Zhang Li, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that after August, the price of broilers in China continued to fall. In September, the average price of broilers was 3.02 yuan/chicken, and in June, the average price was 2.85 yuan/chicken in 5438+/kloc-0, which was 5.7% lower than that in the same period last year, with an increase of 57.3%. According to the monitoring of China Animal Husbandry Association, the price of commercial substitute chicks of white feather broilers is at the lowest level in the same period of last three years.
Chicken prices have also been falling this year. The price per ton of 65438+10-April is1.1.0 million yuan to 1.20 million yuan, and the price per ton from April to July is1.1.0 million yuan. After August, although the school started and the consumption of groups and restaurants picked up, the price of chicken fell to more than 9,000 yuan per ton instead of rising. As of June 65438+1October 65438+August, the national average price of chicken products was about 9200 yuan per ton, down 30.5% year-on-year.
Due to the falling price, the loss of domestic broiler breeding has gradually expanded. In September, the purchase price of white feather broilers in front of the shed dropped significantly, about 5 yuan per kilogram. Since June 65438+ 10, the price has rebounded slightly, but it is basically stable at around 5.8 yuan per kilogram. With the continuous increase of feed cost, the loss of broiler farms has increased. According to estimates, the average loss of each broiler in the farm is from 3 yuan to 4 yuan.
As the market continues to slump, the industry has been expecting prices to pick up. So, what will happen later? ? On the whole, the signs of recovery of the meat and poultry industry chain are not obvious, and the industry is still facing difficulties. ? Zhang Li said that due to the market downturn, although the industry has been cutting production capacity, the reduction is limited.
According to the monitoring of China Animal Husbandry Association, the stock of the ancestors of white feather broilers is still at a high level, and the stock of the backup ancestors has begun to decline, which is lower than the same period of 20 19, and the stock of the production ancestors keeps at a high level. Due to the slow process of de-capacity, the pattern of oversupply in the poultry meat market cannot be fundamentally changed in the short term, and the market price will still run at a low level for some time.
From the production point of view, under the background of reduced production capacity, because the industrial chain of poultry meat production is relatively long, breeding chicken production, commodity breeding and slaughtering processing are all links, and the intermediate links cannot be broken, so it will take some time for the overall supply to decrease. At present, the sales of parents and commercial generations of white feather broilers are still at a high level, which means that the reduction of supplementary column is limited.
From the consumption side, there are no favorable factors to stimulate consumption growth in the near future, and market consumption is still in a weak state. At the same time, with the coming of winter, dealers hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the consumer demand in the market outlook, and are cautious about the purchase of chicken products, resulting in a relatively stable delivery speed of slaughterhouse products. Due to the holiday effect of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, consumption is expected to increase at the end of the year, which may push up prices in the short term.
In view of the future trend of chicken, the insiders believe that the number of broilers remains high due to the positive growth of the chicken market last year, and the price of chicken is difficult to rebound in the short term.
Generally speaking, affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19 and other factors including broilers, the poultry market as a whole was tepid this year. Coupled with the recovery of pig production capacity next year, pork prices may return to normal prices, which will have a certain impact on the broiler industry.