Members, Roger Ferguson, Board of Directors, Edward Gramridge, Board of Directors, Donald cohen, Board of Directors, Mark W. Olson, Board of Directors, Jerry Jordan, Cleveland, Cleveland Fed President Robert McTeer, Dallas, Dallas Fed President Anthony San Tomero, Philadelphia Fed President Gary Stern, Minneapolis, Alternate members of Minneapolis Fed Alfred Broaddus, Richmond, Richmond Fed President Michael Moscow, Chicago, Chicago Fed President Jack Guen, Atlanta, Atlanta Fed President Robert Parry, San Francisco, San Francisco Fed President Thomas Honegger, Kansas City.
Interest rate: the interest rate, that is, the federal funds rate, is the most important interest rate indicator, and it is also the overnight lending rate for mutual loans between savings institutions. When the Fed wants to send a clear monetary policy signal to the market, it will announce a new interest rate level. Every such announcement will cause great turmoil in the stock, bond and currency markets. m P~ zA7ChR
Discount rate: the discount rate is the interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve when commercial banks apply for loans due to emergencies such as reserves. Although this is a symbolic interest rate indicator, its change will also express a strong policy signal. The discount rate is usually lower than the federal funds rate.
30-year treasury bonds: 30-year treasury bonds, also known as long-term bonds, are the most important indicators to measure inflation in the market. Many times, the market measures the level of bonds by their yields rather than prices. Like all creditor's rights, 30-year treasury bonds are negatively correlated with prices. There is no clear relationship between the exchange rate of long-term bonds and the US dollar, but there is generally the following relationship: because inflation leads to a decline in bond prices, that is, an increase in yield, the US dollar may be under pressure. These considerations may be caused by some economic data. However, with the implementation of the US Treasury's plan of "borrowing new debts to repay old debts", the circulation of 30-year bonds began to shrink, and then the position of 30-year bonds as a benchmark began to give way to 10-year bonds. According to the different stages of the economic cycle, some economic indicators have different effects on the US dollar: when inflation does not become a threat to the economy, strong economic indicators will support the US dollar exchange rate; When the threat of inflation to the economy is obvious, strong economic indicators will suppress the exchange rate of the US dollar, and one of the means is to sell bonds. Jin Huitong Forum $ B6IK2K 1 @ o $} |
As the benchmark of asset level, long-term bonds are usually affected by global capital flows. Financial or turmoil in emerging markets will push up dollar assets. At this time, dollar assets, as a hedging tool, will indirectly push up the dollar exchange rate.
3-month Eurodollar deposit: 3-month Eurodollar deposit. Eurodollar refers to dollar deposits in foreign banks in the United States. For example, Japanese yen deposits in Japanese banks at home and abroad are called "European yen". This difference in deposit interest rates can be used as a valuable benchmark for evaluating foreign exchange interest rates. Take USD/JPY as an example. When the positive difference between Eurodollar and Euroyen deposits is large, the USD/JPY exchange rate is more likely to be supported. StCxb8FC3S#q
10-year treasury bonds: 10-year short-term treasury bonds. When comparing the yields of similar bonds between countries, we usually use 10-year short-term treasury bonds. The yield difference between bonds will affect the exchange rate. If the return on US dollar assets is high, the US dollar exchange rate will be pushed up.
Ministry of Finance: Ministry of Finance. The U.S. Treasury Department is responsible for issuing government bonds and making budgets. The Ministry of Finance has no say in monetary policy, but its comments on the US dollar may have a greater impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar.
Economic data: Economic data. Among the economic data released by the United States, the most important ones include: labor force report (salary level, unemployment rate and average hourly wage), CPI (consumer price index), PPI, GDP (gross domestic product), international trade level, industrial production, housing starts, housing permits and consumer confidence.
Stock market: the stock market. The three major stock indexes are: Dow and S & amp；; Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq Nasdaq Index. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has the greatest impact on the US dollar exchange rate. Since the mid-1990s, there has been a great positive correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US dollar exchange rate (because foreign investors buy American assets). The three main factors that affect the Dow Jones Industrial Average are: 1) company income, including expected income and actual income; 2) Expectation of interest rate level; 3) Global political and economic situation.
