest from lenders - loan interest
Loan interest>Deposit interest. Interest. This is certain and certain.
Loan interest - deposit interest = deposit and loan interest rate difference.
Banks make money from the interest rate difference between deposits and loans.
RMB deposit interest rate table
Please select a time to view the corresponding interest rate date: 2007-12-21
Item
Annual interest rate %
1. Deposits of urban and rural residents and entities
(1) Current deposit 0.72
(2) Fixed term
1. Whole deposits and withdrawals
Three months 3.33
Half a year 3.78
One year 4.14
Two years 4.68
Three years 5.40
Five years 5.85
2. Partial deposits and lump sum withdrawals, lump sum deposits and lump sum withdrawals, principal deposits and interest withdrawals
One year 3.33
Three years: 3.78
Five years: 4.14
3. Fixed deposit and withdrawal for two years will be discounted at 40% off the same grade of interest rate for regular deposits and withdrawals within one year
2. Agreement deposit 1.53
3. Call deposit.
One day 1.17
Seven days 1.71
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Loan interest:
RMB loan interest rate table
Please select a time to view the corresponding interest rate Date: 2007-12-21
Type items
Annual interest rate (%)
1. Short-term loans
Within six months (including six months) 6.57
Six months to one year (including one year) 7.47
2. Medium and long-term loans
One to three years (including three years) 7.56
Three to Five years (including five years) 7.74
Over five years 7.83
3. Discount
The discount is determined by adding points as the lower limit of the rediscount rate
Note: Comparison table of previous deposit interest adjustments of the People's Bank of China
From the above data, loan interest rate - deposit interest rate = almost 5%-7% (annual interest rate)
Attachment: Beibei District Statistics Bureau 2005-10-8
The difference between deposits and loans has expanded and the loan-to-deposit ratio has declined
──A brief analysis of the difference between deposits and loans of financial institutions in Beibei since Chongqing was directly governed
With the rapid development of my country's financial industry, the financial industry has penetrated into all aspects of social and economic activities, its status in the national economy has been continuously strengthened, and it plays a decisive role. The financial industry has become an important lever for macro-control of the national economy. Through monetary policy, the state uses financial control measures such as loan limits and interest rates to timely regulate the money supply and structure, thereby achieving the optimal allocation of resources, upgrading of industries, and changes in the economic structure. Improvement to achieve the purpose of regulating the scale, speed and efficiency of economic development. Since Chongqing was directly under the jurisdiction of Chongqing, Beibei District's economy has developed continuously and healthily. As of 2004, the district's GDP had reached 8.097 billion yuan, an increase of 3.639 billion yuan over 1997, with an average annual growth rate of 9.8%. The good economic development situation has provided a superior development environment for the financial industry. The financial industry in our district has developed rapidly, and deposits and loans have increased significantly, which has played a beneficial regulating role in the economic development of our district. With the continuous deepening of the socialist market economy, the deposit-loan gap of financial institutions in our region has turned from negative to positive and has gradually expanded. The capital market has obviously "oversupply", which has raised new topics for optimizing the reasonable allocation of social capital resources. This article briefly analyzes the causes of the deposit-loan gap among financial institutions in our district since the direct jurisdiction, providing useful reference for leaders at all levels and financial enterprises.
1. The current situation of the deposit-loan gap of financial institutions in our region
1. Various deposits are growing rapidly. In 2004, the deposit balance of various financial institutions in the region exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.017 billion yuan, an increase of 7.195 billion yuan over 1997, with an average annual growth of 19.8%. From a structural analysis: First, corporate deposits grew rapidly. Since the direct administration, our district has closely focused on economic construction and made industrial enterprises bigger and stronger. The number of industrial enterprises above designated size in the district increased from 88 in 1998 to 143 in 2004, and the total profit increased from a loss of 170.6 million yuan. to a profit of 225.06 million yuan. The increase in the number of enterprises and the steady improvement of economic benefits have increased corporate deposits from 846.85 million yuan in 1997 to 2874.25 million yuan in 2004, an average annual growth of 19.1%. Second, residents’ savings deposits increased significantly. The continuous development of the economy has continuously improved the income level of urban and rural residents in our district. The per capita disposable income of urban residents increased from 4,249 yuan in 1997 to 8,991 yuan in 2004, and the per capita net income of rural residents increased from 2,060 yuan in 1997 to 2004. of 3,280 yuan, an increase of 4,742 yuan and 1,220 yuan respectively. The savings balance of urban and rural residents increased from 1,814.63 million yuan in 1997 to 7,107.31 million yuan in 2004, and the per capita savings deposit increased by 8,047 yuan.
