The Bank of India cut interest rates for the third time this year.
On June 6th, another central bank made a policy shift. The Bank of India lowered the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, the third time this year. At the same time, the monetary policy stance was changed from "neutral" to "loose". The repurchase rate of 5.75% is the lowest in nine years, while the Bank of India lowered the reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%.
The Fed hinted at a rate cut.
Earlier, both the chairman and vice chairman of the Federal Reserve said that "appropriate policies will be adopted to support economic growth", which was widely interpreted as interest rate cuts, which also made the market feel a little excited.
The latest federal interest rate futures suggest that the probability of interest rate cuts during the year is over 90%, and the probability of interest rate cuts twice or more is over 70%. Historically, if the probability exceeds 70%, it will really happen. Market analysis tends to think that the Fed may cut interest rates 1-2 times this year. The first time is more likely to be in September, when it can be confirmed whether the US economy is really weakening. The second time, if there is, it may have to wait until 65438+February.
The main reason for the interest rate cut is that the US economy has weakened and the global currency has officially returned to easing. Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of private consumption and private fixed asset investment, which can best represent the kinetic energy of the US economy, has dropped significantly. In May, the US manufacturing PMI also fell back to 52. 1%, the lowest since June 20 16. The weakening economy led to the unchanged Fed.
Central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, have recently become pigeons. It was widely expected that global central banks would raise interest rates this year, but now they "last stand" and expect to cut interest rates instead. The European Central Bank originally planned to raise interest rates this year, but the austerity has ended before it started, and a new round of targeted long-term refinancing operation has started. On May 8, the Federal Reserve of New Zealand announced a rate cut, and this week Australia also announced a rate cut. Some analysts believe that the global "interest rate cut tide" is expected to officially kick off.
Domestic funds were tight in June.
In the first two working days of June, China's central bank conducted reverse repurchase in a relatively "rare" way. According to the announcement of the central bank, on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the central bank launched a seven-day reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning bid rate was 2.55%.
According to market analysis, liquidity is generally abundant at the beginning of the month, and the central bank rarely puts money into operation at the beginning of the month. The reason for the release of liquidity this time is that this week's central bank reverse repurchase and MLF centralized maturity may make the short-term capital supply and demand in the market tight and the gap is large. It is understood that the MLF expired 663 billion yuan in June and 885 billion yuan in July, the largest monthly MLF expiration in history. At the same time, in June, financial institutions faced semi-annual assessment, and liquidity was usually tight.
In terms of liquidity, the base currency gap was large in June and July. Ping An Securities believes that the central bank may choose to reduce RRR, or provide liquidity by increasing open market operations and continuing MLF at maturity. The open market operation provides short-term liquidity, and it may be difficult to meet the medium and long-term capital needs of small and medium-sized banks because of rigid break, which will increase the necessity of RRR reduction.
China's RRR cut is expected.
Guo Sheng Securities believes that three major factors will promote monetary easing in China: First, the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut channel will undoubtedly further release the space for monetary policy easing in China; Second, since May, China's PMI, corporate profits, employment status and other data have obviously weakened; Third, the bank takeover at the end of May actually broke the exchange rate and triggered a short-term liquidity shock.
CICC's fixed income research team believes that from the perspective of the regulatory authorities to resolve risks in the future, injecting liquidity into the banking system is the main way to alleviate the impact. However, the main tool for liquidity last week was reverse repurchase, which has a short term and is more concentrated in large banks, and cannot solve the debt pressure faced by small and medium-sized banks. Therefore, a more effective solution should be to reduce RRR, or at least reduce the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized banks.
TF Securities fixed income research team believes that the current central bank should first fill the debt gap of small and medium-sized banks. Small and medium-sized banks need more extensive, longer-term and lower-cost liquidity support to further play their role in supporting small and micro banks. RRR reduction is a suitable choice, and the time may be June.
Guo Sheng Securities also believes that China's currency will continue to be loose, and RRR can cut interest rates, possibly in June at the earliest, and the possibility of cutting interest rates will gradually increase, and the benchmark interest rate will not be ruled out. He said that it is worth pointing out that if the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans is subsequently lowered, this may be a relatively poor situation. Since almost only the mortgage interest rate is still linked to the benchmark interest rate, lowering the benchmark also means loosening the real estate.
CITIC Securities believes that China's monetary policy interest rate instruments can be more flexible. In the long run, we can appropriately follow the global monetary policy to reduce the policy interest rate, or consider further reducing the TMLF interest rate, so as to achieve the purpose of reducing the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises.
However, the market also has different views on reducing RRR and cutting interest rates. China securities journal reported that the RRR cut in June is possible, but it may not be the first choice. The signal of RRR reduction is too strong to be a better choice. In addition, the current economic resilience is sufficient, the overall operation is stable, and there needs to be room for macro-policy regulation to cope with sudden demand. On June 17, the central bank will implement a lower deposit reserve ratio policy for small and medium-sized banks for the second time. On this basis, it is unlikely that RRR will be further lowered. In June, the liquidity management of the central bank may rely more on the combination of open market reverse repurchase +MLF.
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It is for investors' reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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