Cross exchange rate effect: cross exchange rate effect. The rise and fall of the cross will also affect the exchange rate of the US dollar. 3c8ng YrxC BW0y
Federal funds rate futures contract: Federal funds rate futures contract. This contract value shows the market's expectation of the federal funds rate (related to the contract expiration date), which is the most direct measure of the Fed's policy. bbs.fxbest.com8R+`%K(g9nU4r？ F
3-month euro-dollar futures contract: 3-month euro-dollar futures contract. Like the federal funds rate futures contract, the three-month Eurodollar futures contract will also have an impact on the three-month Eurodollar deposit. For example, the spread between the three-month Eurodollar futures contract and the three-month Euroyen futures contract is the basic change that determines the future trend of USD/JPY.
The basic factors of the dollar
The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, referred to as the Federal Reserve, is the central bank of the United States, which formulates monetary policy completely independently to ensure the maximum non-inflationary economic growth. The main policy indicators of the Federal Reserve include: open market operation, discount rate and federal funds rate.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): The FOMC is mainly responsible for formulating monetary policy, including making eight announcements on key interest rate adjustments every year. FOMC*** has 65,438+02 members, namely, 7 government officials, the governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and 4 members elected from other governors of 65,438+065,438+0 local federal reserve banks for a term of one year. Alan Greenspan, Board, Federal Reserve Chairman william mcdonough, New York, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Ben Bernanke, Board, Susan Schmidt Bies, Board, Member Roger Ferguson, Board, Member Edward Gramlich, Board, Member Donald Kohn, Board, Member Mark W. Olson, Board of Directors, Member Jerry Jordan, Cleveland, Cleveland Fed President Robert McTeer, Dallas, Dallas Fed President Anthony Santomero, Philadelphia Fed President Gary Stern, Minneapolis, Minneapolis Fed President Alternate Member Alfred Broaddus, Richmond, Richmond Fed President Michael Moscow, Chicago, Chicago Fed President Jack Gunn, Atlanta, Atlanta Fed President Robert Parry, San Francisco, San Francisco Fed President Thomas Honegger, Kansas City Fed President Cathy Minehan, Boston Fed President William Poole, St. Louis Fed President, St. Louis Fed President.
Interest rate: the interest rate, that is, the federal funds rate, is the most important interest rate indicator, and it is also the overnight lending rate for mutual loans between savings institutions. When the Fed wants to send a clear monetary policy signal to the market, it will announce a new interest rate level. Every such announcement will cause great turmoil in the stock, bond and currency markets.
Discount rate: the discount rate is the interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve when commercial banks apply for loans due to emergencies such as reserves. Although this is a symbolic interest rate indicator, its change will also express a strong policy signal. The discount rate is usually lower than the federal funds rate.
30-year treasury bonds: 30-year treasury bonds, also known as long-term bonds, are the most important indicators to measure inflation in the market. Many times, the market measures the level of bonds by their yields rather than prices. Like all creditor's rights, 30-year treasury bonds are negatively correlated with prices. There is no clear relationship between the exchange rate of long-term bonds and the US dollar, but there is generally the following relationship: because inflation leads to a decline in bond prices, that is, an increase in yield, the US dollar may be under pressure. These considerations may be caused by some economic data. However, with the implementation of the US Treasury's plan of "borrowing new debts to repay old debts", the circulation of 30-year bonds began to shrink, and then the position of 30-year bonds as a benchmark began to give way to 10-year bonds. According to the different stages of the economic cycle, some economic indicators have different effects on the US dollar: when inflation does not become a threat to the economy, strong economic indicators will support the US dollar exchange rate; When the threat of inflation to the economy is obvious, strong economic indicators will suppress the exchange rate of the US dollar, and one of the means is to sell bonds.
As the benchmark of asset level, long-term bonds are usually affected by global capital flows. Financial or turmoil in emerging markets will push up dollar assets. At this time, dollar assets as a hedging tool will indirectly push up the dollar exchange rate.