2. Loan growth is relatively slow. In 2004, the loan balance of financial institutions was 5,078.01 million yuan, an increase of only 2,011.56 million yuan compared with 1997. The average annual growth rate was only 7.5%, which was 12.3 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of deposit balances. The main reasons for the slow loan growth are: First, affected by the Asian financial crisis and low corporate credit ratings, the banking industry is afraid of lending. Second, due to the influence of national macroeconomic policies, the banking industry has become reluctant to lend.
Third, enterprises’ awareness of loan repayment has increased, and the withdrawal of corporate loans has accelerated.
3. The deposit-loan gap of financial institutions turned from negative to positive and continues to expand. In 1997, the loan balance of financial institutions in our district was greater than the deposit balance, and the difference between deposits and loans was negative. However, starting from 1998, the difference between deposits and loans turned from negative to positive. The deposit difference replaced the loan difference and became the new state of the operation of financial institutions in our district, and it has been expanding year by year. trend. In 1998, the difference between deposits and loans was 323.98 million yuan. There was a substantial increase in 1999 and 2000, with an increase of 120.8% and 96.0% respectively. The growth rate in subsequent years exceeded 28%. At the end of 2004, the difference between deposits and loans of financial institutions in our district reached 4,938.8 million yuan, an increase of 1,125.03 million yuan or 29.5% over the end of the previous year. The loan-to-deposit ratio dropped from 1.09 in 1997 to 0.55 in 2004. By the end of August 2005, the difference between deposits and loans in our district had reached 5,697.92 million yuan, and the loan-to-deposit ratio was 0.47.
Table of the difference between deposits and loans since Beibei District was directly under the jurisdiction
The balance of deposits at the end of the year (10,000 yuan) increased by % over the end of the previous year. The balance of loans at the end of the year (10,000 yuan) increased by % over the end of the previous year. Difference (10,000 yuan) loan-to-deposit ratio
1997 28217227.530664534.3-244731.09
1998 36108528.03286877.2323980.91
1999 43923821.636770011.971 5380.84
2000 51191916.53717151.11402040.73
2001 58380314.03909485.21928550.67
2002 68673517.643873712.22479980.64
200384947723.74681006.73813770.55
2004 100168117.95078018.54938800.51
4. The loan-to-deposit ratio of financial institutions in our district is the lowest. Among the nine districts in the urban developed economic circle, except for Yuzhong District, which has a negative deposit-loan difference, the other districts are all positive, and only Yuzhong District has a deposit-loan ratio greater than 1. The deposit-loan ratio of our district at the end of 2004 was 0.51, which was 0.47 at the end of August 2005, while the loan-to-deposit ratios in the remaining seven districts were all above 0.60.
Comparison table of deposit-loan difference and loan-deposit ratio in urban developed economic circle at the end of 2004 and the end of August 2005
District name at the end of 2004 and the end of August 2005
Deposit Loan difference (100 million yuan) Deposit-loan ratio Deposit-loan difference (100 million yuan) Deposit-loan ratio
Beibei District 49.390.5156.980.47
Yuzhong District-225.591.22-231.141.23
Shapingba District 93.950.64102.850.64
Jiulongpo District 114.870.71103.230.75
Nan'an District 47.900.7661.080.73
Jiangbei District 100.520.6291.610.64
Dadukou District 23.830.6021.940.66
Yubei District 72.060.6081.030.61
Banan District 36.100.6340.070 .60
2. The main reasons for the expanding gap between deposits and loans
1. The rigid growth of deposits. Since the direct administration, the economy of our region has grown steadily, and the income level of urban and rural residents has further improved. From 1997 to 2004, the average salary of on-the-job employees, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, and the per capita net income of farmers increased by an average of 13.8%, 11.3%, and 6.9% annually. In the current situation where expenditures on housing, education, and medical care have significantly expanded, the social security system is still imperfect, employment pressure is increasing, the investment channels available to urban and rural residents are relatively narrow, and urban and rural residents are uncertain about their expected future income, residents continue to The precautionary nature of currency shows strong rigid growth of savings, and the savings balance of urban and rural residents increases at an annual rate of 21.5%. In addition, enterprises continue to improve their business models, with rapid profit growth and increased self-owned funds. Enterprises' dependence on bank loans has been relatively weakened. Since the direct administration, corporate deposits have increased by 2,027.4 million yuan.
2. New loans are weak. In order to reduce bank risks, the country has introduced a series of macro policies to raise the threshold for bank loans. While banks themselves have strengthened their review and control, they have also turned their attention to large enterprises with strong loan repayment capabilities. Small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulty in financing and getting loans. situation. At the same time, the credit rating of enterprises is not high, and defaults and evasion of loans occur from time to time. Especially due to the impact of the "three funds and three chaos", banks are still hesitant and fearful of lending. On the other hand, in order to accelerate the improvement of the quality of bank credit assets and enhance their ability to resist risks, and in conjunction with the stock reform and listing of several major commercial banks, my country has increased efforts to divest non-performing assets and write off bad debt loans. From 2003 to 2004, ICBC in our district , China Construction Bank divested non-performing assets and wrote off bad debts amounting to 473 million yuan, and from January to August 2005, it amounted to 382 million yuan. These factors have led to the reduction of bank credit balances in our region and the expansion of bank book deposit balances.
3. The impact of the expanding gap between deposits and loans
1. The widening gap between deposits and loans and the decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio are not conducive to the development of the financial system itself. Since the direct administration, the deposit-loan gap in our district has continued to expand, and the deposit-loan ratio has continued to decline. In 2004, the district's deposit-loan gap was 15 times that of 1998, an increase of 5.184 billion yuan from 1997. The deposit-loan ratio dropped from 1.09 in 1997 to 2004. 0.51 in 2018, a decrease of 58 percentage points. The higher the loan-to-deposit ratio, the higher the risk of non-performing loans, but the stronger the current profitability; conversely, the lower the loan-to-deposit ratio, the lower the risk, the lower the current profitability will be. If the financial sector does not invest a certain proportion of funds, but has to bear the corresponding deposit interest, that is, the continuous decline in the loan-to-deposit ratio will lead to a reduction in the profit margins of financial institutions. This is contrary to the nature of banks and will eventually lead to the collapse of the banking industry. Business is in trouble.
2. The growth of financial loans is not coordinated with economic growth, which is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the economy. Economic growth requires investment and financial support, which triggers demand for loans. Loan growth is the guarantee of economic growth. Therefore, generally speaking, there is a high correlation between financial loans and economic aggregates. From 1997 to 2004, the GDP of our district increased from 4.458 billion yuan to 8.097 billion yuan, an average annual growth rate of 9.8% at constant prices. However, during the same period, the average annual growth rate of financial institution loan balances was only 7.5%, which was higher than the average annual growth rate of GDP. It is 2.3 percentage points lower than the average annual growth rate of RMB loans of financial institutions in the city and 2.7 percentage points lower. It shows that the support of financial loans to economic growth in our district needs to be further strengthened. If the effective use and sustained growth of loans from financial institutions are not solved, the healthy and sustainable development of the economy in our district will be hindered.
3. The contradiction between loan supply and demand is prominent, which is not conducive to accelerating the development of enterprises. Due to the continuous and rapid increase in bank deposits, bank funds are abundant, but effective demand from enterprises is insufficient, resulting in an increasingly prominent contradiction between the supply and demand of funds between banks and enterprises. This is manifested in the following: on the one hand, banks have funds and are unable to lend, and on the other hand they dare not lend; Businesses cannot get loans for their needs. Most enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are willing to use bank loans to solve their funding problems if conditions permit. However, the low credit rating of enterprises and insufficient mortgage guarantees are the main reasons why banks dare not lend and are cautious in lending. However, bank loan qualification approval is strict. The contradiction between cumbersome procedures and low quality of the enterprises themselves has resulted in many enterprises being unable to obtain loans. How to resolve the current contradiction between banks and enterprises and achieve a win-win situation between banks and enterprises is a top priority. Otherwise, the development of enterprises will be slow and their stamina will be insufficient.
4. Correctly understand the gap between deposits and loans, and achieve a reasonable allocation of financial resources
The continuous increase in the gap between deposits and loans indicates that some of the deposit capital resources have not been optimally allocated, resulting in regional Funds are wasted or lost. It is necessary to give full play to the regulatory and guiding role of monetary policy and build an efficient connection mechanism between supply and demand of credit funds, so as to better play the role of effective allocation of funds, improve the efficiency of fund use in the whole society, and better support the rapid development of the national economy.
1. Government departments should take improving the financial market and optimizing the financial environment as the main tasks of macroeconomic regulation, and effectively solve the problem of corporate financing difficulties. The first is to establish a diversified financing market so that enterprises can obtain funds from multiple channels. Second, government departments and banks should re-examine the policy of "grasping the big and letting go the small" and lower the "threshold" for small and medium-sized enterprise loans. For a long time, commercial banks have been competing to support large-scale and profitable enterprises, resulting in disorderly competition; while they are unwilling to support small-scale and low-profit enterprises, resulting in a lack of financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises.
2. Enterprises should establish Beibei's honest corporate image and further obtain bank support. Enterprises must proactively adapt to changes in the rules of the banking game and establish an honest corporate image in Beibei. First, improve the financial system. Strictly comply with accounting regulations and commercial bank requirements, establish a comprehensive, accurate, and true financial system, regularly provide comprehensive accounting information to relevant parties, increase information transparency, and improve the "credit image" of the enterprise. Second, repay the principal and interest in a timely manner, establish a good reputation, and establish a good image of keeping promises and honoring contracts. Third, strengthen fund management, mainly to make rational use, speed up turnover, maintain reasonable loan levels, formulate an effective accounts receivable management system, and speed up the withdrawal of funds.
3. Financial institutions must change their concepts, improve various management systems, and give full play to the role of financial institutions in promoting the economy. First of all, banks must fully understand the importance of making profits and making banks full of vitality only through loans, and change the concept of bank deposits. Secondly, establish a new set of credibility evaluation and risk assessment standards, do a good job in market analysis and prospect analysis of the enterprise, and establish a set of credibility and risk assessment standards that are consistent with the development of the enterprise, so as to provide services for large-scale, high-efficiency enterprises. , open up the market and create conditions for a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises with good performance, market and development prospects to obtain loans. Third, improve the loan management system. In terms of loan management methods, the authorization and credit granting system for credit funds should be improved, and loan review and granting powers should be appropriately delegated to other parties to facilitate small and medium-sized enterprises in obtaining funds. Finally, establish and improve the social credit service system, solve the problem of information asymmetry between banks and enterprises, and speed up the transmission of information between banks and enterprises.
4. Create an investment environment and attract large companies to settle in.
Government departments should increase investment promotion efforts, make full use of Beibei's geographical, environmental and resource advantages, continuously improve the soft and hard investment environment, and attract large projects and large enterprises to settle in our district. The arrival of large projects and large enterprises will boost the demand for loans in our region, accelerate the optimization of the rational allocation of funds by financial institutions in Beibei, and thus promote the sustained and stable development of the region's economy.
3. How to improve principal loans
The growth rates of principal, deposits and loans increased by 0.9 and 5.6 percentage points respectively from the end of the first quarter, continuing to maintain rapid growth.
Enhance the independent pricing capabilities of legal entities; optimize deposit interest rate management, promote the stability and decline of bank liability costs, and transmit it to the loan side.
IV. What impact will raising interest rates have on the stock market and futures market?
There are two main factors that affect futures trends, one is supply and demand, and the other is monetary policy. Under normal circumstances, the stock market and futures market are Roughly synchronously, excluding gold, the stock market and the futures market generally fall simultaneously, because economic conditions determine the balance of resource supply and demand, but the price in the futures market is dominated by the US dollar, and changes in US dollar policy may cause divergences between the stock and futures markets. Regardless of the stock or futures market, if the price falls for a long time, the trading volume will shrink. The shrinking trading volume is a signal for the withdrawal of funds. No matter long or short, it is impossible to make money in a market with shrinking trading volume, or it is difficult to make money. In terms of money, only markets with active trading volume can have opportunities to make money.